UTTAR PRADESH FACES A LONG BITTER ELECTION SEASON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000976 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR KISL IN SUBJECT: UTTAR PRADESH FACES A LONG BITTER ELECTION SEASON REF: A. NEW DELHI 871 ¶B. NEW DELHI 776 ¶C. NEW DELHI 396 ¶D. NEW DELHI 346 ¶E. NEW DELHI 659 ¶F. NEW DELHI 753 Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary. The protracted drama of Uttar Pradesh (UP) politics is likely to go on throughout a long grueling election campaign, and may not even be resolved after the election results are out. Despite growing opposition against SP misrule, the crafty UP Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav continues to hold on. In what was more show that substance, Mulayam won his 24th confidence motion on February 26. The opposition displayed its own penchant for drama by staging boycotts and demonstrations. Despite the high feelings, observers agree that the Center will be unable to impose President's Rule, and only an election will determine the fate of the SP government. Mulayam is so unpopular that most expect his arch-rival Mayawati and her BSP party to return to power. Early indications are that Congress suffered an electoral disaster in state elections in Uttarakhand and Punjab (septels) and as a result will have little chance of reviving in UP. Having won control of Uttarakhand, the BJP will be more determined than ever to return to power in the Hindi heartland state of UP where it got its start. However, for the immediate future, it can only do so as a member of a coalition government headed by the SP or BSP. While the BJP is willing to join forces with either, there is growing speculation in UP that the BJP and SP have established ties and may have agreed to cooperate. Speculation centers around the communal divide. Communal antipathy would likely cement Muslims into the SP fold and push ardent Hindu nationalists into the arms of the BJP. With the Manipur, Uttarakhand and Punjab elections out of the way, all pundits will focus on UP, which is the last and biggest electoral prize of this year's election cycle. End Summary. Build Up to Drama -------------- ¶2. (U) Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav called the Legislative Assembly into session February 26 to prove the majority of his Samajwadi Party (SP) government. This is the 24th time that Mulayam has conducted this exercise since assuming office in 2003. In the days leading up to the vote, the opposition (which now includes almost every party in the state),tried to gain maximum political mileage by announcing resignations and boycotts. Some 63 MLAs from the dalit-based BSP turned in resignations to former Chief Minister and party chief Mayawati. Likewise, the 15 member Congress legislative delegation turned in resignation letters to party chief Salman Khurshid, who forwarded them to Assembly Speaker Mata Prasad Pandey (of the ruling SP). In their letters, the Congress MLAs said that in light of the Supreme Court disqualification of 13 BSP MLAs (Ref A),the SP government had "no constitutional basis." The BSP, Congress, and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD - a regional party from West UP),announced on February 24 that they would boycott the February 26 session. The Jan Morcha Party of former Prime Minister VP Singh, which does not yet NEW DELHI 00000976 002 OF 004 have any MLAs, announced its support for the boycott. ¶3. (U) On February 24, BJP MLA and leader of the opposition Lalji Tandon presided over a meeting of the BJP legislative delegation in Lucknow. At the meeting, the MLAs decided not to join the boycott of the other opposition parties and determined that none would submit resignations. Instead, Tandon pledged that the BJP would remain in the house to "live up to its role of a constructive opposition." Tandon insisted that the BJP would pillory the SP government for its poor performance, raising the issues of the mass rape of 13 tribal women, the incarceration of BJP workers on false charges in east UP, the deteriorating law and order situation, and the failure of the SP government to mitigate the growing impact of inflation. One BJP MLA quit the party in disgust with this course of action and joined the Congress delegation. Political Theater -------------- ¶4. (U) On February 26, MLAs from the three opposition parties (BSP, Congress, RLD) were duly absent. Instead, they and their party leaders joined with members of the Jan Morcha Party to stage a loud demonstration against the continued "unconstitutional" rule of the SP. Inside the house, the BJP delegation loudly demanded that the Speaker disqualify 10 of its MLAs who had crossed the floor to vote with the SP during the January 25 vote of confidence (which the SP won 223:0, as every opposition MLA boycotted the vote). While acknowledging that he had received the petition for disqualification from the BJP, Speaker Pandey dismissed it as a political gesture, saying that the BJP had not "pursued the matter." He also claimed that he did not have the authority to act on the petition, which must be submitted to a tribunal for final action. Pandey also dismissed the purported resignations of the BSP MLAs as a "publicity stunt," noting that he had received no resignation letters, which had been sent only to BSP Chief Mayawati and Governor TV Rajeswar. ¶5. (U) When Speaker Pandey attempted to submit the confidence motion, many BJP MLAs left their seats to congregate in the "well" in front of the speaker's chair and shout anti-SP slogans. Pandey held the vote despite the protests. Some 215 SP and independent MLAs voted in favor and none against. As soon as Pandey announced the results, the BJP delegation