FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER KASOULIDES ENTERS THE PRESIDENTIAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000525 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL CY SUBJECT: FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER KASOULIDES ENTERS THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE Ref: Nicosia 136 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Ioannis Kasoulides, the Cypriot foreign minister during the second Glafcos Clerides administration (1998-2003) and a leading member of the Democratic Rally party (DISY),announced June 13 that he would run as an independent in the February 2008 presidential elections. Before a packed house at his kickoff event, Kasoulides revealed that his top campaign priorities were to convince voters of his freedom from political party ties -- in order to attract voters from across the political spectrum -- and to clear himself of the stigma of having supported the 2004 Annan Plan reunification effort. While DISY's endorsement is certain, its leaders chose not to attend the opening rally, lest their presence betray Kasoulides's carefully-cultivated image as an independent. Critics of this strategy warn that the candidate risks losing the solid support of DISY's rank-and-file with such a strategy, however. Though well-attended and superbly organized, Kasoulides's "coming out" lacked buzz; he will need to work harder to convince voters that a vote for him is not a wasted ballot. A brief biography of Ioannis Kasoulides begins in Para 9. END SUMMARY. Turning attention to the future -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Kasoulides's announcement surprised no one; since 2006, his name had circulated as the likely opposition standard-bearer, and the candidate himself informed the Ambassador in February of his intentions (Reftel). At that meeting, however, Kasoulides revealed he would announce in March. Likely in hopes of increasing his then-low polling, in recent months the former FM has conducted extensive citizen outreach, all the while dodging inquiries regarding the commencement of his formal campaign. On June 1, Nicosia dailies carried news that Kasoulides would announce June ¶13. ¶3. (U) In the same National Fairgrounds exhibition hall that in July 2006 temporarily had housed thousands of American evacuees from Lebanon -- this time packed mostly with well-groomed youth and devoid of recognizable political figures -- Kasoulides called on members of all political parties to join him in a civic coalition "to transform Cyprus into a 21st century European country." He appeared to have designed his speech to shift attention from the past and spur hope for a more successful and optimistic future in which the people, not the political parties, would play protagonist roles. Aware his biggest challenge was to draw supporters from all political parties, not just DISY, Kasoulides avoided criticizing coalition parties DIKO, AKEL, and EDEK. Instead, he blamed RoC President Tassos Papadopoulos personally for the ills plaguing the country, both domestic and relating to the Cyprus problem. ¶4. (U) Kasoulides accused Papadopoulos of intentionally "freezing the political picture" on April 24, 2004, the date of the Annan Plan referendum, in order to keep the people divided into the "yes" and "no" camps and exploit them accordingly. He charged that under Papadopoulos's presidency, Cyprus's image abroad had suffered to the point that it was seen almost as a third-world country. On domestic issues, Kasoulides criticized the administration's handling of education and job creation, of great importance to Cypriot youth. His remark that "yesterday's solutions cannot answer tomorrow's questions" drew wild applause from the crowd. A Promise to Make the Annan Plan History -------------- ¶5. (U) Aware his pro-Annan Plan stance in 2004 would become his opponents' main weapon during the campaign, Kasoulides addressed the issue by attempting to appeal simultaneously to both "yes" and "no" camps. Without appearing defensive, he proudly declared that his position on the Annan Plan was public record. On the other hand, he promised he would not revive the UN-brokered initiative if elected president, since Greek Cypriots had rejected it by a large margin. ¶6. (U) Kasoulides stressed the urgency of fresh thinking on the Cyprus issue and outlined the four pillars of his proposed policy: unity of the people, restoration of Cyprus' credibility abroad via a campaign to convince outsiders that Greek Cypriots wanted an early solution; "correct" utilization of Turkey's relations with the European Union and its desires for accession; and the immediate pursuit of a solution that would address and respond to the people's concerns and expectations. He fretted that the pro-partition slogan "Greek Cypriots on this side, Turkish Cypriots on the other," was gaining ground, especially among young people. Playing to fears of a demographic shift on the island in favor of ethnic Turks, owing to perceived, uncontrolled settlement from Turkey, the reality might soon become "Greek Cypriots on this side and Turkish Cypriots all over," Kasoulides predicted, a situation analogous to the Christian minority's in Lebanon. Early Impressions: Many Worried -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The absence of DISY leaders on the stage surprised no one, since the party had agreed to limit its visibility in hopes of helping to solidify Kasoulides's claim of non-partisanship. Most political contacts expect the party will endorse Kasoulides's candidacy later this summer. Some DISY officials do not agree with the candidate's decision to keep DISY at arm's length, however. They warn that, with Kasoulides's political history, he cannot fool voters with claims of true independence. Further, they worry that the candidate, by turning his back on his roots and depriving DISY officials of front-line campaign roles, risks losing the support of the party's base. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: Kasoulides's June 13 debut represented a solid first step. By Cypriot standards, it was superbly organized and fresh, and the candidate appeared confident and well-prepared to fend off criticisms his opponents undoubtedly will lob as the campaign progresses. At the same time, however, Kasoulides's speech was low on inspiration, his hand-picked audience attentive but reserved. Unless he can convince voters that he has a realistic prospect of winning the election, Kasoulides will not be able to secure even the solid support of his own party, which polled just over 30 percent in the May 2006 parliamentary elections. In such a scenario, the likelihood of him reaching the second round of the projected Kasoulides - Papadopoulos - AKEL leader Dimitris Christofias presidential race seems skimpy. Biographical Information -------------- ¶9. (U) Ioannis Kasoulides was born in Nicosia in 1948. He studied medicine in France and specialized in geriatrics in London hospitals. He became active in politics at a very young age. While studying in France, Kasoulides founded and was the president of the Federation of Cypriot Students in France. He was elected president of NEDISY (Youth Organization of the Democratic Rally (DISY)) from 1990 to 1993. He was elected to the House of Representatives in ¶1991. In 1992, Kasoulides participated in a four-week International Visitor program on the subject of the "U.S. Presidential Campaign." A year later, he resigned his parliamentary seat to become spokesman for the Clerides presidential administration. He was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs in late 1997, just before the beginning of Clerides's second term. ¶10. (U) Kasoulides contested the leadership of DISY in May 2003 following the defeat of Clerides in the February 2003 presidential elections. He lost to Nicos Anastassiades, securing only 45 percent of the vote. In June 2004 he was elected to the European Parliament, garnering the highest number of votes of any Cypriot candidate. Kasoulides is married to Emy, an anesthesiologist, and has one daughter, Joanna. He comes from an old and highly regarded Nicosia family. Kasoulides is socially and politically well-connected and is generally respected by his colleagues and the public at large. He speaks fluent English and French.