GETTING NORWAY TO DO MORE ON AFGHANISTAN:

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000988

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

USNATO/EXEC (VNULAND)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2017
TAGS: NATO PREL AF NO
SUBJECT: GETTING NORWAY TO DO MORE ON AFGHANISTAN:
AMBASSADORS BREAKFAST AND EMBASSY OUTREACH

Classified By: Ambassador Benson K. Whitney, Reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)

1.(C) Summary. On September 20 Ambassador Whitney and the
local Dutch, Danish, Afghan and Canadian ambassadors
participated in a key Afghanistan ally breakfast, hosted by
UK Ambassador David Powell. The breakfast covered ways to
ensure a renewal (and hopefully, an expansion) of Norway's
NATO commitment, particularly with future Operational Mentor
and Liaison Team (OMLT) and special forces contributions.
The ambassadors concluded that a Norwegian Telemark battalion
contribution was unlikely. Building on a theme long
advocated by the Embassy, the ambassadors agreed to encourage
ways to rally Norwegian public support of Afghanistan,
including a possible conference hosted by a Norwegian NGO.
The Embassy will continue to urge Afghanistan's Ambassador to
Norway Javid Lodin to actively engage Norwegian media, who
often do not cover the positives in Afghanistan. End Summary.

Afghan Ambassador's Debrief: "There's Only One Afghanistan"
-------------- --------------

2.(C) At a September 20 breakfast of ambassadors, Ambassador
Lodin (a former Chief of Staff of President Karzai) debriefed
on his recent "encouraging" trip to Afghanistan, focusing
largely on positives, while quick to point out U.S.
assistance. For example, he noted that due to US support
Afghanistan is becoming self-sufficient in cereal production.
Additionally, the country's still high child mortality rates
have plummeted by 30 percent. Lodin highlighted Ford Ranger
vehicles provided by Americans, which Lodin credited as
engendering confidence in the police, and enhancing their
capability--all the while creating positive public support of
the US. He lamented that such success stories do not make
the media.

3.(C) Lodin noted that the Afghan president was optimistic
on improving security conditions. The recent Loya Girga, and
increase in terrorist attacks in Pakistan, were leading to
growing collaboration between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Lodin pointed out that the long-awaited Taliban southern
offensive never materialized, and that many senior Taliban
leaders have been killed. Even though governance was
"mismanaged" in the past, Lodin said, a new directorate,
under Karzai's direct leadership, will positively impact
security given that the government is now "well represented"
in the south. Recognizing that Canadian colleagues "are
still paying with their troops' lives," Lodin was hopeful
that the situation in Kandahar was improving.

4.(C) Concerning "homegrown" terrorists, Lodin noted that a
recent "incredible" UN Report on suicide bombings indicating
that 80 percent of the bombers were foreigners, from Pakistan
and Central Asian countries, and Chechnya. The 20 percent of
Afghan bombers were often malleable, impressionable drug
addicts who didn't know that they would be used in a suicide
attack. He believed that there was a positive feeling in the
population, that civilian casualties were taken seriously by
ISAF.

5.(C) Lodin also acknowledged the negatives. He theorized
that problems in the south and north should not be divided
up. He also stressed that it was crucial for allies to
realize that "Afghanistan is one Afghanistan." Ignoring that
violence may spread from the south into the north was a
mistake. Lodin cautioned that NATO withdrawal "noise" was
having a negative impact on the Afghan populace.

Ambassadors Speak Frankly
--------------

6.(C) Ambassador Whitney reinforced the US commitment to
Afghanistan, while warning that narcotics issues could erode
the support. Managing the NATO alliance was the biggest
concern facing the mission, he said.

7.(C) Canadian Ambassador Jillian Stirk summarized Canadian
Defense Minister Peter MacKay's recent trip to Norway. The
Defense Minister, when meeting with his Norwegian colleague,
Anne-Grete Stroem-Erichsen, emphasized that "we're all in
this together". The Canadian Chief of Defense Staff General
Rick Hillier also relayed to Norwegian colleagues that the
Taliban monitors public opinion in all the alliance states,
and warned Norway not to play into the hands of the Taliban,
who, sensing wavering public support, plan atrocities to
further destabilize public opinion. Stirk thought the
Norwegians' preferred OMLT participation in the future, and

possibly also in the south.

