INDIA CONCERNED ABOUT VIOLENCE POSSIBLY CROSSING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000863 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NP IN SUBJECT: INDIA CONCERNED ABOUT VIOLENCE POSSIBLY CROSSING NEPAL BORDER Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Government of India (GOI) officials acknowledged February 7 that India is concerned about the possibility of violence in Nepal's Terai region spilling over into India. The government of Nepal (GON) should address the concerns of ethnic Indian Madhesis who have been violently protesting in the region for weeks, officials claim, adding that the GOI was "tightening its border" with Nepal. Indicating that the GOI was happy with the progress of arms management, they asked if the U.S. would talk to Maoists once they were allowed to join the Interim Government. Nepali Prime Minister Koirala's daughter, Sujata Koirala, visiting New Delhi, said the GOI was right to be worried about the prospect of cross-border violence. She blamed Indian Hindu fundamentalists and monarchists for causing trouble in the Terai, and suggested that "India should help" Nepal to cope with the violence. She claimed that Maoists were still carrying weapons and were intimidating potential voters in the countryside. END SUMMARY. GOI: It's Up to Nepal to Address Concerns of Protesters -------------- ¶2. (C) MEA North Director Sudhakar Dalela told PolOff February 7 that the government of India (GOI) was concerned about the possibility of violence in the Terai region of Nepal spilling over the border, but that so far, things had remained calm on the Indian side. Ethnic Indian Madhesis protesting for civil rights and better representation in the government had caused the unrest. The GOI's position, he said, was that the government of Nepal (GON) should address the concerns of the Madhesis, and that it would be up to them to decide how to do that. India Tightens Its Border With Nepal -------------- ¶3. (C) Asked if the GOI was taking any action regarding the unrest, Dalela responded that India was "tightening the border, although it is very porous," and noted India's Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) border guarding force was deployed all along the Indo-Nepalese border. Turning to media reports and rumors that the BJP, RSS and VHP might be involved in creating unrest in the region, Dalela remarked that the possibility could not be ruled out. ¶4. (C) In a visit to Madhubani District in Bihar (near the Nepal border) on February 16, Embassy New Delhi Locally Engaged Staff member, Kailash Jha, observed a small plane and a helicopter, both of which appeared to be surveying the area. The nearest airport is twenty-one miles away, and it was unusual to see airplanes in the area, noted Jha, who is from the region. Jha suspects that the aircraft were surveying the border region on behalf of the Indian government, possibly in anticipation of unrest during the February 16 Shivaratri festival. Local residents told Jha that similar aircraft had been seen "over the last few days," and confirmed that this was unusual. They also remarked that NEW DELHI 00000863 002 OF 003 the SSB had indeed appeared to be tightening the border, stopping residents and asking for their itineraries, reason for travel and identification. Normally, Indians crossed the border freely without being stopped, according to local residents. Asked whether they believed in the possibility of a separatist movement, in which Madhesis would demand secession from Nepal, residents told Jha that it was not likely to happen immediately, but that there was a possibility such a movement could occur in the future. Arms Management Going Smoothly Says GOI -------------- ¶5. (C) On arms management, Dalela said that the GOI agreed with UN Special Representative to the Secretary General, Ian Martin, who had said the process was going smoothly. MEA North Under Secretary Manish Gupta affirmed that arms management had to be complete and credible before the Maoists were allowed to join the Interim Government. Gupta wanted to know what the U.S. would do once the Maoists joined the government. "Would the U.S. talk to them?" he wondered. (Note: This conversation took place two days after the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a license authorizing the State Department and USAID to continue providing economic and development assistance to the GON, even if the Maoists join the government. End note.) "India Has Cause for Concern Regarding Terai Violence" -------------- ¶6. (C) Sujata Koirala, daughter of Nepali Prime Minister GP Koirala and Nepali Congress party MP, warned PolOff February 14 that the GOI had cause for concern regarding violence in the Terai, noting that it could spread across the border into India. Koirala, visiting New Delhi for two days in connection with a speech, said, "I think they should be worried," conjecturing that the Terai region was becoming "anti-Indian" in the face of violence in the region attributed to ethnic Indian Madhesis. Koirala, whose constituency is in the Terai, claimed that "criminal gangs" could be hired from Bihar on the Indian side of the border to stir up violence on the Nepal side. Koirala blamed Indian Hindu fundamentalists and monarchists for causing trouble, but stated that she did not think India's rightist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was involved. "India should help," she asserted, adding that she thought India's foreign intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), could play a positive role in reining in the Maoists. Koirala was quoted the next day by the press as having said that Nepal's stability was crucial for India, declaring, "If there is fire in the neighborhood, it will only be a matter of time before it spreads to your house." Koirala indicated to reporters that India should look at the situation in Nepal seriously and do whatever is necessary to manage it. Maoists Still Armed and Potential Voters Fear Them -------------- ¶7. (C) On Maoists, Koirala complained that they were still NEW DELHI 00000863 003 OF 003 armed and that they had been bringing their weapons with them to Parliament. There had been "no preparation" for upcoming elections, Koirala opined, adding that people were unable to go back to their villages to register to vote for fear of Maoist intimidation. Regarding her father's health, Koirala noted that the Prime Minister, who had been diagnosed with Hepatitis E, was very ill, and that "anything could happen at any time." Comment: Still Under India's Shadow -------------- ¶8. (C) While post does not concur with Koirala's assessment that the Terai is becoming "anti-Indian," it is clear that the issue of cross-border violence is important both to India and to the media. Though the GOI is remaining tight-lipped on whether or not it has evidence of Indian involvement in the Terai region, surprisingly, officials acknowledge it can't be ruled out. Koirala, who is deeply suspicious of India, still calls upon the GOI to help quell the unrest, showing yet again that India has a major role to play. End comment. ¶9. (U) This message has been coordinated with Embassy Kathmandu. MULFORD