ELECTORAL HEAT ON, PAPADOPOULOS MOVES ON ONE-YEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000583 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017 TAGS: CY PGOV PREL SUBJECT: ELECTORAL HEAT ON, PAPADOPOULOS MOVES ON ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF JULY 8 AGREEMENT REF: A. NICOSIA 579 ¶B. 2006 NICOSIA 1088 Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher for reason 1.5 (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: ROC President Tassos Papadopoulos and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat are likely to meet in an attempt to "break through the stalemate" of their agreement on July 8 of last year. In two July 5 letters sent to the UN and forwarded to Talat, Papadopoulos called for two separate, face-to-face meetings of the two leaders: one at the UN Committee on Missing Persons (CMP) to evaluate its work over the past year, and another to revisit the stalled bicommunal agreement negotiated last summer by former UN U/SYG for Political Affairs Ibrahim Gambari. Papadopoulos's second letter included a proposal for fleshing out and actually beginning the work of the bicommunal "working groups" and "technical committees" of the July 8 agreement. Talat accepted July 10 Papadopoulos's invitation to meet on the latter but declined to meet at the CMP, believing such would inappropriately politicize the missing persons issue. The prospect of the two leaders meeting may finally be a step forward on last summer's agreement, although the odds of the two sides achieving genuine progress in any meetings remain decidedly low. The best hope for progress on the UN track lies in the new political topography of the February 2008 Presidential race in the ROC; with a genuine three-party race underway, there is a possibility that the three candidates may compete with each other to see who can do more to move toward a genuine settlement negotiation. End Summary. -------------- ONE YEAR LATER, NO RESULTS -------------- ¶2. (C) On July 8, 2006, UN U/SYG Gambari brokered an agreement between Papadopoulos and Talat that committed each community to working toward a possible Cyprus solution by establishing "working groups" to prepare the ground for settlement negotiations and "technical committees" for issues of daily life (reftel B). The two leaders also agreed to meet occasionally to review the work of the bicommunal groups and committees. Fast forward one year, and the situation has hardly changed. Papadopoulos and Talat have not met since the agreement, with Papadopoulos refusing several meetings proposed by Talat because, since the technical committees had not met, there was "nothing to discuss." Despite dozens of meetings of the tripartite coordination committee charged with finding a way to implement the July 8 agreement, the technical committees and working groups have failed to meet or agree on terms of reference. Even the "coordination committee," responsible for assigning the bicommunal bodies their tasks, has been mired in disputes over committee nomenclature and distinctions between daily life and settlement matters, particularly with respect to property. As recently as June 21, UN SRSG Michael Moller cut short a meeting of the coordination committee due to fears that the unconstructive process would further increase mistrust. Moller's widely-reported rebuke of both sides at a UNFICYP ceremony on July 5 (just before he received Papadopoulos's letters) tells of UN exasperation with both sides' lack of progress. ¶3. (C) Over the course of the past year, electoral considerations have increasingly intruded on the prospects for progress. UNFICYP DCM Wlodek Cibor speculated to PolChief June 21 that neither community likely would concede ground until after the election cycles of Turkey, Greece and Cyprus have all concluded early next year. Papadopoulos's candidacy for re-election is considered imminent, and the lack of progress on the Cyprus issue already has played prominently in other candidates' press and public statements in the build-up to Cyprus,s February 2008 presidential elections, including those of former coalition partner and communist party AKEL's Demetris Christofias (reftel A). -------------- PAPADOPOULOS'S PROPOSAL -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Coming just three days before the one-year anniversary of the July 8 agreement, Papadopoulos's proposal signals his view that a "new situation is necessary," given the proven limitations of the coordination committee. The first letter proposed a meeting with Talat at the UN Anthropological Laboratory in the UN Buffer Zone to survey NICOSIA 00000583 002 OF 003 the work of the CMP. The letter suggested that the meeting at the CMP should be strictly humanitarian in nature, in line with the previous bicommunal agreement to remove the issue from the political arena, in order for the visit to "send an even more positive message to the members of both communities" on the prospects for reconciliation. ¶5. (SBU) The second letter called for an additional meeting between Papadopoulos and Talat, under the auspices of the UN SRSG, "with a desire to break through the stalemate" and "to see real progress." The tendered plan calls for setting up working groups concerning settlement issues on (1) governance; (2) EU matters; (3) security; (4) territory; (5) property; (6) economic matters; and (7) citizenship, aliens, immigration and asylum. Technical committees on day-to-day issues would be established for (1) crime and criminal matters; (2) economic matters; (3) cultural heritage; (4) crisis management; (5) humanitarian matters; (6) health matters; and (7) environment. The proposal contains provisions to avoid problems that may arise from the naming of the groups by alternately identifying them by number. It further grants each community preference in establishing