BJP WINS CLEAR MAJORITY IN UTTARAKHAND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000975

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: BJP WINS CLEAR MAJORITY IN UTTARAKHAND

REF: A. NEW DELHI 000910


B. NEW DELHI 000659


1. (U) Summary: The Uttarakhand unofficial election results
were announced February 27, and the BJP won a clear mandate
to form the next state government. According to media
reports, Congress has conceded defeat, with state party
spokesman Surendra Agarwal blaming divisions among secular
voters for the loss. The BJP obtained an almost total
reverse of its earlier defeat, winning 36 seats in the
70-seat assembly vice 20 for Congress. In the 2002
elections, Congress won 36 seats and the BJP 19, with the
remainder going to various regional parties and independents.
The BJP must now pick a chief minister for the state. The
likely choice, according to press reports, is General B. C.
Kundari, but former BJP Chief Minister B. S. Koshiari cannot
yet be counted out.

Retired General Top Contender for Chief Minister Slot
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2. (SBU) In an effort to avoid splits in the party in the
runup to the election, the BJP did not name a chief
ministerial candidate. With victory now in hand, the BJP
Parliamentary Board will select the next Chief Minister on
the evening of February 27. There are two contenders for the
post, Bhuvan Chandra Khanduri and former BJP Chief Minister

B. S. Koshiyari. Khanduri, the president for the BJP's state
election campaign committee, is thought to be the
front-runner. A retired major general and native of
Uttarakhand, the 72-year old Khanduri is currently the Lok
Sabha member representing Garhwal district. Press reports
speculate that he may have the blessing of former PM Atal
Bihari Vajpayee and L. K. Advani, as Khanduri served as
Minister of Road Transport and Highways in the previous NDA
government. Also popular with the electorate, Khanduri's
main rival for the Chief Minister slot is former Uttarakhand
Chief Minister Bhagat Singh Koshiyari. In a pre-election
survey done by CNN-IBN in January 2007, Khanduri and
Koshiyari were ranked as close second and third picks,
respectively, for Chief Minister, behind number one pick
incumbent Congress Chief Minister N. D. Tiwari. Tiwari's
pre-election announcement that he did not want to fill the
Chief Minister slot (reftel A) seems to have damaged the
Congress and opened the way for the BJP victory.

Rough Road Ahead for Congress
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3. (SBU) Even though the results were only announced on
February 27, the BJP electoral victories in Uttarakhand and
Punjab have already emboldened the party to turn up the heat
on Congress in Parliament. BJP MPs disrupted the February 27
Parliament session with demands that Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh resign over alleged UPA mishandling of Octtavio
Quattrocci's extradition from Argentina. Quattrocci is the
main accused in the Bofors gun payoff scandal that led to a
national electoral defeat for Congress in 1989, and the BJP
is hoping that it can again make political capital from a
scandal with connections to the Gandhi family. BJP President
Rajnath Singh told reporters in Parliament that the
Uttarakhand and Punjab results were a clear setback for

NEW DELHI 00000975 002 OF 002


Congress party. The Uttarakhand and Punjab results (septel)
do not bode well for Congress party momentum-or spirits--in
the runup to the Uttar Pradesh elections. We will provide
septel analysis regarding the national implications of the
election results.


4. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD