INDIAN REACTION TO BHUTTO ASSASSINATION: UNIVERSAL CONDEMNATION, AND WORRY OVER CONTROL OF PAK-BASED TERRORISTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005422



SIPDIS



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2017

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, KISL, ASEC, PK, IN

SUBJECT: INDIAN REACTION TO BHUTTO ASSASSINATION: UNIVERSAL

CONDEMNATION, AND WORRY OVER CONTROL OF PAK-BASED TERRORISTS



REF: NEW DELHI 5421



Classified By: A/DCM Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)



1. (C) Summary. Indian officials reacted quickly to news of

the assassination of Benazir Bhutto with statements

condemning the heinous crime, sympathy for the victims of the

attack, and a call for the continuation of the democratic

transition, while commentators voiced concern over the

Pakistani government's ability to control anti-India

terrorists based on Pakistani soil. Indian forces have

stepped up security along the India-Pakistan border in an

attempt to stop any terrorists trying to take advantage of

any possible instability to infiltrate. FM Mukherjee will

travel to Pakistan on December 29 to head India's official

delegation to Bhutto's memorial ceremonies. The USA received

criticism in the media and from contacts for its "nave"

Pakistan policy. A large number of Embassy contacts believe

President Musharraf had a hand in the assassination, despite

the Al Qaeda claims of responsibility. For India, further

instability in Pakistan is deeply worrisome, because any

loosening of the leash on Pakistan-based terrorist groups --

whether due to a backlash, or on purpose, or because the GOP

is distracted -- could mean many hundreds more civilian

deaths all across India. End Summary.



Indian Leaders Condemn Attack

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2. (C) Indian leaders across the spectrum were quick to

condemn the attack and offer condolences to victims. Prime

Minister Singh, traveling in Goa, described the assassination

as "heinous," noted Bhutto's contributions to "break

India-Pakistan relations out of the sterile patterns of the

past," and said the manner in which she was killed is a

reminder of the danger terrorism poses to the region. The

Prime Minister later visited the Pakistani High Commission

personally to sign the condolence book. President Patil,

Congress Party leader Sonia Ghandi, BJP leaders LK Advani and

Atal Behari Vajpayee, Foreign Minister Mukherjee, the

Politburo of the Communist Party of India (Marxist),Hurriyat

Conference chairman Mirwaiz Umer Farooq, the Jammu and

Kashmir Liberation Front, and other prominent GOI officials

all offered statements expressing shock, sadness, and a

desire for Pakistan's transition to democracy to continue.

The outpouring by the GOI was noted by Pakistani Deputy High

Commissioner Afrasiab while A/DCM signed the condolence book

on December 28, and First Secretary Janbaz Khan remarked that

the Indian government had been quite supportive since news of

the attack broke.



Little Worry Of Street Violence In India In Short Term, But

Concern Over Terrorists

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3. (C) Ministry of External Affairs Deputy Secretary

(Pakistan) G Balasubramanian confirmed that the GOI is

closely monitoring the situation on the street in Pakistani

cities, however, there have been no reports of any particular

incidents in India. Nor does Post expect any, as the

assassination is generally seen here as having been free of

any communal or sectarian overtones. (Note: The Embassy's

Emergency Action Committee meeting's assessment is reported

in reftel. End Note.) Srinagar, the summer capital of

Jammu-Kashmir, has completely shut down following a call for

a protest strike by separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani,

according to press. Balasubramanian told Poloff the GOI has

tightened security along the Line of Control and

international border with Pakistan in the expectation

that a backlash against terrorist groups in Pakistan could

lead them to seek refuge across the Indian border. Indian

police are stepping up precautionary measures and Emboffs saw

around 50 extra New Delhi police officers stationed outside

the Pakistani High Commission.



4. (C) Several Embassy contacts expressed the view that the

danger to India is not in the immediate aftermath of this

incident, but in the weeks and months ahead if the Pakistan

government is unable to control armed extremists from



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pursuing their "death by a thousand cuts" strategy against

India. Qari Mian Mazhari, editor of a Muslim newspaper,

echoing a theme heard from contacts throughout the day, told

Pol FSN, "For India there is no immediate danger. But, an

insecure, unstable, non-democratic Pakistan would create all

kinds of problems for India." The Economic Times warned of

ominous portents for India, saying "India's anxiety also

stems from its past experiences. For the familiar reflex of

Pakistan in the times of crisis is to increase terror

activities in India for diverting attention."