one working group and one technical committee, with all four bodies to begin work concurrently within the next 10 days. -------------- -- PAPADOP,S REAL AUDIENCE: GREEK CYPRIOT REACTION -------------- -- ¶6. (U) All major Greek Cypriot political parties applauded Papadopoulos's proposal. Former coalition partner and current rival AKEL hoped it would "mark the beginning of a process in which both communities will exhibit good will." Opposition DISY similarly welcomed the move, but noted the one-year lag. Its deputy leader, Averof Neophytou, also cautioned that the timing of the proposal could arouse suspicions in the international community and by the Turkish Cypriot side that any meeting is intent on serving Papadopoulos's pre-election expediencies. The spokesman for DISY-backed presidential candidate Ioannis Kasoulides recounted that, just two weeks ago, the government had scorned Kasoulides's call for a meeting between Papadopoulos and Talat as "naive, dangerous, and superficial." -------------- TALAT SEES A "RAY OF HOPE," WITH RESERVATIONS -------------- ¶7. (C) At a July 10 press conference, Talat accepted Papadopoulos's proposal to revitalize the July 8 agreement as "positive" and "a ray of hope to save the process," noting Turkish Cypriot calls for such meetings over the past 10 months and accusing the Greek Cypriots of using delaying tactics. However, Talat doubted one meeting would suffice to cover all of the problems and suggested regular meetings to overcome additional issues. The Turkish Cypriot leader rejected outright the proposed meeting at the CMP, arguing that, despite Papadopoulos's belief it could be strictly humanitarian, the two leaders' status as political figures would inherently politicize the issue and jeopardize the CMP's recent successes. (Comment: The Turkish military in the north is planning on holding a ceremony attendant to the turnover of the remains of T/C missing on July 12; Talat is slated to attend, but not to speak. We,ll see how the ceremony goes, but the planned event does not bode well for the effort to avoid politicization of the work of the CMP. End comment). ¶8. (C) In private, Talat's spokesman Hasan Ercakica told Poloff July 9 that the Turkish Cypriot leadership hoped the proposed meeting would cause pro-solution Greek Cypriots to "expect more meetings, including top-level, face-to-face discussions supported by bicommunal projects, technical commissions and confidence-building measures." However, the Turkish Cypriots were skeptical of Papadopoulos's sincerity in calling for the meetings, and many believed he was "merely posturing" to show pro-solution Greek Cypriots that he is not completely anti-solution. Even so, Ercakica saw "no harm" from a leaders, meeting as it could generate at least some energy for a solution. ¶9. (C) Though no Turkish Cypriot political parties have issued official statements, Kibris and Yeni Duzen dailies, which support a bicommunal solution and Talat's CTP, expressed pleasure with the news of the proposal. On the right, opposition UBP and DP have yet to acknowledge the NICOSIA 00000583 003 OF 003 meeting offer. Commentators predict that UBP almost certainly will see no reason for a meeting; DP likely will not object. Predictably, ultra-nationalist newspaper Volkan viewed the process as "a waste of time," laden with Greek Cypriot "trickery." -------------- -------------- COMMENT: WHATEVER TASSOS,S MOTIVATIONS, A NEW DYNAMIC IS POSSIBLE -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) Papadopoulos's gesture is likely a desire to kill a whole flock of birds with just one stone. Aside from the potential to inch forward on reconciliation, moving anywhere on the stagnant July 8 agreement may distract some from AKEL's and DISY,s criticism of Papadopoulos's settlement approach. This could be especially beneficial to Papadopoulos given AKEL's recent nomination of its own candidate for the February 2008 presidential elections, a decision that led to the breakup of the ruling coalition (reftel A). Though Papadopoulos July 10 denied his proposal was for pre-election purposes, the suddenness of his reversal on the question of a leaders, meeting suggests at least some consideration of the electoral atmosphere. His call for two leaders' meetings also might ward off press and UN criticism, both of which intensified approaching the one-year anniversary of Gambari's visit. Turkish Cypriot fears that Papadopoulos's proposal is disingenuous are not enough to dissuade Talat from at least one meeting. However, a meeting is unlikely to occur before July 16 for logistical reasons. Talat will more likely try to push it back until after the July 22 elections in Turkey, even though a first meeting would probably not immediately address any substantial issues leading Talat to have to consult with Ankara. ¶11. (C) Comment continued: All politics is local, and the new Greek Cypriot internal political dynamic of a three-way fight has spurred Papadopoulos to make these new moves. A two-way race between Papadopoulos and Kasoulides would no doubt have been a stale rehash of who voted "no" and who voted "yes" in 2004. Now, however, with both Kasoulides and former coalition partner Christofias berating his lack of movement on CyProb issues, Papadopoulos needs to produce at least a strong semblance of progress -- maybe even some real progress -- on the UN track. The UN and international community need to encourage a positive debate during the election season, encouraging each candidate to outline his ideas on how to do more and how to make more progress. To nurture this dynamic, we will also need to enlist the help of Greece, to get Talat off his distinctly negative vector of the last year, and make sure that Ankara allows Talat some space to engage in a UN process that is not ritual obeisance to the Annan Plan. End comment. SCHLICHER