8.(C) Dutch Ambassador Ronald van Roeden described how the
Netherlands would soon determine what will happen once its
mandate ends in August 2008. He noted that public opinion
has plummeted following Dutch casualties and that the Dutch
were extremely disturbed by the narcotics situation. The
Dutch emphasized a need for a third partner in Afghanistan,
and continue to look to Norway. The Dutch and Norwegian
Development ministers maintain a special relationship, Van
Roeden said, and share the same concern for development,
economy and health issues.

9.(C) Danish Ambassador Theis Truelsen bluntly stated that
Danish support in Afghanistan was not in doubt, and a huge
parliamentary majority supports Afghan involvement.
Following the Iraq withdrawal, he said, Danish troops were
reassigned to Afghanistan and the south. The Danish
Ambassador also recalled a tense meeting between Danish
Foreign Minister Per Stig Moeller and Norwegian Foreign
Minister Stoere, when the Danish minister said talk of
"Nordic cooperation" means that Norway should help "in tough
spots," and not "just in cultural issues." According to the
ambassador, Stoere "didn't like" the message, but noted that
Norway would consider resending special forces to the south
(Note: Norwegian special forces are currently in Kabul but
will be imminently rotated out of the country).

Moving Forward
--------------

10.(C) The ambassadors agreed that Norway should be
encouraged to get the word out on reconstruction efforts.
The Norwegian media is providing very negative, one-sided
Afghanistan coverage, focusing only on security issues. The
ambassadors believed that presenting a story collectively, to
NGOs and the media, would be helpful to the Norwegian
government. All continued to be dismayed that
Afghanistan--which receives the second highest amount of very
generous Norwegian development assistance--is never showcased
by the GON. While the Afghan ambassador speculated that
perhaps "Norwegian modesty" accounted for the silence, he
agreed it would be helpful to open up the debate. He noted
that Development Minster Solheim will soon visit Afghanistan,
and, departing from previous Norwegian governmental
traditions, will bring journalists--which all ambassadors
agreed was a positive (if small) step. The ambassadors
supported trying to persuade the Norwegian Foreign Minister
to state for the record that Norway's NATO engagement in
Afghanistan is important. Finally, Ambassador Whitney's call
for "having Afghanistan speak for Afghanistan" was welcomed.

11.(C) Regarding renewing Norway's NATO mandate, and
bringing in the Telemark battalion, the ambassadors thought
the priority is to encourage NATO to submit a request for
OMLT and special forces. Although many present (most
particularly Ambassador Whitney) thought Norway should
provide a Telemark battalion, the consensus was that Norway
would be unlikely to support such a move, given that the
vocal junior member of the ruling coalition government,
Socialist Left (SV),had suffered dramatic losses (50%) in
recent local elections. Several Ambassadors also noted that
even if engaged, the Telemark battalion had such a short-term
stay (6 months) that its utility would be limited to a
symbolic role.

12.(C) The importance of Norway as a "swing country" in
defense issues was also noted. Despite its small size, when
Norway participates in security actions, other countries are
encouraged to join in, and find it helpful. The Dutch
Ambassador stated that what Norway does militarily is
"crucial."

13.(C) The ambassadors also plan to rally the support and
involvement of NGOs, commentators and media outlets. A
possible conference hosted by the Norwegian Institute of
Foreign Affairs (NUPI),inviting high-level Norwegian
governmental officials, was supported. Rallying Norwegian
support is crucial, particularly because the military will,
in its upcoming internal review, determine whether to focus
on home defense versus expeditionary forces.

14.(C) Comment. Norway's continued, and expanded,
involvement in Afghanistan is viewed as increasingly
important. The Dutch and Canadians, in particular, see
Norway as a key ally, and potential source of assistance in
the south. We will continue to advocate that Afghan
Ambassador Lodin reach out to local media and bring a higher
profile to Afghanistan. Alliance ambassadors at the
breakfast remain uniformly committed to ensuring Norway
remain in Afghanistan--and hopefully extend their presence
through OMLTs and special forces. Opposition to remaining in
Afghanistan has historically been most notable from the
Socialist Left party. With its crushing defeat in recent
local elections, its future course is uncertain, but the
party clearly will hinder a greater military commitment to
Afghanistan. Although all the ambassadors hoped that Norway
would also commit the Telemark battalion, the Danish
ambassador summed up the realistic appraisal, stating "it
isn't Christmas yet." End Comment.


WHITNEY