CANDIDATES COURTING KEY OVERSEAS VOTE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000952 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL CY SUBJECT: CANDIDATES COURTING KEY OVERSEAS VOTE ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Over a half-million Cypriots reside abroad, with 300,000 in the London area alone. While eligible voters represent just a fraction of the total overseas population, Cyprus's presidential candidates will devote great time and effort to winning the diaspora vote, which many experts consider crucial in 2008. The contenders will fly in voters from across the globe for the February contest, at great cost to parties and taxpayers. Opposition forces decry such waste. Existing legislation allows absentee voting, they claim, but the government abhors the concept, since most overseas Cypriots would back President Papadopoulos's challengers. End Summary. -------------- Wastefulness or manipulation? -------------- ¶2. (U) As in all previous elections, political parties will spend a large chunk of their budgets to offer free or subsidized air tickets to Cypriots temporarily residing abroad, allowing them to return for next February's presidential elections. Not all overseas Cypriots can vote; the law demands that citizens be permanent residents on the island for at least six months before they can register, effectively precluding those with overseas domicile or full-time employment. Voting is mandatory for all eligible Cypriots, and those temporarily abroad must come home to fulfill this obligation. ¶3. (U) The parties supporting incumbent President Tassos Papadopoulos -- the Democratic Party (DIKO) and Socialist EDEK -- announced in November their intention to transport their voters free of charge. AKEL and DISY, Cyprus's largest parties and the primary backers of challengers Dimitris Christofias and Ioannis Kasoulides, respectively, will cover approximately two-thirds the cost of airfare. According to DISY and AKEL officials, the three candidates together will fly in approximately 13,000 voters, with the larger parties bringing 5,000 each. A DISY insider told us recently that some DISY supporters will take advantage of DIKO's free tickets, since there is no way to verify the political affiliation of every voter. ¶4. (U) The cost of this operation is estimated at 2-3 million Cyprus Pounds ($5-7.5 million) and represents one-third of each candidate's campaign budget. In addition, the parties, mainly their youth wings, will devote considerable volunteer labor to the venture. The largest operations will be organized in Greece, the UK and the USA, the countries chosen by most Cypriots for their studies. Other voters will hail from African and Arab Gulf countries, other nations in Europe, and Australia. -------------- Critics Aplenty, But Changes A-few -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Although the costly airlift earns considerable criticism at home, political expediencies preserve the status quo. Opposition DISY asserts that current Cypriot legislation permits absentee balloting, a far cheaper option. DISY's call earlier this year for the installation of voting stations in Cypriot diplomatic missions won no support from the governing coalition, however, which then included AKEL. While AKEL and EDEK support absentee voting in theory, they cite practical difficulties in implementing it. Cyprus does not have embassies in many nations, they note, meaning that absentee balloting in overseas missions would be discriminatory. Officials at the Ministry of Interior (MoI),responsible for organizing Cypriot elections, make the same arguments. ¶6. (SBU) DISY officials assert that politics, not unfairness, underpins the decision not to implement absentee voting. Traditionally, DISY and AKEL have enjoyed strong support amongst younger voters. In university elections, for example, the parties typically garner 85 percent of votes cast, a tribute to their well-run political machines. With students constituting the majority of overseas Cypriots eligible voters, the big parties likely would obtain a slightly lower -- but still considerable -- majority in the February presidential election. By barring absentee voting in embassies and using his deep pockets to fly expats home, DISY Spokesman Haris Georghiades told us, President Papadopoulos is seeking balance in the overseas vote. ¶7. (U) In April 2007, DISY proposed a legislative amendment to boost the numbers of young voters. The party sought automatic registration at age 18 of all Cypriot citizens permanently residing on the island. It met rejection at the hands of the government coalition, however. Under the current regime, which requires potential new voters to file an application with the MoI, 27,000 eligible youth remained unregistered as of late November. -------------- Comment: -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Recent polls show the presidential race a statistical dead heat, with the distance separating first- and third-place candidates within the margin for error. In such a scenario, the overseas vote -- around three percent of the electorate, and out of the reach of pollsters -- assumes added significance. With DISY and AKEL the likely beneficiaries of expanded suffrage in the form of absentee ballots, incumbent Papadopoulos has reason to favor the current arrangement. There is growing discontent among Cypriots over this costly and outdated tradition, however. Further, increasing numbers of temporary expats are unwilling to leave their jobs or studies for over a week, regardless of who buys their tickets. While we predict no changes to the system in the run-up to February, we would expect the parties and the MoI to revisit absentee balloting sometime thereafter. SCHLICHER