Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NEWDELHI910
2007-02-23 11:57:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
UTTARAKHAND: SLIM MARGIN MAY DETERMINE ELECTION
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000910
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: UTTARAKHAND: SLIM MARGIN MAY DETERMINE ELECTION
OUTCOME
REF: NEW DELHI 000659
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000910
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: UTTARAKHAND: SLIM MARGIN MAY DETERMINE ELECTION
OUTCOME
REF: NEW DELHI 000659
1. (SBU) Summary: On February 21st, an estimated 55-60% of
Uttarakhand's 6 million member electorate voted in the second
Legislative Assembly election since the state was created out
of Uttar Pradesh in 2000 (reftel). The main battle was
between the BJP and Congress for sixty-nine assembly seats
and one Lok Sabha seat. Polls for one assembly were delayed
due to the death of its Congress party candidate. Polling
was peaceful, despite some hiccups with a few electronic
voting machines and some names missing from voter lists.
State Congress leader and incumbent Chief Minister N D Tiwari
did not run for a seat, leaving the party without a clear
chief ministerial candidate, potentially hurting Congress's
chances to hold on to the state. The election commission
will report the results on February 27th, along with those of
Punjab and Manipur. End Summary.
Exit Polls Unreliable
--------------
2. (SBU) Although most exit polls gave a clear, but slim,
victory to the BJP, an NDTV poll predicted a tie. In such a
tight race, exit polls (always of questionable value in
India) cannot provide a reliable indicator of the outcome.
According to the HT/CNN-IBN poll, the BJP can expect to
garner about 34% of the votes for an estimated 33-39 seats,
with Congress receiving an estimated 31%, gaining between
21-27 seats. Such an outcome would be a reversal of the 2002
elections, in which Congress won 36 seats and the BJP 19,
with the remainder going to various regional parties and
independents. Despite the wide variance in seats, the
electoral divide between the BJP and Congress in that race
was just over one percent. The NDTV poll suggests, however,
that the ruling Congress and opposition BJP are both set to
get 25-35 seats in the 70-member assembly. In such a "hung
assembly," the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Uttarakhand
Kranti Dal (UKD),would likely break the deadlock by joining
with Congress to form the government.
Congress Hurt by Lack of Leadership
-------------- ---
3. (SBU) Comment: In Indian state politics, it is usually
an uphill battle for the incumbent to hold on to power. That
is even more so in the case of Uttarakhand, where regional
parties are ineffectual and politics are dominated by
Congress and the BJP. This "anti-incumbency factor" is
further compounded by the retirement of Chief Minister and
Congress party "grand old man" N. D. Tiwari. Initially, his
failure to run for a legislative assembly seat in this
election opened him up to accusations of "cowardice" from the
BJP. In the final days of the campaign, Tiwari declared
publicly that he will not serve as Chief Minister again.
Although Tiwari gives his age (82) and his indifferent health
as reasons for retiring, the Hindustan Times cited Congress
party sources as saying that Tiwari hopes to succeed A. P. J.
Abdul Kalam as President of India when Kalam's term ends
later this year. Based on previous PolOff meetings with him,
Tiwari seems to have tired of running a small state and wants
to return to the national political stage where he is more at
NEW DELHI 00000910 002 OF 002
home. Tiwari's departure has provided the BJP with a
political Godsend, as its own popular--and much younger at
65--former Chief Minister, Bhagat Singh Koshiyari, is fully
set to take up the Chief Minister's mantle.
4. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: UTTARAKHAND: SLIM MARGIN MAY DETERMINE ELECTION
OUTCOME
REF: NEW DELHI 000659
1. (SBU) Summary: On February 21st, an estimated 55-60% of
Uttarakhand's 6 million member electorate voted in the second
Legislative Assembly election since the state was created out
of Uttar Pradesh in 2000 (reftel). The main battle was
between the BJP and Congress for sixty-nine assembly seats
and one Lok Sabha seat. Polls for one assembly were delayed
due to the death of its Congress party candidate. Polling
was peaceful, despite some hiccups with a few electronic
voting machines and some names missing from voter lists.
State Congress leader and incumbent Chief Minister N D Tiwari
did not run for a seat, leaving the party without a clear
chief ministerial candidate, potentially hurting Congress's
chances to hold on to the state. The election commission
will report the results on February 27th, along with those of
Punjab and Manipur. End Summary.
Exit Polls Unreliable
--------------
2. (SBU) Although most exit polls gave a clear, but slim,
victory to the BJP, an NDTV poll predicted a tie. In such a
tight race, exit polls (always of questionable value in
India) cannot provide a reliable indicator of the outcome.
According to the HT/CNN-IBN poll, the BJP can expect to
garner about 34% of the votes for an estimated 33-39 seats,
with Congress receiving an estimated 31%, gaining between
21-27 seats. Such an outcome would be a reversal of the 2002
elections, in which Congress won 36 seats and the BJP 19,
with the remainder going to various regional parties and
independents. Despite the wide variance in seats, the
electoral divide between the BJP and Congress in that race
was just over one percent. The NDTV poll suggests, however,
that the ruling Congress and opposition BJP are both set to
get 25-35 seats in the 70-member assembly. In such a "hung
assembly," the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Uttarakhand
Kranti Dal (UKD),would likely break the deadlock by joining
with Congress to form the government.
Congress Hurt by Lack of Leadership
-------------- ---
3. (SBU) Comment: In Indian state politics, it is usually
an uphill battle for the incumbent to hold on to power. That
is even more so in the case of Uttarakhand, where regional
parties are ineffectual and politics are dominated by
Congress and the BJP. This "anti-incumbency factor" is
further compounded by the retirement of Chief Minister and
Congress party "grand old man" N. D. Tiwari. Initially, his
failure to run for a legislative assembly seat in this
election opened him up to accusations of "cowardice" from the
BJP. In the final days of the campaign, Tiwari declared
publicly that he will not serve as Chief Minister again.
Although Tiwari gives his age (82) and his indifferent health
as reasons for retiring, the Hindustan Times cited Congress
party sources as saying that Tiwari hopes to succeed A. P. J.
Abdul Kalam as President of India when Kalam's term ends
later this year. Based on previous PolOff meetings with him,
Tiwari seems to have tired of running a small state and wants
to return to the national political stage where he is more at
NEW DELHI 00000910 002 OF 002
home. Tiwari's departure has provided the BJP with a
political Godsend, as its own popular--and much younger at
65--former Chief Minister, Bhagat Singh Koshiyari, is fully
set to take up the Chief Minister's mantle.
4. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD