GETTING NORWAY TO DO MORE ON AFGHANISTAN:

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000988 SIPDIS SIPDIS USNATO/EXEC (VNULAND) E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2017 TAGS: NATO PREL AF NO SUBJECT: GETTING NORWAY TO DO MORE ON AFGHANISTAN: AMBASSADORS BREAKFAST AND EMBASSY OUTREACH Classified By: Ambassador Benson K. Whitney, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 1.(C) Summary. On September 20 Ambassador Whitney and the local Dutch, Danish, Afghan and Canadian ambassadors participated in a key Afghanistan ally breakfast, hosted by UK Ambassador David Powell. The breakfast covered ways to ensure a renewal (and hopefully, an expansion) of Norway's NATO commitment, particularly with future Operational Mentor and Liaison Team (OMLT) and special forces contributions. The ambassadors concluded that a Norwegian Telemark battalion contribution was unlikely. Building on a theme long advocated by the Embassy, the ambassadors agreed to encourage ways to rally Norwegian public support of Afghanistan, including a possible conference hosted by a Norwegian NGO. The Embassy will continue to urge Afghanistan's Ambassador to Norway Javid Lodin to actively engage Norwegian media, who often do not cover the positives in Afghanistan. End Summary. Afghan Ambassador's Debrief: "There's Only ONE Afghanistan" -------------- -------------- 2.(C) At a September 20 breakfast of ambassadors, Ambassador Lodin (a former Chief of Staff of President Karzai) debriefed on his recent "encouraging" trip to Afghanistan, focusing largely on positives, while quick to point out U.S. assistance. For example, he noted that due to US support Afghanistan is becoming self-sufficient in cereal production. Additionally, the country's still high child mortality rates have plummeted by 30 percent. Lodin highlighted Ford Ranger vehicles provided by Americans, which Lodin credited as engendering confidence in the police, and enhancing their capability--all the while creating positive public support of the US. He lamented that such success stories do not make the media. 3.(C) Lodin noted that the Afghan president was optimistic on improving security conditions. The recent Loya Girga, and increase in terrorist attacks in Pakistan, were leading to growing collaboration between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Lodin pointed out that the long-awaited Taliban southern offensive never materialized, and that many senior Taliban leaders have been killed. Even though governance was "mismanaged" in the past, Lodin said, a new directorate, under Karzai's direct leadership, will positively impact security given that the government is now "well represented" in the south. Recognizing that Canadian colleagues "are still paying with their troops' lives," Lodin was hopeful that the situation in Kandahar was improving. 4.(C) Concerning "homegrown" terrorists, Lodin noted that a recent "incredible" UN Report on suicide bombings indicating that 80 percent of the bombers were foreigners, from Pakistan and Central Asian countries, and Chechnya. The 20 percent of Afghan bombers were often malleable, impressionable drug addicts who didn't know that they would be used in a suicide attack. He believed that there was a positive feeling in the population, that civilian casualties were taken seriously by ISAF. 5.(C) Lodin also acknowledged the negatives. He theorized that problems in the south and north should not be divided up. He also stressed that it was crucial for allies to realize that "Afghanistan is ONE Afghanistan." Ignoring that violence may spread from the south into the north was a mistake. Lodin cautioned that NATO withdrawal "noise" was having a negative impact on the Afghan populace. Ambassadors Speak Frankly -------------- 6.(C) Ambassador Whitney reinforced the US commitment to Afghanistan, while warning that narcotics issues could erode the support. Managing the NATO alliance was the biggest concern facing the mission, he said. 7.(C) Canadian Ambassador Jillian Stirk summarized Canadian Defense Minister Peter MacKay's recent trip to Norway. The Defense Minister, when meeting with his Norwegian colleague, Anne-Grete Stroem-Erichsen, emphasized that "we're all in this together". The Canadian Chief of Defense Staff General Rick Hillier also relayed to Norwegian colleagues that the Taliban monitors public opinion in all the alliance states, and warned Norway not to play into the hands of the Taliban, who, sensing wavering public support, plan atrocities to further destabilize public opinion. Stirk thought the Norwegians' preferred OMLT participation in the future, and possibly also in the south. 8.