TURKISH CYPRIOT CENSUS DEBATE FOCUSES ON NATIVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NICOSIA 000434

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU CY
SUBJECT: TURKISH CYPRIOT CENSUS DEBATE FOCUSES ON NATIVES
VERSUS "SETTLERS"

REF: A. 06 NICOSIA 643

B. 05 NICOSIA 1955

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Schlicher, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: "Native" Turkish Cypriots continue to
outnumber their mainland Turkey-born brethren, according to a
controversial census that T/C authorities conducted in 2006
but whose results they are releasing in periodic
installments. The census findings also refute an
oft-repeated Greek Cypriot claim that Turkish "settlers"
constitute a majority of the "occupied area's" population;
predictably, G/Cs are questioning their accuracy. Census
takers also investigated the parentage of "TRNC citizens," a
sensitive issue between Turkish and Greek Cypriots as well as
among T/Cs themselves. It indicated that Turkish Cypriots
with at least one parent born in Cyprus comprised nearly 52
percent of the total permanent resident population. Opinion
leaders nevertheless argue that the "TRNC" increasingly looks
like a Persian Gulf state, where foreign workers constitute
the majority of the labor force, if not the population.
Further, many rank-and-file Turkish Cypriots lament they are
"losing their country" under a wave of immigration of
mainland Turks, whom they blame for rising violent crime. No
change in "TRNC" migration policy is expected soon, however.
South of the Buffer Zone, Greek Cypriot authorities have
refused to comment on the "TRNC" census, and most G/C media
dismissed it out of hand. END SUMMARY.

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RELEASING DATA "IN THE MODE OF A BRAZILIAN SOAP OPERA"
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2. (SBU) Turkish Cypriot authorities conducted a general
census in April 2006, enforcing a strict daylight curfew to
enable the "State Planning Organization (DPO)" to conduct the
count (Ref A). Approximately 6,000 staff -- mainly public
servants and college students -- fanned out across the "TRNC"
to register all those physically present in northern Cyprus.
Even tourists were restricted to their hotels so they could
be included. In addition to seeking a raw count, DPO census
takers carried a list of 61 questions (38 of them
personal/demographic, 14 housing-related, and nine related to
their "citizenship"/residency status). Although "Prime
Minister" Ferdi Soyer was able to announce the preliminary
overall population numbers a few days after the census, an
analysis of the data has taken longer than the six months
initially expected. In February 2007 and again in April,
however, "TRNC" authorities released highly-publicized
tranches of information.


3. (C) In announcing the February release, "PM" Soyer
explained census modalities and the "government's" deliberate
approach in making public the findings. "We wanted zero
mistakes in the final results and worked very carefully," he
contended, attempting to explain the delays. Subsequently,
DPO "Undersecretary" Isilay Yilmaz revealed that, for the
first time, the "TRNC" had conducted a census without relying
heavily on Turkey. "The 'TRNC' needed to enter the
information technology age," Yilmaz argued. She therefore
had "forced" the Turkish Cypriot bureaucracy to take on the
task, hoping the information gathered would spawn greater
automation within the "TRNC government," and that other
"agencies" and "ministries" might utilize the data. Further,
its results would aid authorities in parceling out resources
to local "governments" and assist in reform efforts.

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WHAT THE DATA SHOW
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4. (C) The census counted both the "de facto" population --
everyone present within the "TRNC" on census day -- and "de
jure" population -- those resident for one year or more. The
de facto count tallied 265,100 individuals, 143,843 males and
121,257 females, while the de jure population was 256,644,
138,568 males and 118,076 females. In his public comments,
Soyer revealed a 32.2 percent increase in the de facto
population and a 36 percent increase in the de jure since the
last census taken (1996). Using projections from the 1996
census, experts earlier had anticipated the de facto tally
would reach only 220,000, he added. Yilmaz was not surprised
by the higher-than-expected result. Anecdotal evidence --
"just looking around," she laughed -- suggested the
population of the north had risen quickly in recent years.
She admitted some surprise at one finding, however, which
showed that over 4,000 T/C emigrants had returned, most since

2002. They likely were drawn by the prospect of a Cyprus

NICOSIA 00000434 002 OF 004


settlement or the island's then-imminent EU entry.


5. (SBU) The census did not include the approximately 30,000
Turkish troops housed in bases in northern Cyprus. Officers
living off-base and their dependents were added to the de
facto number, however, and to the de jure number if their
time "in-country" exceeded one year. The census showed over
half the population of the north held "TRNC citizenship."
About 47 percent carried passports of other countries, but no
information was given on what percentage held Republic of
Cyprus passports.


