BJP LEADERSHIP SHUFFLE COMPOUNDS CONFUSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000535 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM KIRF IN SUBJECT: BJP LEADERSHIP SHUFFLE COMPOUNDS CONFUSION Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) Rajnath Singh Shakes Up the Leadership -------------- ¶1. (U) On January 29, BJP Party President Rajnath Singh announced a shake-up in the party leadership. He moved Arun Jaitley, considered by many to be the most articulate and perhaps the sharpest of the party's Generation Next leadership, from "Party Spokesman" to "Secretary of the Parliamentary Board," a position unfilled since the death of Pramod Mahajan in May 2006. In a surprise move, Singh also dropped controversial but popular BJP standard bearer Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi from the Parliamentary Board and the Central Election Committee (CEC). Considered among the most prestigious BJP leadership organizations, the CEC distributes valuable election tickets for all state and parliamentary elections. Politics watchers characterized these developments as a reflection of the deep divisions within the BJP and between Party President Rajnath Singh and Opposition Leader LK Advani. Modi is considered to be among Advani's leading political proteges, and his dismissal was intrepreted as an attempt by Rajnath Singh to snub his archrival. Putting the Best Face Forward -------------- ¶2. (C) However, Seshadiri Chari, (former editor of the BJP newspaper the Organizer and an RSS insider) denied that there was any antipathy between Singh and Advani. Chari insisted to us that the move was actually part of an RSS strategy aimed at preparing Modi for a greater role in the 2009 national elections. According to Chari, the RSS concurred with Singh's move to relieve Modi of distracting administrative duties and free him to campaign throughout India and boost his image and profile. Modi's recent visit to Kerala is supposedly part of this strategy. As evidence of the RSS imprint on this leadership shuffle, Chari pointed out that Rajnath also inducted several hardline Hindutva types with strong RSS connections into leadership positions. These include Ram Lal, a senior RSS member named BJP Party Secretary, and Ananth Kumar, an RSS favorite, named to the SIPDIS Parliamentary board. Other hardliners pushed up to the leadership include Balbir Punj and Dharmendra Pradhan, both named as BJP Secretaries. Chari maintained that former Foreign Minister Yashwant Singh was made a Party Vice President as a reward for towing the RSS line. If Chari's version is correct, these shifts are actually evidence that the RSS is tightening its direct control over the BJP. The BJP Schism is Alive and Well -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In addition to the murky infighting within the party leadership, the BJP has undergone a schism, with the formation by former BJP superstar Uma Bharati of her own Bharatiya Jan Shakti (BJS) party. Initially, the BJP dismissed the BJS as an ineffectual vanity party and predicted that Bharati would soon come begging to be readmitted. Things have not turned out that way. The BJS has become a major challenge to BJP domination of the Hindu right. On January 29, former Delhi Chief Minister Madanlal NEW DELHI 00000535 002 OF 002 Khurana announced that he had permanently cut his ties with the BJP and had signed on to the BSP as "acting Party President." On the same day, Bharati announced that her party would contest all seats in the upcoming Uttarakhand elections, and field a large number of candidates in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, as well as contesting most seats in the New Delhi municipal polls scheduled for March. Comment - Couldn't Happen to Nicer Guys -------------- ¶4. (C) BJP infighting is good news for Congress. The recently published India Today poll indicated that Congress is slowly gaining popularity and firming up its hold on power, while the BJP continues to stagnate. With this in mind, a solid majority of Indians now feel that Congress will serve out its full five year term and do fairly well in this year's state election contests, where the BJP has not yet gained traction. With the BJP and BJS now fighting over the same set of right-wing voters, BJP support will be more split than ever. The BJP has been locked in an ideological struggle between its saffron (Hindutva) wing and its pro-business wing since it lost power in 2004. Most in Congress would welcome the emergence of the Hindutva crowd at the helm of the party, as religious nationalism no longer seems to be the winning card that will propel the BJP back to power. It also scares the hell out of much of the electorate. ¶5. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) MULFORD