BJP WINS CLEAR MAJORITY IN UTTARAKHAND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000975 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL IN SUBJECT: BJP WINS CLEAR MAJORITY IN UTTARAKHAND REF: A. NEW DELHI 000910 ¶B. NEW DELHI 000659 ¶1. (U) Summary: The Uttarakhand unofficial election results were announced February 27, and the BJP won a clear mandate to form the next state government. According to media reports, Congress has conceded defeat, with state party spokesman Surendra Agarwal blaming divisions among secular voters for the loss. The BJP obtained an almost total reverse of its earlier defeat, winning 36 seats in the 70-seat assembly vice 20 for Congress. In the 2002 elections, Congress won 36 seats and the BJP 19, with the remainder going to various regional parties and independents. The BJP must now pick a chief minister for the state. The likely choice, according to press reports, is General B. C. Kundari, but former BJP Chief Minister B. S. Koshiari cannot yet be counted out. Retired General Top Contender for Chief Minister Slot -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) In an effort to avoid splits in the party in the runup to the election, the BJP did not name a chief ministerial candidate. With victory now in hand, the BJP Parliamentary Board will select the next Chief Minister on the evening of February 27. There are two contenders for the post, Bhuvan Chandra Khanduri and former BJP Chief Minister ¶B. S. Koshiyari. Khanduri, the president for the BJP's state election campaign committee, is thought to be the front-runner. A retired major general and native of Uttarakhand, the 72-year old Khanduri is currently the Lok Sabha member representing Garhwal district. Press reports speculate that he may have the blessing of former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L. K. Advani, as Khanduri served as Minister of Road Transport and Highways in the previous NDA government. Also popular with the electorate, Khanduri's main rival for the Chief Minister slot is former Uttarakhand Chief Minister Bhagat Singh Koshiyari. In a pre-election survey done by CNN-IBN in January 2007, Khanduri and Koshiyari were ranked as close second and third picks, respectively, for Chief Minister, behind number one pick incumbent Congress Chief Minister N. D. Tiwari. Tiwari's pre-election announcement that he did not want to fill the Chief Minister slot (reftel A) seems to have damaged the Congress and opened the way for the BJP victory. Rough Road Ahead for Congress -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Even though the results were only announced on February 27, the BJP electoral victories in Uttarakhand and Punjab have already emboldened the party to turn up the heat on Congress in Parliament. BJP MPs disrupted the February 27 Parliament session with demands that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh resign over alleged UPA mishandling of Octtavio Quattrocci's extradition from Argentina. Quattrocci is the main accused in the Bofors gun payoff scandal that led to a national electoral defeat for Congress in 1989, and the BJP is hoping that it can again make political capital from a scandal with connections to the Gandhi family. BJP President Rajnath Singh told reporters in Parliament that the Uttarakhand and Punjab results were a clear setback for NEW DELHI 00000975 002 OF 002 Congress party. The Uttarakhand and Punjab results (septel) do not bode well for Congress party momentum-or spirits--in the runup to the Uttar Pradesh elections. We will provide septel analysis regarding the national implications of the election results. ¶4. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) MULFORD