NIGER: WHAT DIDN'T HAPPEN ON DECEMBER 18

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NIAMEY 001478 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2017 TAGS: MOPS PGOV ASEC NG SUBJECT: NIGER: WHAT DIDN'T HAPPEN ON DECEMBER 18 REF: (A) NIAMEY 1453 (B) NIAMEY 1466 (C) NIAMEY 1444 (D) NIAMEY 1430 NIAMEY 00001478 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Donald W. Koran, DCM, reasons 1.4 (b/d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Niger's national day celebration went off without incident despite MNJ threats against it. The GON and MNJ continue to blame each other for landmines in the south. There was a reported attempt to lay a mine in the southern town of Tanout on December 18. The MNJ's recent actions have not matched its bellicose rhetoric. The GON has detained French journalists for traveling to the north. The continued conflict is contributing to ethnic tensions. End Summary. -------------- National Da passes without incident -------------- 2.(U) Niger's December 18 nationalday celebrations passed without incident in Tahoa, despite MNJ threats regarding the event. President Tandja used the event to call on MNJ fighters to lay down their arms. -------------- Mine in Tanout -------------- ¶3. (U) There are reports that two people tried to lay a landmine between the Prefet's house and a mosque in Tanout (100 kms north of Zinder) either the evening of December 18 or the morning of December 19. At least one of the men was reportedly apprehended. -------------- -------------- GON and MNJ blame each other for Tahoua and Maradi landmines -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The GON continues to blame the MNJ for the December 10 landmine incidents in Tahoua and Maradi (refs a-c). It has arrested the attendant at the parking lot where the Tahoua mine exploded. The MNJ claims the GON planted the landmines to foster anti-Tuareg sentiment in the south. ¶5. (C) While the Foreign Minister had said that the mine planted at the oil depot in Dosso on November 21 was not the work of the MNJ, GON security officials continue to attribute the incident to someone with MNJ ties. ¶6. (C) Responsibility for the Tahoua, Maradi and Dosso (and now Tanout) incidents remains unclear. The Tahoua mine, located where the December 18 festivities were scheduled to take place, would appear to be consistent with the MNJ's efforts to thwart those festivities. Moreover, Tahoua, while far south of the MNJ's normal base of operations, is in an area with a large Tuareg population. The site of the Maradi landmine had no military or economic significance, and appeared to be aimed at killing civilians. The Dosso incident was an economic target, but the amateurish nature of the attack is not consistent with the military capabilities of the MNJ. The three incidents may not be the work of a single person or group. Indeed, one or more of the incidents may have been the work of a third group, or perhaps of individuals with links to, or sympathy with, the MNJ, but not actually members of it. -------------- MNJ: More words, fewer deeds -------------- ¶7. (C) The bellicosity of the MNJ's statements has increased as the effectiveness of its military actions has declined. It planted landmines and conducted a few attacks on GON convoys in the north, but it has not launched any significant offensive operations since its unilateral Ramadan cease-fire ended on October 12. It besieged the northern town of Iferouane, but did not attack it, and was not able to prevent a GON convoy from resupplying the town (ref D). The MNJ's inability to back up its threats against the national day festivities with action raises real questions about its current strength. If the MNJ was responsible for any of the landmine incidents in the south, it may indeed be resorting to attacks on soft targets because it is incapable of NIAMEY 00001478 002.2 OF 002 attacking security forces or key infrastructure. ¶8. (C) Two factors may alter the military balance in the coming months, albeit in opposite directions. The first is the advent of the harmattan, which will limit the operations of ultralight surveillance aircraft, which the Nigerien armed forces (FAN) have used effectively. The other is the expected arrival of new military hardware, including attack helicopters. -------------- French journalists detained -------------- ¶9. (U) Two French journalists have reportedly been detained since December 17 for having traveled to the north to report on the rebellion. They had received GON accreditation to report on bird flu in the southern city of Maradi. -------------- Signs of ethnic/regional polarization -------------- ¶10. (C) The continued rebellion is contributing to ethnic tensions. MNJ claims that the FAN have murdered Tuareg civilians in the north, including the particularly troubling recent case of several prominent businessmen who may have been executed by FAN soldiers (refs a and b),are creating growing fears among the Tuareg population. Many southerners have resented the MNJ's taking up arms to obtain many of the same things that other groups are seeking through constitutional means (e.g. more schools clinics, roads and jobs),and the recent mine incidents in the south have contributed to anti-MNJ sentiments. The MNJ has always couched its rhetoric in regional rather than ethnic terms, but anti-MNJ sentiments are increasingly taking on anti-Tuareg undertones. The recent tensions notwithstanding, we still see few signs of the degree of ethnic animosity that exists in many other west African countries. ¶11. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. ALLEN