PM CENSURE: TIDE TURNS AGAINST HAMA?

C O N F I D E N T I A L NIAMEY 000756 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT. FOR AF/W; PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2012 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR NG SUBJECT: PM CENSURE: TIDE TURNS AGAINST HAMA? REF: NIAMEY 737 Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER ZACH HARKENRIDER FOR REASON 1.4 (B) ¶1. (C) As reported reftel, the Nigerien National Assembly has been considering a motion of censure against the government of Prime Minister Hama Amadou since Saturday. After two days of suspension, the Assembly re-convened this afternoon. Mission contacts indicate that the ground may have shifted considerably in the interval. Senior military officers close to the Prime Minister told post Defense Attach today that they were seriously concerned that the PM would fall. Some political contacts inform us that defections from the ruling MNSD party and its principal ally, the CDS, are planned, and that they will be sufficient to topple Amadou. The Constitutional Court shot down an MNSD attempt to question the constitutionality of the censure motion. Most cryptically, and perhaps most significantly, Post learned today that President Tandja -- thought to be in Abuja for the Nigerian Presidential inauguration and a Lake Chad Basin Commission meeting -- had not traveled at all. All of these auguries suggest that PM Amadou may be on much thinner ice than initially believed. ¶2. (C) While senior officers interviewed by DATT seemed genuinely concerned that the PM and his government would not survive the censure vote, none suggested that the military would intervene in the process in any way. President Tandja, a close friend of Nigerian President Obasanjo, had been scheduled to go to Abuja on Monday to chair a meeting of the Lake Chad Basin Commission. Most observers assumed that he would remain on in Abuja for the inauguration, if only to lend international legitimacy to his ally Obasanjo's favored candidate. Instead, the President sent a senior minister (and CDS loyalist) to both events in his place. ¶3. (U) In an opinion handed down today, the Constitutional Court validated the opposition's censure motion and the way in which it was brought. Apparently none of the objections to the motion raised by the MNSD Deputies (reftel) were upheld. Debate re-started at 1500 today. Given the amount of time devoted to debate Post does not anticipate a vote on the censure motion until late this evening at the earliest. ¶4. (C) Tandja's role is unclear. Different mission sources have claimed different things: some, that the President is moving to destroy his powerful PM and replace him with a more pliable candidate before seeking a (unconstitutional) third term for himself; others, that Tandja is quietly working to shore Hama up. DAO contacts suggested that, were the PM to fall, President Tandja might appoint the President of the Nigerien Chamber of Commerce, Ibrahim Iddi Ango, as the next Prime Minister. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: The mention of Ango's name reinforces the impression that Tandja is seeking to replace Hama with a broadly acceptable political neophyte. A Hausa from Zinder region, his candidacy may be construed as a sop to National Assembly and CDS President Mahamane Ousmane (another Zinder Hausa). At the same time, Ango has some family ties to a previous military ruler, Ibrahim Mainassara Bare, and his RDP party (a ruling coalition partner). However, Ango has no political base of his own, and in spite of his prominent economic position (head of one of Niger's largest insurance companies and its major bus company among other ventures) he is not directly associated with any political party. At the same time, rumors that Tandja had sent a delegation of "elders" to shore up CDS support for the PM are circulating. This suggests a very different role the President may, in fact, be playing. Post will report additional developments septel. END COMMENT. ALLEN