PRESIDENT PAPADOPOULOS OFFICIALLY ENTERS PRESIDENTIAL RACE

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT PAPADOPOULOS OFFICIALLY ENTERS PRESIDENTIAL RACE



1. (SBU) Summary: On July 24, the last of the three main contenders
for the presidency, incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos, officially
confirmed that he will seek reelection. The main themes of his
televised announcement were the rejection of the Annan Plan and
support of the subsequent July 8 process as a vehicle for finding a
new basis for a solution. Having lost leftist AKEL's support,
however, Papadopoulos is no longer considered the clear favorite.
Opinion polls record a gradual decline of his popularity and now
show all three major candidates with roughly equal chances to make
it to the second round in February.


2. (SBU) Meanwhile, nationalist EVROKO joined DIKO and EDEK in
supporting Papadopoulos's bid and in becoming an equal partner in
any future Papadopoulos administration. EVROKO's shrill
nationalistic rhetoric and its poor relations with DISY, however,
will scare away many AKEL and DISY voters who might otherwise have
been tempted to support Papadopoulos. For its part, AKEL is not
only increasing the volume of its criticism of Papadopoulos, it is
also making a greater effort to move the party away from its
communist roots toward the center.

Papadopoulos Appeals to "No" Voters to reelect him
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3. (SBU) In a July 24 televised address, President Tassos
Papadopoulos officially launched his reelection campaign. Flanked
by a Cypriot and an EU flag and with an open window in the
background, a calm and confident Papadopoulos revealed that he will
seek to capitalize on what he considers the key accomplishments of
his administration: the rejection of the Annan Plan, the July 8
process, a recently-announced increase in social benefits, and
Cyprus's entry into the Euro-zone. His speech was designed to
appeal to the 76 percent that voted "no" to the UN-sponsored Annan
Plan in April 2004. He argued that the rejection of the Annan plan
has opened up prospects for a better solution, provided he remained
in charge to complete the work that he had started. He placed blame
for the Annan Plan on former (DISY) President Clerides and claimed
that, despite his sincere efforts, he could not improve it to the
point that it could form the blueprint for a viable and functional
solution. Aware of the electorate's growing uneasiness over the
lack of any kind of forward movement on the Cyprus issue,
Papadopoulos argued that the July 8 process could produce a new
basis for a solution, provided that Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet
Ali Talat responded to his call to enter into negotiations on the
core aspects of the Cyprus problem.


4. (SBU) Papadopoulos made a special appeal in his speech to his
"friends in AKEL" to renew their faith in him "in order to win more
battles together" and prevent conservative DISY from climbing back
into power. His awkward pitch to AKEL voters infuriated AKEL's
leadership, which launched a series of attacks on Papadopoulos,
warning him to keep his hands off the party faithful since AKEL now
has it own candidate. However, recent opinion polls recording a
gradual decline in Papadopoulos's popularity clearly indicate that
he needs to attract votes from AKEL's and DISY's traditional
electorate if he is to make it into the second round. The first
opinion poll carried out only two days after AKEL made its final
decision on July 8 to back the candidacy of its own General
Secretary Demetris Christofias, showed a seven percent decline in

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Papadopoulos's lead, down to 30.8 percent from 37.7 percent in April

2007. At the same time, Christofias improved his share to 26.3
percent from 23.9 percent three months ago. DISY-backed independent
candidate Ioannis Kasoulides remained second in the race with 29.6
percent, down from 32.4 percent in April. Contrary to earlier
predictions that Papadopoulos would win in a landslide in a second
round run-off with either one of his main rivals, this poll showed
Christofias leading with 41.1 percent against Papadopoulos's 39.5
percent.

Papadopoulos Loses the Aura of Inevitability
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5. (SBU) Pundits believe that Papadopoulos has valid reasons to
worry about his prospects for reelection as the two major parties
AKEL and DISY appear to have solidified party support for their own
candidates. An independent election specialist, with a proven
record prognosticating in Cypriot elections, told EmbOff that,
traditionally, the parties that support Papadopoulos, centrist DIKO
and socialist EDEK, are incapable of delivering one hundred percent
of the votes they poll in parliamentary elections to the
presidential candidate they endorse, primarily because of their weak
party organization but also due to internal rivalries and
disagreements. DIKO and EDEK polled 17.9 percent and 8.8 percent in
the May 2006 parliamentary elections, while AKEL and DISY polled
31.13 percent and 30.34 percent, respectively. AKEL is regarded as
having the best party organization and being able to deliver its
electorate to the polls. To date, all Cypriot presidents have been
elected with either the support of DISY or AKEL.


