MORE BAD NEWS FOR U.P. CHIEF MINISTER MULAYAM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000776 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN SUBJECT: MORE BAD NEWS FOR U.P. CHIEF MINISTER MULAYAM REF: A. NEW DELHI 396 ¶B. NEW DELHI 346 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Atul Keshap for reasons 1.4 ( B,D) ¶1. (SBU) In Uttar Pradesh (UP),the shaky and beleaguered government of Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav (reftels) came another step closer to falling on February 14. The Supreme Court ruled that the defection of 13 MLAs from the opposition BSP to the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) on August 27, 2003 was engineered as a "one-time" event to allow the SP to obtain a majority and form the government and disqualified them. The SP had argued that the defections were genuine and permanent and based on ideological considerations. The party's assertions were belied by the fact that nine of the 13 were made state Cabinet Ministers just days after their defections. ¶2. (SBU) The dismissal of the 13 MLAs reduces the SP to a razor thin majority and puts the opposition within striking distance of attempting a successful vote of no-confidence. Prior to the disqualifications, the SP coalition had 209 seats in a house of 392. This has now been reduced to 196. In addition, this could be only the first tranche of disqualifications. Twenty four other BSP defectors are also facing court scrutiny and potential disqualification. ¶3. (SBU) Although the opposition parties have not yet made their intentions clear, they have been emboldened by this latest SP setback. Lalji Tandon (BJP),the opposition leader in the Legislative Assembly refused to confirm that a vote of no-confidence is imminent. However, he stated that UP is in the "throes of a constitutional crisis." Tandon maintained that the SC's adverse ruling confirmed that the SP did not enjoy a majority and was relying on defectors to remain in power. He again called on the UPA to dismiss Mulayam's government. BSP MP Satish Chandra Mishra, the party's principal power broker, noted that "by implication," the remaining 24 MLAs were in the same status as the 13 who were dismissed and should also be disqualified. UP Congress President Salman Khurshid repeated his assertion that UP's "illegally formed government should be dismissed legally." Comment: Pressure on Mulayam Builds -------------- ¶4. (C) The opposition parties have been working in concert around a one-point agenda, the removal of Mulayam's corrupt and discredited regime before elections (which must take place before May). It will take them some time, however, to devise a strategy to take best advantage of the SC ruling. The opposition is most likely to give the courts some more time to disqualify the remaining 24 MLAs before considering whether to call a vote of no-confidence. In such an event, it would take time (and money) for the opposition parties to rope in the needed votes from independent MLAs (who will demand a heavy price for their support). In the interim they will continue to keep the prospect of "President's Rule" alive, as a sword of Damocles hanging over Mulayam's head. ¶5. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) NEW DELHI 00000776 002 OF 002 MULFORD