SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY RICE'S APRIL 25-26 VISIT

UNCLAS OSLO 000404

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

FROM AMBASSADOR WHITNEY TO THE SECRETARY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OVIP NO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY RICE'S APRIL 25-26 VISIT
TO OSLO

1.(SBU) SUMMARY: Norway is increasingly active and
independent on issues from the Middle East to Russia,
alternatively complementing or at cross purposes with US
policy. Your visit is a chance to highlight the strength of
our bilateral relations and international cooperation, but
also to challenge Norway to be more supportive on priority
issues, including Iraq, Russia, Iran and the Middle East. END
SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION: INCREASING ACTIVISM IN FOREIGN POLICY
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2.(SBU) Our relationship with Norway continues to be strong
but is evolving as Norway pursues increasingly independent
policies. While recognizing the importance of U.S.-Norwegian
bilateral relations, Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg's
government has taken some steps directly opposing U.S.
preferences. Under the energetic and idealistic leadership
of Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere, Norway has been
extremely active in foreign policy, pursuing both traditional
Norwegian goals such as support for NATO and the UN and newer
goals such as fostering dialogue in the Middle East and
deepening Norway's commitment to Africa. At times Stoere's
bedrock belief in the importance of dialogue has led to
policies that have gone beyond the consensus of the
international community. Recent examples of this activism
include the decision to normalize relations with the
Palestinian Unity Government and continuing and deepening
dialogue with Iran and Cuba, and launching an initiative to
ban cluster munitions.

3.(SBU) Despite these actions, the government and Norwegians
in general find it important to believe that Stoere's
idealistic foreign policy initiatives are (at least
implicitly) accepted by the United States. Stoere believes
that Norway has special USG support to act independently and
that by doing so it plays a useful role. On issues where
that is not the case, it is important to immediately clarify
our position before Norway goes further. For example, Deputy
Foreign Minister Raymond Johansen, fresh from his visit to
Cuba during which he did not meet with the opposition, is
planning a May trip to Iran. There are also plans for the
Iranian Foreign Minister to visit Oslo. Without clear
statements from you on U.S. red lines, Stoere will feel free
to continue his policies.

THE GON--A FRAGILE COALITION
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4.(SBU) Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg likes to portray
himself as a youthful and energetic leader. This is his
second stint as Prime Minister. His first short term ended
in a disastrous defeat for the Labor party in 2001. In
coming to office again, he was committed not to run a
minority government and fought to build a coalition with the
far left Socialist Left (SV) and the Center parties. The
Socialist Left party (SV) generally opposes U.S. policies and
opposes Norway's membership in NATO, although as part of the
government they temporarily set this aside. Stoltenberg has
moderated his SV partners' behavior when necessary but must
spend a lot of energy keeping the left happy while attempting
to maintain Norway's historic support for NATO and the United
States.

5.(SBU) A prime example of this tension was the government's
October 2006 decision to refuse a NATO request for special
forces to be sent to Afghanistan. Coming after a painful
environmental debate that SV lost, the government decided it
would not risk the coalition over the NATO request at that
time. Nonetheless, the government is aware of the large
popular reserve of support for continuing Norway's
traditional emphasis on NATO. This was reflected by the
government's ultimate February 2007 decision to send special
forces to Kabul after a new NATO request.

KEEPING NORWAY A STRONG, PROACTIVE ALLY AND FRIEND
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6.(SBU) The Embassy's priority is to keep Norway a valuable
U.S. ally which works cooperatively with us to combat terror,
instability, and poverty throughout the world. Norway's
small size, non-threatening reputation, wealth, and
diplomatic activism give it a large international role,
increasing the importance of our relationship. We share
interests in conflict resolution in the Middle East, Balkans,
Sudan, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Colombia, and Haiti, but our
approaches sometimes differ. We also share an emphasis on UN
reform, fighting corruption while promoting development,
battling diseases, combating climate change, and developing
new energy resources in the Barents Sea and the Arctic
(dubbed the High North by Norway).


7.(SBU) Historic links from large-scale Norwegian emigration
to the United States and security ties during World War II
and the Cold War remain, but are diminishing. Norway looks
increasingly to Europe, seeking close links to the EU, but
not membership. Fewer Norwegians study in the United States
and suspicion of American foreign policy motives and values
is high. Few Norwegians appreciate how closely our nations
cooperate and how many values we share. Divergence over Iraq
and terrorism has magnified differences, with criticism of
the United States exaggerated by the media.

8.(SBU) Where the United States and Norway do work together,
in for example Sudan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, the
relationship is close, strong and productive. Despite its
small size, Norway has been a meaningful partner in
international operations. It presently has approximately 700
troops in Afghanistan and stands ready to send UN
peacekeepers to Sudan. Norway contributes significant
resources to humanitarian assistance and development aid.
For example, in 2007 Afghanistan will receive 70-86 million
dollars, an increase of 35% over 2006 levels. Norway's
current government stresses the need for increased
cooperation between military and civilian actors in
Afghanistan. MFA's political director, Kai Eide, welcomed
your recent emphasis on a "comprehensive" approach in
Afghanistan and suggested that it would increase Norwegian
and allied sense of ownership of ISAF and NATO if smaller
countries such as Norway could be publicly recognized for
their initiatives, including the comprehensive approach.

