CANADA'S NEW FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTER MAXIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001587 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR INR/B E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL CA SUBJECT: CANADA'S NEW FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTER MAXIME BERNIER Classified By: Acting POLCOUNS Keith Mines, reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Maxime Bernier has enjoyed a swift rise in his eighteen-month career in federal politics, becoming only the fifth Quebecer to serve as Canada's Foreign Affairs minister following a shuffle of cabinet responsibilities on August 14, 2007. Bernier is regarded as an ambitious, smart "up and comer" whom Harper believes has "earned a new challenge," but, as a former businessman, he enters foreign affairs largely with a blank slate. His lack of experience will likely allow Harper to continue to drive Canada's foreign policy. As a polished communicator in French (though less so in English),Bernier is expected to be a highly visible Quebec representative in cabinet, as well as a salesman for government policies on Afghanistan in his home province as the Conservatives adjust their political messaging on the mission. END SUMMARY THE MINISTER -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Maxime Bernier (b. 01/18/63 in Beauce, Quebec) is a businessman and lawyer who was elected to Canada's Parliament for the first time in the January 2006 federal election. Bernier comes from a family that is well-known in his constituency of Beauce, located south of Quebec City, Quebec, which his father Gilles Bernier also represented in Parliament from 1984 to 1997, initially as a Progressive Conservative and later as an Independent M.P. His father served as Canada's Ambassador to Haiti from 1997 to 2001. ¶3. (SBU) Prior to his election to Parliament, Bernier was Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Communications for the Standard Life of Canada insurance company and Director of Business and International Relations at the Commission des Valeurs Mobilieres du Quebec from 2003 to 2005. Bernier is also a former vice president of the Montreal Economic Institute, a Quebec think tank advocating smaller government, and has worked as a legislative assistant for the Office of the Deputy Premier of Quebec. We understand Minister Bernier is married with two young daughters but he keeps his private life on close hold. ¶4. (SBU) Young, telegenic and a smooth communicator in French, Bernier is regarded as an ambitious up and coming politician whom the Prime Minister can rely on to stay on message. Some have even talked about Bernier as a possible future Conservative leader. Bernier is ideologically compatible with Harper on economic issues and has built a reputation as a strong, highly partisan performer in the House of Commons. He is a relentless baiter of the opposition Bloc Qubcois on national unity. ¶5. (SBU) Bernier was one of ten Conservative MPs elected in 2006; he won his riding with 67% of the vote, a significant feat. Bernier was appointed Minister of Industry in February ¶2006. An enthusiastic proponent of free-markets, his laissez-faire philosophy, particularly in the deregulation of local telephone markets, sometimes put him at odds with fellow cabinet ministers, consumer groups and Quebec politics, where government intervention in business is widely accepted. The Embassy dealt with Minister Bernier on important bilateral matters, including the 2006 softwood lumber agreement and on intellectual property rights protection, and always found him cordial. SELLING AFGHANISTAN QSELLING AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶6. (C) Bernier's promotion from Industry to Foreign Affairs is regarded both as a "nod" to Quebec, where the Tories want to raise their visibility, and as an admission of the need to sell the controversial Afghanistan mission in that province, which is key to Harper politically. The need to improve political messaging on Afghanistan appears to be the major theme of the cabinet shuffle prompted by the reassignment (and effective demotion) of Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor. Bernier, and new Defence Minister Peter MacKay are expected to lead the effort to build a political consensus on the long-term humanitarian and military role of the Canadian Forces in Afghanistan. One analyst believes this will effectively place Bernier in a key role where he can credibly defend the Afghan mission without putting him in the delicate OTTAWA 00001587 002 OF 002 position of being a Quebec-born defense minister if, and when, the casualties mount among soldiers from the Quebec City-based Royal 22nd Regiment (the Vandoos),now in Kandahar. However, Bernier's task will be a tough assignment. Although well-known in his constituency and region, the strictures of cabinet discipline, particularly in a minority situation, have left Quebec politicians few opportunities to develop an independent profile and, without foreign policy experience, Bernier will need time to build credibility on the file. Bernier must also defer to Harper's Quebec lieutenant in Quebec, Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon. STATUS QUO (FOR NOW) IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS -------------- ¶7. (C) Bernier's appointment is not expected to signal a shift in direction in Canadian foreign policy. Bernier has to quickly get up to speed on government priorities such as Arctic sovereignty and free trade in the Americas. At least until he masters his briefs, he is likely to be tightly scripted. Nevertheless, Harper is considered to a large extent, particularly on more important issues, to be his own foreign minister, and, following 9/11, the Privy Council Office (PCO) has played an increasingly important role in policy-making, notably regarding Canada-US relations and the Canada-US border. In contrast to his predecessor Peter MacKay, who some deem to have had a better political handle on the foreign affairs portfolio than technical understanding, Bernier may be the reverse. ¶8. (C) Bernier was seen as a solid performer at Industry, but the Foreign Affairs appointment may still be a calculated risk for the PM. He has longtime experience in international commerce, and he is intimately aware of the important softwood lumber issue, but his political instincts are not thought to be as well-honed. At Industry, he was sometimes at loggerheads with the bureaucracy who considered him an "ideologue." Although bilingual, his spoken English is informal, colloquial, and heavily accented and he sometimes has difficulty in making himself understood. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) The new Minister has vaulted quickly through cabinet ranks to assume one of the most senior portfolios in an area that has been flagged as a government priority - strengthening Canada's international role. In announcing his new cabinet team, Prime Minister Harper reiterated Afghanistan's place as Canada's primary military and foreign policy priority, handing Maxime Bernier a significant challenge. As a relative political neophyte, Bernier's personal and policy priorities are largely unknown. However, he is likely to be strongly attuned to Quebec sensitivities and, given the key role of Quebec in Conservative hopes for a future majority government, may be as much seized with regional concerns as international issues. Visit our shared North American Partnership blog (Canada & Mexico) at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap WILKINS