staged a walkout. Views of a Pundit -------------- ¶6. (C) HT columnist and well-connected political pundit Pankaj Vohra told Poloff on February 26 that despite sailing through two successive votes of confidence, Mulayam is "done for" and will not return as Chief Minister after the election. Saying that Mulayam has "had his day in the sun," Vohra predicted that Mayawati's BSP would emerge from the upcoming elections as UP's largest political party, but would still not have an absolute majority. Vohra anticipated that Congress would join with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Jan Morcha to construct an "anti-Mulayam front." that should be able to eat into the SP vote banks in various regions of the state during the elections. (Congress has its base in NEW DELHI 00000976 003 OF 004 East UP, while the RLD retains the loyalty of the powerful Jat caste of West UP. VP Singh is a well-regarded Rajput leader and his Jan Morcha could deliver the crucial Rajput vote). Vohra felt that this front was likely to join with the BSP to form the government after the poll. Vohra speculated that, despite her anticipated victory, Mayawati may not be able to become Chief Minister, as she is facing serious corruption charges associated with her handling of the aborted "Taj corridor" scheme during her previous tenure. She could instead install RLD Chief and Jat leader Ajit Singh as Chief Minister. He would be expected to act as a placeholder until the BSP quashed the Taj corridor charges and completed a pogrom against the SP and its supporters. Events on the ground provided some substance to Vohra's speculation, as on February 26, an SP MP Munawar Hasan resigned and joined the RLD. Hasan claimed that he would convince the large Muslim population of West UP to switch from the SP to the RLD. Approximately 30 percent of the state's Muslim population resides in West UP and, without these crucial votes, the SP cannot hope to retain power. ¶7. (C) Vohra confirmed that he is hearing persistent rumors regarding behind the scenes collusion between the SP and BJP. The current Election Commissioner is a former Home Secretary under the previous NDA government and quite close to the BJP. According to Vohra, he called a seven stage election to allow the BJP to make use of its RSS cadres. The BJP purportedly plans to send teams of RSS organizers across the state to get out the Hindutva vote. No other party in UP has this capability. Vohra also determined that the inflation issue (especially the rising price of onions and other food staples) has the capability to "destroy Congress across the country," and give victories to the BJP. Because of the current dominance of regional parties in UP, the BJP can only form the government with a regional partner. There is growing speculation throughout political circles in the state that the BJP and SP could collude to exacerbate relations between Hindus and Muslims and even stage a few low-level communal riots during the run-up to the elections. In their estimation, this would serve to deliver the Muslim vote to the SP and the Hindutva vote to the BJP. The rumor is that if the two parties have sufficient numbers after the polls, they will join to form the government and keep the BSP out of power. Vohra was adamant that Congress has no chance of staging a comeback in the state because of poor organization and leadership and that even the intensive involvement of Rahul Gandhi and the Gandhi family will not help Congress get out of last place. Comment - The Role of UP -------------- ¶8. (C) Early returns coming out of Uttarakhand and Punjab indicate that this election has proven to be a disaster for Congress. This Congress setback could provide a boost to the BJP (and we will provide a more detailed analysis of the election outcome septel). Most analysts say that regardless of local issues, the economy and particularly inflation has become the millstone around the neck of Congress. Without a quick downturn in the inflation rate, Congress may suffer in future electoral contests as well, including in the 2009 Parliamentary election. Congress is now fighting for its survival in UP, where it has been reduced to a junior partner NEW DELHI 00000976 004 OF 004 to regional parties. In decline in the state since 1997, the latest losses will likely prevent Congress from reviving there during this election cycle. ¶9. (C) UP is the birthplace of the BJP, and the saffron party is intent on returning to power in the state at all costs, so as to be firmly established for the crucial 2009 race. The BJP wave in Uttarakhand and Punjab has fueled growing speculation that the party could pick up many seats in the UP polls. Despite this, no one expects the BJP to form the UP government, but rather to be a major partner in a coalition government headed by a regional party. ¶10. (C) Although the BJP is capable of cutting a deal with either the BSP or the SP, speculation is beginning to focus on a nascent BJP/SP alliance that could only emerge after the contest. UP analysts point to a virulent BSP/BJP rivalry to win the loyalty of the state's Brahmin community. The Brahmins have long been a crucial component in the BJP caste equation and the BSP is determined to win them over. Should the BSP form the next government, it would have the means to attract crucial Brahmin voters into its fold and severely undermine the BJP presence. A BJP/SP coalition government would be less problematic, as the constituencies of the two parties do not overlap and they do not compete for the loyalty of the same caste and religious groups. With so much at stake, UP faces a long and grueling campaign. ¶11. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) MULFORD