Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NEWDELHI776
2007-02-15 11:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
MORE BAD NEWS FOR U.P. CHIEF MINISTER MULAYAM
how-toVZCZCXRO8642 OO RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHPW DE RUEHNE #0776/01 0461105 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 151105Z FEB 07 FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3081 INFO RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT 0684 RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ASTANA 0790 RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5315 RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 0715 RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 8818 RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 8897 RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 0509 RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 2076 RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 9530 RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 1361 RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT 0896 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 4449 RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 8625 RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 8907 RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 6814 RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 3587 RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 8079 RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 4178 RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3757 RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 6104 RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000776
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: MORE BAD NEWS FOR U.P. CHIEF MINISTER MULAYAM
REF: A. NEW DELHI 396
B. NEW DELHI 346
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Atul Keshap for reasons 1.4 (
B,D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000776
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: MORE BAD NEWS FOR U.P. CHIEF MINISTER MULAYAM
REF: A. NEW DELHI 396
B. NEW DELHI 346
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Atul Keshap for reasons 1.4 (
B,D)
1. (SBU) In Uttar Pradesh (UP),the shaky and beleaguered
government of Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav (reftels)
came another step closer to falling on February 14. The
Supreme Court ruled that the defection of 13 MLAs from the
opposition BSP to the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) on August
27, 2003 was engineered as a "one-time" event to allow the SP
to obtain a majority and form the government and disqualified
them. The SP had argued that the defections were genuine and
permanent and based on ideological considerations. The
party's assertions were belied by the fact that nine of the
13 were made state Cabinet Ministers just days after their
defections.
2. (SBU) The dismissal of the 13 MLAs reduces the SP to a
razor thin majority and puts the opposition within striking
distance of attempting a successful vote of no-confidence.
Prior to the disqualifications, the SP coalition had 209
seats in a house of 392. This has now been reduced to 196.
In addition, this could be only the first tranche of
disqualifications. Twenty four other BSP defectors are also
facing court scrutiny and potential disqualification.
3. (SBU) Although the opposition parties have not yet made
their intentions clear, they have been emboldened by this
latest SP setback. Lalji Tandon (BJP),the opposition leader
in the Legislative Assembly refused to confirm that a vote of
no-confidence is imminent. However, he stated that UP is in
the "throes of a constitutional crisis." Tandon maintained
that the SC's adverse ruling confirmed that the SP did not
enjoy a majority and was relying on defectors to remain in
power. He again called on the UPA to dismiss Mulayam's
government. BSP MP Satish Chandra Mishra, the party's
principal power broker, noted that "by implication," the
remaining 24 MLAs were in the same status as the 13 who were
dismissed and should also be disqualified. UP Congress
President Salman Khurshid repeated his assertion that UP's
"illegally formed government should be dismissed legally."
Comment: Pressure on Mulayam Builds
--------------
4. (C) The opposition parties have been working in concert
around a one-point agenda, the removal of Mulayam's corrupt
and discredited regime before elections (which must take
place before May). It will take them some time, however, to
devise a strategy to take best advantage of the SC ruling.
The opposition is most likely to give the courts some more
time to disqualify the remaining 24 MLAs before considering
whether to call a vote of no-confidence. In such an event,
it would take time (and money) for the opposition parties to
rope in the needed votes from independent MLAs (who will
demand a heavy price for their support). In the interim they
will continue to keep the prospect of "President's Rule"
alive, as a sword of Damocles hanging over Mulayam's head.
5. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
NEW DELHI 00000776 002 OF 002
MULFORD
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: MORE BAD NEWS FOR U.P. CHIEF MINISTER MULAYAM
REF: A. NEW DELHI 396
B. NEW DELHI 346
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Atul Keshap for reasons 1.4 (
B,D)
1. (SBU) In Uttar Pradesh (UP),the shaky and beleaguered
government of Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav (reftels)
came another step closer to falling on February 14. The
Supreme Court ruled that the defection of 13 MLAs from the
opposition BSP to the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) on August
27, 2003 was engineered as a "one-time" event to allow the SP
to obtain a majority and form the government and disqualified
them. The SP had argued that the defections were genuine and
permanent and based on ideological considerations. The
party's assertions were belied by the fact that nine of the
13 were made state Cabinet Ministers just days after their
defections.
2. (SBU) The dismissal of the 13 MLAs reduces the SP to a
razor thin majority and puts the opposition within striking
distance of attempting a successful vote of no-confidence.
Prior to the disqualifications, the SP coalition had 209
seats in a house of 392. This has now been reduced to 196.
In addition, this could be only the first tranche of
disqualifications. Twenty four other BSP defectors are also
facing court scrutiny and potential disqualification.
3. (SBU) Although the opposition parties have not yet made
their intentions clear, they have been emboldened by this
latest SP setback. Lalji Tandon (BJP),the opposition leader
in the Legislative Assembly refused to confirm that a vote of
no-confidence is imminent. However, he stated that UP is in
the "throes of a constitutional crisis." Tandon maintained
that the SC's adverse ruling confirmed that the SP did not
enjoy a majority and was relying on defectors to remain in
power. He again called on the UPA to dismiss Mulayam's
government. BSP MP Satish Chandra Mishra, the party's
principal power broker, noted that "by implication," the
remaining 24 MLAs were in the same status as the 13 who were
dismissed and should also be disqualified. UP Congress
President Salman Khurshid repeated his assertion that UP's
"illegally formed government should be dismissed legally."
Comment: Pressure on Mulayam Builds
--------------
4. (C) The opposition parties have been working in concert
around a one-point agenda, the removal of Mulayam's corrupt
and discredited regime before elections (which must take
place before May). It will take them some time, however, to
devise a strategy to take best advantage of the SC ruling.
The opposition is most likely to give the courts some more
time to disqualify the remaining 24 MLAs before considering
whether to call a vote of no-confidence. In such an event,
it would take time (and money) for the opposition parties to
rope in the needed votes from independent MLAs (who will
demand a heavy price for their support). In the interim they
will continue to keep the prospect of "President's Rule"
alive, as a sword of Damocles hanging over Mulayam's head.
5. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
NEW DELHI 00000776 002 OF 002
MULFORD