FRINGE CANDIDATE SUPPORTS ANNAN PLAN REVIVAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000489 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL CY SUBJECT: FRINGE CANDIDATE SUPPORTS ANNAN PLAN REVIVAL ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Costas Themistocleous, a former Minister of Agriculture in the Glafkos Clerides administration (1998-2003),will run in next year's presidential elections, "not to win, but to tell Cypriots my version of the 'truth' about the Cyprus problem." Themistocleous warns that Cyprus is at the brink of partition, which can be averted only if the two sides engage in intensive talks to revive and revise the 2004 Annan Plan reunification initiative. As one of few openly pro-solution politicians, he is cognizant a majority of Greek Cypriots will discount and/or disparage his pro-Annan stance, but seems not to care a whit. With little to lose -- Cyprus's political class already has marginalized, if not ostracized Themistocleous -- he will delight in this gadfly role. Lacking campaign cash and access to the media, however, and offering an unpopular message, his chances of shaping the debate look lower than his likely voter tally. A short biography of Costas Themistocleous commences in Paragraph 10. END SUMMARY. Current Policies Untenable, Brought Disaster -------------- ¶2. (SBU) While the main would-be presidential candidates are competing on who will bury the Annan Plan deeper, Costas Themistocleous, Minister of Agriculture in the Clerides administration and former leader of the United Democrats (EDI),has made the rejected UN plan the banner of his presidential campaign. He announced his candidacy April 24, the third anniversary of the referendum on the Annan Plan, together with a desperate call for action to prevent the island's permanent partition. Believing that Greek Cypriots had rejected the Annan Plan mainly because they were misled by their leaders' argument -- that after Cyprus acceded to the EU, the Greek Cypriot side would have more leverage to push for a "European" CyProb solution -- Themistocleous has issued a manifesto designed to prove this assertion false and warn that continuation of the current hard-line policies will lead only to permanent partition. ¶3. (SBU) Themistocleous May 31 not only welcomed the chance to speak to Embassy officials, but insisted on meeting at the Chancery - "I'm not afraid of being seen here, like most politicians," he boasted. At the get-together, he outlined his Annan Plan-centric platform, contrasting how Cyprus might look now, had the "yes" vote prevailed, with the current situation on the island. By April 2007, 
Themistocleous asserted, the last installment of Greek Cypriot territory would have been returned, the influx of Turkish settlers would have ended, all Christian places of worship would have been opened, and a maximum of 6000 Turkish soldiers would have remained on the island. Additionally, half of the territory of the British Sovereign Base Areas would have reverted to the "United Cyprus Republic." ¶4. (SBU) Cypriots' rejection of the Annan Plan had prevented these positive developments from occurring, Themistocleous lamented. As a direct result, majorities in both communities now considered the de facto division of the island acceptable, and the prospect of permanent partition was gaining support both locally and abroad. EU institutions and other international players already recognized Turkish Cypriot authorities indirectly, and frequently were inviting them to various international fora. The Turkish Cypriot property commission stood a good chance of being accepted as an effective domestic remedy, potentially trumping a favored G/C tack of attacking Turkey's "occupation" of north Cyprus through the property cases at the ECHR. Finally, G/C properties north of the Buffer Zone were being developed so quickly, that in three to four years, "there would be no property issue left to discuss Finding the Good in the Annan Plan -------------- ¶5. (SBU) To reverse course and prevent permanent partition of Cyprus, Themistocleous proposed resumption of negotiations on the Annan Plan. Talks would be closed-ended, taking place between March and August 2008. His plan culminated in new referenda, to be presented to both communities the following fall. The Greek Cypriot side's goal should be to improve certain aspects of the Annan Plan, not to re-write it completely, which the Turkish Cypriots would dismiss out of hand anyway. Papadopoulos had failed to seek such revisions in the last round of the 2004 talks, Themistocleous fretted; the G/C community must not miss another opportunity. ¶6. (SBU) He was well-aware his message resonated with only a small minority of Greek Cypriots, and sadly remarked that, under the current administration, his compatriots had come to prefer partition to reunification. Themistocleous expected to garner 1-2 percent of the popular vote in February. In this extremely adverse climate, however, an actual result falling on the high side of the range would mark success. Some Races Are Won by Just 1-2 Percent -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Cypriot election system requires an absolute majority for the election of the president, and many races require a second round seven days later. Before the runoff, failed candidates, small parties and even influential personalities suddenly acquire great importance and engage in hard bargaining with the two top candidates in order to trade their support for cabinet seats or other high-ranking positions. ¶8. (SBU) Front-runners seem unlikely to be knocking on Themistocleous's door come February, however, owing mainly to his unpopular pro-solution bent. Further, in our meeting he proved unable or unwilling to explain how he might "shop" his vote haul to runoff candidates in hopes of influencing their platforms. His supporters, Themistocleous claimed, were independent thinkers, pro-solution and smart enough to make their own decisions. Comment: -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Not endorsing his preferred runoff candidate appears a wise move for Themistocleous. His support likely would function more as a kiss of death than helping hand anyway, since Annan supporters in Greek Cyprus currently trail undertakers and tax collectors in popularity. Additionally, Themistocleous's tendency to speak his mind, coupled with the current establishment's relentless defamation campaign, have made him a political outcast. Nonetheless, while other moderates and pro-solution politicians are laying low or adjusting positions to respond to the hard-line public sentiment, Themistocleous has shown admirable courage in publicly defending views now synonymous with treason. All for naught, unfortunately. End Comment. Biographical Information -------------- ¶10. (U) Costas Themistocleous was born in 1949. He studied Economics and Political Science at the University of Athens, and did graduate studies in Economic Development in London. Themistocleous began his professional career as an employee of the Communist party AKEL, first in London and later in Cyprus as a journalist for the AKEL newspaper HARAVGHI. In 1982, he joined the AKEL-affiliated labor organization PEO and was placed in charge of international relations and relations with Turkish Cypriot labor organizations. ¶11. (U) In 1990, Themistocleous broke with AKEL and helped form ADESOK, the Socialist Democratic Renewal Party. Soon after, he won the vice-presidency of ADESOK, holding the position until December 1996 when the party merged with the Free Democrats Movement of former President George Vassiliou. He was elected General Secretary of the new party formed out of the merger, the United Democrats. Themistocleous was appointed Minister of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Environment after President Clerides's re-election in February 1998, serving until the end of the administration in 2003. ¶12. (U) In 2006, he resigned from his post as General Secretary of the United Democrats when his statement that Greek Cypriots should stop using derogatory terms such as "pseudo" when referring to Turkish Cypriot officials caused an uproar. Earlier, Themistocleous was embroiled in controversy when the pro-government, sensationalist tabloid "Pontiki" published a copy of a check for 30,000 CYP issued in Themistocleous's name and signed by two Turkish Cypriot businessmen. His explanations that the money was to be used as the capital for the first joint G/C-T/C company legally registered in the RoC fell in deaf ears. Together, the two "scandals" tarnished his and the United Democrats' reputations. ¶13. (SBU) Themistocleous has written numerous articles on the Cyprus problem and is an ardent supporter of rapprochement between the Turkish- and Greek-Cypriot communities. He has participated in many bi-communal seminars and conflict resolution workshops in Cyprus and abroad. In 1995, he participated in the Fulbright Commission-funded Public Policy Leader's Workshop, known as "Coolfont", in Virginia, U.S.A. Costas Themistocleous is married to Avgi, a high school art teacher, and has three children. He speaks English well.