MIXED RESULTS WHEN NORWAY STRIKES OUT ON ITS OWN
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9.(SBU) Anxious to be a catalyst for Middle East peace,
Norway maintained regular contact with Hamas and was the
first government to open political relations and resume
assistance to the Palestinian National Unity Government.
Norway also independently reached out to Syria and Iran. The
relationship with Iran is based on a long-running political
dialogue and energy ties.

10.(SBU) Norway's relations with Russia, especially on
energy, are a major focus. A legal dispute over the Svalbard
archipelago involves Russia and a large area in the Barents
Sea is claimed by both Norway and Russia. Norway values its
close relations with Russia and has been unwilling to ever
criticize Russia publicly, although the Ministry of Defense
has stressed the need for increased GON capacity to protect
its interests in the North. Particularly on the missile
defense issue, reluctance by government officials to counter
Russian mistruths have led to extensive media acceptance of
the Russian false narrative.

DEFENSE ISSUES
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11.(SBU) Norway and the United States have one of the closest
military and intelligence relationships in the world.
Hundreds of Norwegians receive U.S. training each year,
Norway operates efficiently with U.S. forces within NATO, and
U.S. military sales help solidify interoperability. The
planned purchase of new fighter aircraft in 2008 is a
dominant theme in the defense debate in Norway. Norway is
planning to purchase approximately 48 aircraft, either the
U.S. Joint Strike Fighter (JSF),the Eurofighter or the
Swedish Gripen. Norway recently signed an MOU continuing its
participation in the JSF program. Norway also ordered 4 new
C-130 transport planes, beginning to restore the lift
capacity key to expeditionary forces.

12.(SBU) The Norwegian MOD continues to be an enthusiastic
supporter of NATO transformation. The MOD has aggressively
pursued a restructuring of Norway's defense establishment to
support this. Flat funding has limited the effectiveness of
the MOD's ability to transform the military and it is
uncertain to what degree the government supports this
transition.

13.(SBU) In February Norway hosted a conference to discuss a
legally binding international instrument to ban cluster
munitions with unacceptable humanitarian consequences.
Norway insists that a total ban is not on the table.
Instead, the stated goal is to create restrictions on
unreliable cluster munitions, prevent proliferation and help
clean up unexploded cluster munitions. We remain concerned
that this process will undermine the Convention on
Conventional Weapons and may impact allied operations.

COUNTER-TERRORISM

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14.(SBU) Terrorists have used Norway to raise funds and
perhaps plan operations. In 2006, a plot to attack the U.S.
and Israeli Embassies was uncovered; the prosecution now
underway is the first test of new counter-terrorism
legislation. New surveillance authority was successfully
used in this case. Norway has also improved airport
security. Nonetheless, most do not see terrorism as a threat
to Norway. Counter-terrorism resources are limited and
attention to the issue is spotty.

AN IMPORTANT ENERGY PARTNER FOR THE U.S. AND THE WORLD
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15.(SBU) Norway is the third largest export of oil and
natural gas in the world. Thus, it is a significant energy
supplier and its stability, reliability, and low level of
corruption help Norway contribute to energy security and set
an example to other producers. Norway is looking north for
its energy future towards the Barents Sea and the Arctic.
The High North region is of crucial importance to the
Norwegians. The region is also increasingly important to the
United States. In 2007 Norway will begin shipping Liquefied
Natural Gas (LNG) from a Barents Sea field to Cove Point, MD.


16.(SBU) Most of the state's revenues from petroleum
activities are allocated to a separate fund, the Government
Pension Fund Global. The value of the fund now exceeds USD
300 billion. The GON has ordered divestiture of the Fund's
holdings of a number of American companies, including Boeing,
Lockheed Martin, Wal-Mart and others, for alleged violation
of ethical guidelines. The Embassy has weighed in on the
issue, highlighting the arbitrary nature of the decisions and
urging a more transparent process.

YOUR VISIT IS A KEY OPPORTUNITY
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17. (SBU) As old ties binding Norway to the U.S. fray, we
must reinvigorate the relationship. Commonalities with our
own transformational agenda are the place to start. Our
robust Public Diplomacy strategy emphasizes shared values and
counters negative narratives. An additional element in our
strategy is the Mission's educational exchange initiative,
which your letter helped launch. We expect that by creating
new partnerships, lowering financial and other barriers, and
increasing information for students, we will see a dramatic
increase in the number of students going to the U.S. to help
maintain people-to-people ties.


18. (SBU) Aside from pressing your points in bilateral
meetings, your engagement with the local media will be a
critical opportunity to voice America's positions to the
general Norwegian public. In addition to the press
opportunity with the Foreign Minister, I hope you will
consider doing an interview on the state television to
highlight the long-standing relationship with Norway and the
many areas where we work together. Such an interview would
significantly advance our cause in Norway.
JOHNSON