CANADIANS BACK UNIFIED ALLIANCE RESPONSE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001046 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS STATE PASS EUR/RPM - (G. ROBBINS) E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2027 TAGS: PARM KCFE NATO PREL CA SUBJECT: CANADIANS BACK UNIFIED ALLIANCE RESPONSE TO RUSSIA'S CFE CONCERNS REF: STATE 75293 Classified By: PolMinCouns Brian Flora. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Canada's position on the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) is closely aligned with our own: CFE is critical to European security and the Russians must deliver on their Istanbul Commitments before NATO allies ratify the Adapted CFE (A/CFE). Canada would like to join like-minded allies in a concerted effort to ensure that our position prevails at the Extraordinary Conference called by the Russian Federation. Canadian Ambassador to the OSCE Barbara Gibson will head the Canadian delegation to the Conference, June 12-15. End summary. ¶2. (U) We conveyed reftel demarche to Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade acting NATO/G-8/OSCE Director Isabelle Poupart, and to Department of National Defense (DND) NATO Deputy Director Michael Kaduck on June 1. We followed up with Poupart on June 4. U.S and Canada Share Agree on A/CFE -------------- ¶3. (C) Poupart responded that Canada's position on the Adapted Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty was closely aligned with those of the U.S., the UK, the Netherlands, and "newer NATO members." Canada, she added, would continue to press allies attending the Extraordinary Conference to stick to NATO's long-standing position -- the Russians must deliver on their Istanbul Commitments before NATO allies commence ratification of A/CFE. German Perfidy? -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) Poupart alerted us to a rumor in Vienna that Germany had helped Russia plan its effort to break NATO solidarity on A/CFE. She noted that at various European venues the Germans had recently begun telling NATO members, "Let's find something to offer the Russians." The proposed offering, according to Canadian diplomats, was NATO member ratification of A/CFE without Istanbul pre-conditions. Indeed, Poupart confided, a French official had very recently floated the German proposal to drop A/CFE preconditions in an informal conversation with a Canadian diplomat in Vienna. The Canadian, she said, stuck to his nation's position and pushed back hard. ¶5. (C/NF) Clearly frustrated, the usually circumspect Poupart attributed the German approach to two factors: (1) "old school, legalistic" German non-proliferation experts had managed to convince the GOG that bringing A/CFE into force was a more important immediate good than Russian adherence to its Istanbul Commitments; and, (2) the perceived need to "appease" the Russians in order to enhance Germany's energy security. Solidarity Critical -------------- ¶6. (C) It was critical, Poupart said, for the allies to argue their points and come to consensus well before the start of the Exceptional Conference on June 12, and then to stick to the consensus in the face of Russian, and German, pressure. Canada, the U.S., the UK, and perhaps the Dutch, should consider having a pre-meeting on June 11, she said. The parties could share last-minute assessments and coordinate their approach to the Conference. Canadian Qcoordinate their approach to the Conference. Canadian official experts would soon reach out directly to their counterparts to organize such a meeting. DND's Informal Analysis -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) DND's Kaduck told us that Russia's motivation for calling the CFE Extraordinary Conference remained unclear. Just back from Canada-Russia military staff talks in Moscow, he speculated that Russian complaints about the CFE might be a pretext, part of an effort to fracture NATO solidarity. Russia's "poorly conceived and unpersuasive" laundry list of concerns suggested, he argued, that the Russians had OTTAWA 00001046 002 OF 002 something other than flank entitlements, Istanbul Commitments, and A/CFE ratification in mind. Kaduck said his personal impression was that the Russians were feeling "humiliated and encircled" and were particularly "bugged" by the deployment of U.S. missile defense in Europe (in particular its radar system). While the U.S. and NATO refused to link the disparate elements of defense policy affecting Russia, Kaduck said, the GOR tended to "glue them together and see a plot against (Russia)." Kaduck emphasized that his were personal observations, and that he did not anticipate Russia's unwarranted worries causing a recalibration of Canada's policy settings. Canadian Delegation -------------- ¶8. (U) Canada's Ambassador to the OSCE Barbara Gibson planned to head the Canadian delegation, with support from a team of experts who have decades of combined CFE experience. DFAIT Director General for Policy Planning John Barratt, DND Head of Verification Colonel D.S. Higgins, and DFAIT's Isabelle Poupart will support Ambassador Gibson. Visit our shared North American Partnership blog (Canada & Mexico) at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap WILKINS