6. (U) The 2006 population breakdown:

Citizenship, de facto, (as percentage)
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"TRNC" citizens, 133,937, 50.5 pct.
"TRNC" & other (dual),42,795, 16.2 pct.
"TRNC"-Turkey, 33,870, 12.8 pct.
"TRNC"-UK, 4,185, 1.6 pct.
"TRNC"-other, 4,740, 1.8 pct.
Turkey, 77,731, 29.3 pct.
United Kingdom, 4,458, 1.7 pct.
Bulgaria, 831, 0.3 pct.
Iran, 775, 0.3 pct.
Moldova, 485, 0.2 pct.
Pakistan, 490, 0.2 pct.
Germany, 343, 0.1 pct.
Other, 3,255, 1.2 pct.

Citizenship, de jure, (as percentage)
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"TRNC" citizens, 135,106, 52.6 pct.
"TRNC" & other (dual),42,925, 16.7 pct.
"TRNC"-Turkey, 34,370, 13.4 pct.
"TRNC"-UK, 3,854, 1.5 pct.
"TRNC"-other, 4,740, 1.8 pct.
Turkey, 70,525, 27.5 pct.
United Kingdom, 2,729, 1.1 pct.
Bulgaria, 797, 0.3 pct.
Iran, 759, 0.3 pct.
Moldova, 354, 0.1 pct.
Pakistan, 475, 0.2 pct.
Germany, 181, 0.1 pct.
Other, 2,793, 1.1 pct.


7. (C) Mete Hatay, a researcher and project leader at the
Cyprus Center of the International Peace Research Institute,
Oslo (PRIO),told us May 8 that the census had probably
undercounted the population due to "poor preparation" and a
small boycott campaign launched by the anti-establishment
newspaper "Afrika." Hatay put the de jure population at
approximately 280,000, while "TRNC citizens" numbered closer
to 188,000 (rather than the census's 178,031).

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A RISING TIDE OF IMMIGRANTS?
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8. (C) "DPO U/S" Yilmaz expounded on perhaps the most
sensitive aspect of northern Cyprus demographics: the
"immigrant" (the preferred terminology in the north) or
"settler" (the south's choice) count. Pre-1979 arrivals were
mainly Turkish Cypriots relocating from government-controlled
areas in southern Cyprus; they numbered approximately 32,000.
Conversely, a majority of post-1979 arrivals --
approximately 95,000 out of 140,000 total -- hailed from
mainland Turkey. The "TRNC" census did not distinguish
between "legal" and "illegal" immigrants, Yilmaz added.
While in opposition, the "governing" Republican Turkish Party
(CTP) had warned of the potential "extinction" of Turkish
Cypriots in the face of massive Turkish immigration.
Immigration from Anatolia had reached new heights in recent
years, she asserted, and showed little sign of abating
anytime soon.

Year, Immigrants from Turkey
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to April 2006, 5,318
2005, 18,408
2004, 13,448
2003, 7,993
2002, 4,110
2001, 2,976
2000, 3,097
1999-1995, 10,487
1994-1990, 7,101
1989-1985, 4,242

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1984-1980, 1,833
1979 & before, 13,797

Turks' Reason for Immigration, Number
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Work, 29,318
Appointment/Duty, 4,772
Education, 18,104
Marriage, 6,608
Dependence on Household Members, 29,221
Return to "TRNC", 927
Other, 5,251
Unknown, 776



9. (SBU) Most of the non-"TRNC citizen" population were
guest workers and students. One prominent Turkish Cypriot
pollster claimed that the "TRNC" had begun to resemble "a
(Persian) Gulf state where foreign workers constitute most of
the labor force." PRIO's Hatay estimated Turkish student
population at 30,000.

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APPLYING SOME POSITIVE SPIN
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10. (SBU) Confronted daily by Greek Cypriot allegations that
Turkish Cypriots had become a minority in the north, "TRNC"
leaders delighted in the census's findings and lauded its
accuracy, though the lengthy delaying in parceling out the
results bred accusations that the authorities were
"massaging" the numbers to make political points. Further,
they defended "government naturalization" practices, at least
those of recent years. "Those immigrants who came to the
island 30 years ago and had children who have since then had
their own children can be thought of as nothing other than
citizens of the 'TRNC," Soyer argued. "President" Mehmet Ali
Talat claimed that, since the CTP came to power,
"citizenship" was granted according to internationally
recognized norms (nonetheless, contacts claim the CTP is
considering a change in the "naturalization" law to extend
the necessary length of residence before "citizenship" can be
granted.) Neither Talat nor Soyer chose to comment on
allegations that "governments" preceding the CTP's padded the
citizenship roles for electoral reasons.