(C) Dutch Ambassador Ronald van Roeden described how the Netherlands would soon determine what will happen once its mandate ends in August 2008. He noted that public opinion has plummeted following Dutch casualties and that the Dutch were extremely disturbed by the narcotics situation. The Dutch emphasized a need for a third partner in Afghanistan, and continue to look to Norway. The Dutch and Norwegian Development ministers maintain a special relationship, Van Roeden said, and share the same concern for development, economy and HEALTH issues. 9.(C) Danish Ambassador Theis Truelsen bluntly stated that Danish support in Afghanistan was not in doubt, and a huge parliamentary majority supports Afghan involvement. Following the Iraq withdrawal, he said, Danish troops were reassigned to Afghanistan and the south. The Danish Ambassador also recalled a tense meeting between Danish Foreign Minister Per Stig Moeller and Norwegian Foreign Minister Stoere, when the Danish minister said talk of "Nordic cooperation" means that Norway should help "in tough spots," and not "just in cultural issues." According to the ambassador, Stoere "didn't like" the message, but noted that Norway would consider resending special forces to the south (Note: Norwegian special forces are currently in Kabul but will be imminently rotated out of the country). Moving Forward -------------- 10.(C) The ambassadors agreed that Norway should be encouraged to get the word out on reconstruction efforts. The Norwegian media is providing very negative, one-sided Afghanistan coverage, focusing only on security issues. The ambassadors believed that presenting a story collectively, to NGOs and the media, would be helpful to the Norwegian government. All continued to be dismayed that Afghanistan--which receives the second highest amount of very generous Norwegian development assistance--is never showcased by the GON. While the Afghan ambassador speculated that perhaps "Norwegian modesty" accounted for the silence, he agreed it would be helpful to open up the debate. He noted that Development Minster Solheim will soon visit Afghanistan, and, departing from previous Norwegian governmental traditions, will bring journalists--which all ambassadors agreed was a positive (if small) step. The ambassadors supported trying to persuade the Norwegian Foreign Minister to state for the record that Norway's NATO engagement in Afghanistan is important. Finally, Ambassador Whitney's call for "having Afghanistan speak for Afghanistan" was welcomed. 11.(C) Regarding renewing Norway's NATO mandate, and bringing in the Telemark battalion, the ambassadors thought the priority is to encourage NATO to submit a request for OMLT and special forces. Although many present (most particularly Ambassador Whitney) thought Norway should provide a Telemark battalion, the consensus was that Norway would be unlikely to support such a move, given that the vocal junior member of the ruling coalition government, Socialist Left (SV),had suffered dramatic losses (50%) in recent local elections. Several Ambassadors also noted that even if engaged, the Telemark battalion had such a short-term stay (6 months) that its utility would be limited to a symbolic role. 12.(C) The importance of Norway as a "swing country" in defense issues was also noted. Despite its small size, when Norway participates in security actions, other countries are encouraged to join in, and find it helpful. The Dutch Ambassador stated that what Norway does militarily is "crucial." 13.(C) The ambassadors also plan to rally the support and involvement of NGOs, commentators and media outlets. A possible conference hosted by the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Affairs (NUPI),inviting high-level Norwegian governmental officials, was supported. Rallying Norwegian support is crucial, particularly because the military will, in its upcoming internal review, determine whether to focus on home defense versus expeditionary forces. 14.(C) Comment. Norway's continued, and expanded, involvement in Afghanistan is viewed as increasingly important. The Dutch and Canadians, in particular, see Norway as a key ally, and potential source of assistance in the south. We will continue to advocate that Afghan Ambassador Lodin reach out to local media and bring a higher profile to Afghanistan. Alliance ambassadors at the breakfast remain uniformly committed to ensuring Norway remain in Afghanistan--and hopefully extend their presence through OMLTs and special forces. Opposition to remaining in Afghanistan has historically been most notable from the Socialist Left party. With its crushing defeat in recent local elections, its future course is uncertain, but the party clearly will hinder a greater military commitment to Afghanistan. Although all the ambassadors hoped that Norway would also commit the Telemark battalion, the Danish ambassador summed up the realistic appraisal, stating "it isn't Christmas yet." End Comment. WHITNEY