FM Mukherjee To Lead Delegation To Pakistan

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5. (C) Balasubramanian stated that while preparations are

still being arranged, he expects FM Mukherjee to depart in

the morning of December 29, accompanied by other senior GOI

members, to lead an official delegation to commemorate

Bhutto's passing. He noted that it is MEA's understanding

that the December 28 funeral was to be a private affair,

therefore the GOI delegation would depart on the 29th.

Afrasiab confirmed that he had been told by the GOI that

Mukherjee would go on the 29th. The Indian Express reported

that the GOI is considering sending an all-party delegation

as a mark of respect for Bhutto and to show support for

Pakistani democracy aspirations.



GOI Careful To Avoid Interference, Hopeful Dialogue Will

Continue As Planned

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6. (SBU) The GOI is consciously avoiding any statements

regarding the political and/or security situation in

Pakistan, Balasubramanian said, wishing to avoid any remarks

which could be misconstrued as interference in Pakistan's

internal affairs. He added that it is too soon to determine

how this incident could affect ongoing confidence building

measure talks and other dialogue, but noted such dialogue has

survived other crises in the recent past.



Embassy Contacts Suspect Musharraf, Criticize U.S. For

Pakistan Policy

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7. (C) While media has been reporting the al-Qaeda claim of

responsibility for the attack, most contacts Post spoke with

early on December 28 believe President Musharraf had a hand

in it. Hard News editor Sanjay Kapoor told Pol FSN "The

needle of suspicion is on the General. His crocodile tears

on Benazir's killing and frequent references to the terrorist

angle are aimed at confusing Washington about the 'real

enemy' of Pakistan." Zaheer Mustafa, editor of an Urdu

daily, told us "It is quite obvious that General Musharraf's

enemy attitude towards the opposition and lack of security

for such leaders provided ample opportunities for the killers

to organize the gruesome assassination. One should not

forget who benefited the most out of this killing."



8. (C) In a front page sidebar, the Indian Express called the

incident "grim news" for the United States. Continuing with

criticism that emerged in the media in recent days over

accusations that U.S. military aid to Pakistan had been

diverted to areas that could possibly be used against India,

several contacts suggested the U.S. had been naive to support

Musharraf. Political commentator Zafar Agha told Post "The

General has gone beyond the control of the U.S. and the West.

He diverted U.S. help to buy arms...and went for all

draconian measures to stop the opposition leaders and other

challengers." Interfaith Harmony Foundation Chairman Khwaja

Iftikhar Ahmad said "This is high time that the United States

should focus more on Pakistan to ensure its stability and

read into the Janus-faced General. The media exposure about

U.S. fund diversion really annoyed the General and the

political vested interest in Pakistan."



Comment

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9. (C) Comment. We suspect heightened fears in India over



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the threat of terrorists from Pakistan have been raised to a

level that will not recede for the foreseeable future. The

shock and sympathy expressed by Indian officials in the

immediate aftermath of the incident was sincere, but India

will be watching its neighbor very closely in the coming

months for signs that the leash may be slipping on

extremists, whether on purpose or inadvertently or due to

circumstances beyond the GOP,s control. While Indian

officials have tried for years to refrain from publicly

criticizing U.S. policy on Pakistan, we expect criticism to

rise from media and intelligentsia circles who increasingly

perceive as naive the U.S. understanding of Pakistan

dynamics. For India, the primary interest at this time is a

stable Pakistan that can control extremism. Throughout the

crises of 2007, India's backing remained with Musharraf as

the best bet for helping Pakistan manage a soft landing. If

things get worse, However, or if a better prospect seems

prudent, that support could wane. Thankfully, Indian

officials are so worried that they appear eager to avoid any

controversy which could stoke the tensions stemming from this

atrocious attack.

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