CANADIAN READOUT ON DEATH OF MULLAH NAQIBULLA

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 001966

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA, INR, AND WHA/CAN
DEFENSE FOR OSD - L. DURHAM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2027
TAGS: PREL MOPS AF CA
SUBJECT: CANADIAN READOUT ON DEATH OF MULLAH NAQIBULLA

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)



1. (/NF) Summary. Canadian officials are concerned about
the power vacuum left in the wake of the death of Mullah
Naqibullah (Naqib) in Kandahar, as well as likely diminished
loyalty to the central government from the Alokozai tribe and
greater dangers for NATO-ISAF operations in the Arghandab
District and elsewhere. End Summary.

Canadian Readout
--------------


2. (C/NF) According to a reliable Department of Foreign
Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) Afghanistan Task
Force (FTAG) contact, former Mujahideen leader Naqib was the
respected tribal elder of the Alokozai tribe and the main
power-broker in the Arghandab area north of Kandahar City.
As perhaps the third most powerful person in the Kandahar
region after the governor and President Karzai's brother
Wali, Naqib had done much to keep a lid on the insurgency in
Arghandab and nearby parts of Kandahar. Naqib's death on
October 11 along with Karzai's "stunt" of naming the dead
leader's younger brother Halimallah as his successor could
exacerbate growing political tensions in Arghandab, he
predicted.


3. (C/NF) Our contact emphasized that it was too early to
understand fully the implication of Naqib's death on security
and politics in Kandahar. Reading from briefing notes,
however, he identified what the GOC viewed as critical points
influencing likely outcomes:

-- There was no natural successor to Naqib, and his well
consolidated power base was built on personal achievements in
the fight against the Soviets. While there were few people
of Naqib's stature in the whole of Afghanistan, tribal and
regional political leaders attending his burial had told the
Canadians that Malim Akbar, an influential Alokozai from
Khakrez, Haji Agha Lalai, an Alokozai member of the Kanadhar
Provincial Council, and Abdul Hakim Jan of Arghandab each had
a more valid claim to succeed Naqib than did Halimallah.
Naqib's younger brother, they groused, had only appealed to
President Karzai;

-- The power vacuum left by Naqib and not truly filled by
Halimallah could lead to greater instability, which would
provide political opportunities for the Taliban to exploit in
and north of Kandahar City, particularly in the districts of
Arghandab, Shah Wali Kot, and Khakrez;

-- Naqib's death could also degrade the influential position
the Alkozai have enjoyed in Kandahar Province. It puts in
jeopardy the clan's loyalty to Hamid Karzai's national
government. Most influential Alokozai tribe members
recognize that benefits have accrued to them due to their
support for the central government. Such loyalty is now less
sure than at any time in the past few years, given Naqib's
death. For example, recently tribal elders threatened to
withdraw their support for the government after it charged an
influential tribe member with a crime.


4. (C/NF) Canadian PRT members have focused added attention
in and near Arghandab, where they are trying to determine the
best way to stabilize the area. Our contact mentioned
Canadian wariness about increasing patrols due to push-back
from Halimallah and other Alokozai tribal leaders, who argue
that stepped-up ISAF patrols could stimulate and attract
insurgent activity. The Canadians also worried that an
increased coalition military presence in the area could add
Qincreased coalition military presence in the area could add
credibility to the spurious rumor that Coalition Forces had
poisoned Naqib.

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WILKINS