6. (SBU) A July 25 decision by nationalist European Party (EVROKO
-- which was formed by defectors from DISY in 2005),to endorse

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Papadopoulos's candidacy, may prove a double-edged sword. While the
addition of EVROKO's 5.75 percent share in the May 2006
parliamentary elections may seemingly appear sufficient to safely
land Papadopoulos in the second round of the elections, EVROKO's
nationalist, anti-federation views and its history of bad blood with
DISY may scare away any AKEL and DISY voters who are attracted to
Papadopoulos's candidacy but are appalled by the idea of joining
forces with EVROKO.


7. (SBU) A Papadopoulos campaign insider disagrees. He believes
that Papadopoulos's image as the leader of the "no" camp at the 2004
referendum is stronger than AKEL's legendary discipline and party
allegiance. He is convinced that Papadopoulos will easily draw
votes from the huge 76 percent "no" vote pool, especially now that
he is free of the constraints placed on his Cyprus-problem policy by
AKEL. He argued that AKEL's irresolute stance on the Annan Plan has
driven many AKEL voters to Papadopoulos's camp and was certain that
Christofias will "fall on his face" in the February elections.


8. (SBU) Meanwhile, in Kasoulides's camp hopes and fears are riding
high. While Christofias's candidacy has suddenly made Kasoulides a
serious contender, it simultaneously exposed his most damaging
weaknesses: his lack of proven leadership qualities. A Kasoulides
campaign insider and senior DISY official confessed to EmbOff that
"most bets are on Christofias" to be the next president. Should
Kasoulides fail to significantly improve his image and thus create a
momentum for his candidacy, his chances will collapse, he said. He
disclosed that private media outlets and many influential
businesspeople are waiting for the September poll results in order
to decide on which side to jump. He feared that Kasoulides's
failure to enter the second round would cause a serious and possibly
irreparable rift in DISY. He revealed that a DISY-commissioned poll
showed that half of the DISY supporters would never vote for
Christofias and the other half are dead set against Papadopoulos.


9. (SBU) Another Kasoulides campaign insider, however, was
optimistic about Kasoulides's chances to win the elections. He was
certain that the election will result in a second round runoff
between Kasoulides and Christofias. Since most DIKO and EVROKO
voters will never agree to back the Communist Christofias,
Kasoulides will be the victor.

AKEL Shifting to the Center
--------------

10. (SBU) AKEL spokesman Andros Kyprianou told EmbOff that the
party's decision to go it alone rather than throwing its support
behind other parties' candidates as it has in the past was part of a
longer-term strategy to establish AKEL as a party with a direct
claim to power. More revealing of AKEL's future plans was AKEL's
decision to hire the services of mainland Greek communications and
policy advisor, Yiannis Loullis, who also serves as an advisor to
Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis. Loullis is best known for his
motto that "the future is in the center." According to an AKEL
insider, in his speech to the closed session of the July 8 AKEL
Congress, Christofias talked about transforming AKEL into an urban
political party, while in public appearances AKEL officials have
dropped references to communism in favor of socialism. DISY Deputy
Leader Averof Neophytou worried to us that by moving toward the
center, AKEL will be able to attract middle and upper middle-class
voters and donors, making it an even more formidable rival. A
possible AKEL success in the upcoming elections, he said, would
speed up this process.

Comment
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11. (SBU) While Papadopoulos's reelection seemed a near certainty a
few months ago, it is now anybody's game. Christofias' candidacy
has deprived him of the support of AKEL that was critical to his
election in 2003 and has made this a tight race. With no clear
favorite, many key opinion makers who appeared poised to jump on the
Papadopoulos band-wagon are now waiting to see the poll results this
fall before tying their fates to any of the three main contenders.
A three-candidate race will also make it much more difficult for
Papadopoulos to turn the campaign into a "second referendum" on the
Annan plan. To get to the second round, Papadopoulos now needs the
support of all of DIKO's, EDEK's and EVROKO's parliamentary voters
or significant defections from the AKEL and DISY electorates. This
will not be easy. The parties in his coalition lack the political
organization and internal discipline of the two larger parties. In
the months leading up to the February 17 presidential election,
Papadopoulos will seek to satisfy hardliners and moderates alike in
order to convince them to renew their trust in him. Papadopoulos is
also likely to try to improve his relations with the international
community, and particularly the U.S., in an attempt to fend off AKEL
criticisms that his reputation abroad has tipped the international
balance in favor of the Turkish Cypriot side.

SCHLICHER