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YOUR CITIZENS AREN'T NECESSARILY OURS
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11. (SBU) Irrespective of whether the census was accurate or
not, its findings will not resolve a fundamental point of
contention between Greek and Turkish Cypriots (and often
between T/Cs themselves): what makes a Turkish Cypriot.
Nevertheless, it does provide information on birthplace and
parentage, two determinative factors in "citizenship." The
census showed that 145,000 "TRNC citizens" were born in
Cyprus, 81 percent of the "citizen" population and 57 percent
of the total de jure. Regarding parentage -- a particularly
sensitive issue since many Greek Cypriots argue that neither
Turkish "colonizers" nor their progeny can be legalized --
120,000 "TRNC citizens" had both parents born in Cyprus (67
percent of the citizens population and 47 percent of the de
jure). Some 12,600 had one parent born in Cyprus.
Twenty-four percent of "TRNC" citizens, nearly 43,000 total,
had both parents born in Turkey,


12. (SBU) The Republic of Cyprus (ROC) government had no
official comment on the "TRNC's" census and the Greek Cypriot
media generally has treated it as non-serious.
"Phileleftheros," the largest-circulation G/C newspaper,
merely republished an article from the anti-establishment T/C
daily "Afrika" which alleged the "TRNC" had been "trying
everything over the past year to make the number of people
from Turkey appear smaller, by adding, subtracting,
multiplying, and dividing." "Afrika" cited a recent Turkish
Ministry of Labor and Social Security report that claimed
there were 35,000 more Turks in Cyprus than the "TRNC" census
revealed. "After all this, now do you understand why it took
them a year to announce the census results?" "Afrika"
quipped. Independent G/C political analyst Christoforos
Christoforou, who has extensively researched demographic and
electoral trends on both sides of the island, also voiced
skepticism with the Turkish Cypriot data. Of greatest
concern was the census's reliance on voluntary
self-identification, with no cross-checking of identity or
"citizenship" documentation.


NICOSIA 00000434 004 OF 004



13. The question of "settler status" is a contentious issue
that lies close to the heart of the Cyprus problem. Under
the relevant provisions of the Republic of Cyprus's 1967
citizenship law, amended in 2002, children with even a single
Cypriot parent are automatically entitled to RoC citizenship
(Ref B). The government reserved for itself a review
mechanism, however, requiring the Council of Ministers to
approve all applications for citizenship from children of
mixed Turkish Cypriot/mainland Turkish parentage. The
expressed goal of this procedure was to identify those
children with a "settler" parent, so that they might be
denied citizenship on the grounds that the children of
settlers were themselves "products of a crime." Christoforos
argued that, in the end, the "TRNC's" census was an exercise
in vain, since the government would never except its
"citizen" counts. Both sides would trumpet its results for
political purposes, however.

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COMMENT
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14. (C) The CTP-led "government" tackled the census project
with vigor and, in its opinion, showed the world it could
conduct the work of a recognized "government." Now comes the
hard part: turning findings into immigration policy. Voicing
a concern shared by many Turkish Cypriots, especially from
the pro-solution camp, United Cyprus Party leader Izzet Izcan
complained to us that he was "losing his country" to Turkish
immigrants. As long as a settlement was delayed, he
continued, more Turks would flood into northern Cyprus.
Yilmaz pointed to pull factors, explaining that the expanding
T/C economy required labor, especially in construction.
Self-identified "natives" saw a negative flip-side to the
migrant wave, however, and attributed rising crime to the
newcomers. Regardless, we expect no immigration overhaul, no
mass deportations, anytime soon. Such a move undoubtedly
would anger T/C nationalists and their Turkish Forces allies
on the island, a battle Talat and Soyer would rather not
fight at this moment.


16. (C) Given the Greek Cypriots' dismissive response, the
census also won't help to quell discord over the demographic
elements of a possible Cyprus solution. In the past, G/Cs
have demanded a census be included on the agenda of
UN-sponsored technical talks. Turkish Cypriot authorities
now will argue that this request is moot, creating one more
source of friction between the communities.

SCHLICHER