CANADIAN READOUT ON DEATH OF MULLAH NAQIBULLA

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 001966 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA, INR, AND WHA/CAN DEFENSE FOR OSD - L. DURHAM E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2027 TAGS: PREL MOPS AF CA SUBJECT: CANADIAN READOUT ON DEATH OF MULLAH NAQIBULLA Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (/NF) Summary. Canadian officials are concerned about the power vacuum left in the wake of the death of Mullah Naqibullah (Naqib) in Kandahar, as well as likely diminished loyalty to the central government from the Alokozai tribe and greater dangers for NATO-ISAF operations in the Arghandab District and elsewhere. End Summary. Canadian Readout -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) According to a reliable Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) Afghanistan Task Force (FTAG) contact, former Mujahideen leader Naqib was the respected tribal elder of the Alokozai tribe and the main power-broker in the Arghandab area north of Kandahar City. As perhaps the third most powerful person in the Kandahar region after the governor and President Karzai's brother Wali, Naqib had done much to keep a lid on the insurgency in Arghandab and nearby parts of Kandahar. Naqib's death on October 11 along with Karzai's "stunt" of naming the dead leader's younger brother Halimallah as his successor could exacerbate growing political tensions in Arghandab, he predicted. ¶3. (C/NF) Our contact emphasized that it was too early to understand fully the implication of Naqib's death on security and politics in Kandahar. Reading from briefing notes, however, he identified what the GOC viewed as critical points influencing likely outcomes: -- There was no natural successor to Naqib, and his well consolidated power base was built on personal achievements in the fight against the Soviets. While there were few people of Naqib's stature in the whole of Afghanistan, tribal and regional political leaders attending his burial had told the Canadians that Malim Akbar, an influential Alokozai from Khakrez, Haji Agha Lalai, an Alokozai member of the Kanadhar Provincial Council, and Abdul Hakim Jan of Arghandab each had a more valid claim to succeed Naqib than did Halimallah. Naqib's younger brother, they groused, had only appealed to President Karzai; -- The power vacuum left by Naqib and not truly filled by Halimallah could lead to greater instability, which would provide political opportunities for the Taliban to exploit in and north of Kandahar City, particularly in the districts of Arghandab, Shah Wali Kot, and Khakrez; -- Naqib's death could also degrade the influential position the Alkozai have enjoyed in Kandahar Province. It puts in jeopardy the clan's loyalty to Hamid Karzai's national government. Most influential Alokozai tribe members recognize that benefits have accrued to them due to their support for the central government. Such loyalty is now less sure than at any time in the past few years, given Naqib's death. For example, recently tribal elders threatened to withdraw their support for the government after it charged an influential tribe member with a crime. ¶4. (C/NF) Canadian PRT members have focused added attention in and near Arghandab, where they are trying to determine the best way to stabilize the area. Our contact mentioned Canadian wariness about increasing patrols due to push-back from Halimallah and other Alokozai tribal leaders, who argue that stepped-up ISAF patrols could stimulate and attract insurgent activity. The Canadians also worried that an increased coalition military presence in the area could add Qincreased coalition military presence in the area could add credibility to the spurious rumor that Coalition Forces had poisoned Naqib. Visit our shared North American Partnership blog (Canada & Mexico) at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap WILKINS