NORWAY'S LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS: A WARNING OF

UNCLAS OSLO 001101

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR NO
SUBJECT: NORWAY'S LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS: A WARNING OF
OBSTACLES TO A CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT IN 2009?

REF: OSLO 939


1. (SBU) Summary: As the fallout from the September local
elections finally subsides, the larger issues which will
shape the 2009 general election are becoming clear. The
center/left governing coalition (Labor, Center and Socialist
Left Parties) were given a rebuke in the local elections,
particularly the Socialist Left party (see reftel for
details). They need to produce results on their core issues
of education, environment and integration of immigrants and
reduce the internal strife with the Socialist Left if they
expect to do well in the 2009 elections and continue in
power. The center/right opposition (Progress, Conservative,
Liberal, and Christian Democrat Parties) need to figure out
how to deal with the Progress Party,s success and its
sometimes crass statements as they strive to form the
outlines of what could be an alternative coalition in time
for the 2009 general elections. The outcome will likely have
a significant impact on bilateral relations. End Summary.

The Government Responds to Poor Election Results
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2. (SBU) On October 18 Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg
announced a major shuffle in his cabinet, appointing four new
ministers and giving Erik Solheim a &Super Minister8
portfolio including the Development and Environment
Ministries. One of the new Ministers appointed was Manuela
Ramin-Osmundsen, Norway,s first minister of immigrant
background (Caribbean/French). These Ministerial shifts were
designed to answer the implicit criticism of the local
elections in which voters punished the governing coalition,
pointing to failure to deliver on promises on environmental
protection, cuts in the higher education and research budget,
and failure to provide enough day care facilities. The
Ministers replaced were considered ineffective and
controversial. Solheim is regarded as an effective leader
and carries weight with the environmental lobby. It is also
important to note that the number of Ministerial positions
held by the Labor Party and the Socialist Left (SV) party
remained the same, despite SV,s heavy election losses.
Working with SV has been difficult for Labor but they appear
committed to continue the current coalition, at least until
the 2009 elections.


3. (SBU) The appointment of Ramin-Osmundsen was the most
controversial and drew the most media attention. Not only
had she became a Norwegian citizen only two weeks before
being appointed as Minister, her previous work in government
ended with scandal. She was the head of the Norwegian
Directorate of Immigration (UDI) but was forced to resign
over a scandal involving asylum seekers. The Progress Party
objected to her appointment because of her past problems and
stated that they questioned her loyalty to Norway. In the
Norwegian context, some regarded this as racist. Other
opposition parties attempted to distance themselves from the
Progress Party.

How to Deal with the Progress Party
--------------


4. (SBU) The Ramin-Osmundsen appointment and the fight over
the Oslo Mayor job highlight the central issue facing the
opposition parties for the 2009 elections, namely how to deal
with the Progress Party. This problem was demonstrated in
grand fashion by the fight over the Mayor of Oslo job. After
over a month of long and controversial negotiations, the
Conservative candidate was selected to become the Mayor of
Oslo. Conservative/center parties won the majority of votes
in Oslo but had exceptional difficulties in agreeing on a
coalition in the City Council which then appoints the Mayor.
The main two conservative parties, the Progress and
Conservative Parties were willing to work together but needed
either the Liberal Party or the Christian Democrats to obtain
the majority. Lars Sponheim, the leader of the Liberals,
dramatically stated that his party would never work with the
Progress Party in government, throwing a monkey wrench in the
negotiations over the Mayor and igniting a national debate
over the ability of the conservative parties to form an
alternative to the current coalition. Although Sponheim,s
statement helped boost support for the Liberals, it
highlighted the core weakness of the opposition parties,
namely the need to work with the sometimes distasteful (at
least in some Norwegian eyes) Progress Party. The Liberals
and the Christian Democrats, which could act as kingmakers
after the next election, are beginning to show a willingness
to work with Progress on a local level but national leaders
are still reluctant to do so because of Progress,
"politically incorrect" reputation.


5. (SBU) Progress consistently has the second largest poll
figures and espouses an ideology which is stricter towards
immigration, favors lower taxes, would increase security and
police forces, less worried about environmental issues, and
in general more conservative than other Norwegian Parties.
Progress, message is resonating with a substantial number of
Norwegians. Given Progress, size, any alternative government
coalition must include them, thus presenting other
conservative parties with the difficult choice of working
with an unpalatable partner or facing a likely continuation
of the current government.

Why this is important for the bilateral relationship
--------------


6. (SBU) Most of the decisive issues for the 2009
Parliamentary elections will be domestic. However the
results could have a significant effect on Norway,s
relations with the United States. A conservative/center
coalition would be much more favorable to working
constructively with the U.S. on a variety of issues. The
current government, while not openly opposing U.S. policies,
has pursued an independent foreign policy which at times has
run counter to U.S. policies. The Progress Party is one of
the most pro-American parties in Norway with many of its
members drawing inspiration from Ronald Reagan. The other
major party of the center-right is the Conservatives who are
also generally pro-U.S. but in a more nuanced fashion. The
2009 election will be importent for the continuing
development of our bilateral relationship.
WHITNEY