DELHI DIARY, NOVEMBER 22-30

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 005157 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER SENV ECON CH BM IN SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, NOVEMBER 22-30 ¶1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from Embassy New Delhi for November 22-30,2007 that did not feature in our other reporting, including: -- India Freezes Arms sales to Burma -- India votes against the UN's draft resolution on Burma -- PM Singh to Visit China -- Indian is First Asian Elected Secretary-General of the Commonwealth -- Communist Land Grab in Kerala This Time -- Delhi: A Losing Battle Against Air Pollution in the Short Term? -- India Slips in UNDP's Human Development Index: GOI Finds Fault With Recommendations India Freezes Arms Sales to Burma -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Hindustan Times reported on November 26 that South Block has finally decided to freeze all arms sales and transfers to Burma in the wake of the junta's brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrators in September. According to the press report, the MEA source said that India "believes that contact with the junta is in its strategic interests, but also wants to send out a message that it is not quite business as usual any longer." Perhaps, the operative word here is "quite," as the GOI continues to forge ahead with its plan to invest USD$ 103 million to renovate Burma's Sittwe Port in an effort to open up India's northeastern states to ASEAN markets. India's response to the regime's violent suppression of pro-democracy forces remains slow and incremental. India Votes Against the UN's Draft Resolution on Burma -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Along with China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan, among others, India voted against the UNGA Third Committee's draft resolution on the human rights situation in Burma on November 20. India's representative told the Committee that "India has consistently maintained that all initiatives vis-a-vis Myanmar should be forward-looking, non-condemnatory, and seek to engage the government in a non-intrusive and constructive manner." While India's negative vote is not surpising given its soft stance on the Burmese junta and its longstanding policy to vote against UN initiatives aimed at particular countries, it's ironic that they cast their vote beside China, which the GOI cites in its regional balance of power argument as its primary compulsion for continuing to engage the junta. PM Singh to Visit China -------------- ¶4. (U) The Government of India announced that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will visit China on January 12-13. Media sources report that Singh will focus on expanding economic ties, discuss congruence on regional and global issues (read: climate change and U.N. reform),and reiterate India's comittment to a "fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable solution to the boundary question." In addition, "The Hindu" quoted government sources as stating that Singh aims to "take the India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity to the next level." Indian is First Asian Elected Secretary-General of the Commonwealth -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Current High Commissioner to the U.K. Kamlesh Sharma was selected as the new Secretary-General of the Commonwealth at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Kampala, Uganda on November 23. According to sources, India lobbied hard to sway Canada, Australia, and New Zealand after gaining initial support from African member states. Sharma will assume charge on April 1, 2008, succeeding Secretary-General Don McKinnon of New Zealand. Addressing SIPDIS the Indian media after his selection, Sharma stated that he will strive to ensure that the Commonwealth is a mainstream NEW DELHI 00005157 002 OF 004 organization and to achieve a balance between growth and development so that visible prosperity can be achieved for all member states. Sharma is the first Asian to be elected to lead the organization. His first challenge will be balancing the Commonwealth's expulsion of Pakistan with India's concentrated efforts to avoid criticizing Musharraf's recent domestic maneouvers. Communist Land Grab in Kerala This Time -------------- ¶6. (U) According to media reports, 2000 cadres of the Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPM) forcibly occupied laid claim to about 1500 acres of land in the eastern Kerala highlands on November 26 after physically chasing away about 200 landless tribal families from the area. The incident occurred in the Chinnakkanal section of Kerala's Munnar district, which is known for its tea estates and scenic landscape. In a well planned operation, the CPM workers were trucked into the area. After forcing the tribals away from the area, the CPM cadres destroyed the tribals' huts, fenced off the area, and planted CPM flags. The land in contention was previously unoccupied reserve forest land belonging to the government. Tribals had begun encroaching on the land two weeks earlier in protest that they had not been given land that had been legally granted to them in 2003. ¶7. (U) The conflict has been diffused somewhat since the CPM land grab on November 26. First, the Additional District Magistrate called an all-party mediation meeting in which the CPM agreed to move out, the tribals agreed not to move back, and the government pledged to immediately take action on the tribals' demands. Whether the agreement endures, remains to be seen. According to media reports, tribal leaders believe the "the aim of the Marxist is to confuse the Government by saying Adivasis (i.e., tribals) who put huts here are not entitled to land." CPM leaders alleged the tribal families are being used by "foreign funded NGOs" to grab government property. The Communist Party of India (CPI),which is a CPM coalition partner in Kerala's LDF government, took vigorous exception to the actions of the CPM workers. The state Congress Party alleged that the CPM was working at the behest of the "land mafia." ¶8. (SBU) The CPM action in Munnar comes shortly after the Nandigram imbroglio in West Bengal, where armed CPM cadre went on a rampage to evict thousands of land-owners (reftels). While comparisons are inevitable, there are important differences between Munnar and Nandigram. Although there is tension in Munnar, there is no comparable violence or confrontation. Both the tribals and the CPM are guilty of encroaching on public land in Munnar whereas the CPM drove out long-established villagers from their homes and land in Nandigram. A resolution appears to be at hand in Munnar, while Nandigram is a long-drawn out confrontation with no resolution in sight. And, unlike in West Bengal, where thirty years of uninterrupted rule has given the CPM a lock on power, the presence of a strong opposition Congress Party serves as a check on the Kerala's CPM, making Nandigram-style excesses unlikely. That said, the similarities of tactics employed by the CPM in Munnar and Nandigram -- heavy-handed physical intimidation, forcible grabbing of land, identifying weak and defenseless victims to bully -- demonstrate the ruthless authoritarian approach the CPM uses to get its way. Even more worrisome for democratic institutions and rule of law in India is an allegation leveled by a Kerala Congress leader: the CPM goal in Munnar is to change the demographic and electoral profile in the district by relocating CPM families into the area (and presumably chasing out non-CPM households.) Delhi: A Losing Battle Against Air Pollution in the Short Term? -------------- ¶9. (U) Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dixit would like to make a significant dent in the capital's air pollution by 2010, when the city hosts the next round of the Commonwealth Games. When respiratory illnesses plaguing Delhites reached their NEW DELHI 00005157 003 OF 004 peak in 1998, Delhi was considered one of the top ten most polluted cities in the world. In response to a public outcry and given the lack of political will by the state government to change the situation, the Indian Supreme Court stepped in to order the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for public transport. Delhi residents and frequent visitors attest to the dramatic change in air quality that resulted from the mandate. Delhi's CNG-powered public transportation system has generated considerable international chatter and admiration. However, the sharp rise in the number of cars on the road has offset these impressive gains. ¶10. (U) Dixit's call for a still more radical reduction in air pollution came last week when she inaugurated the international conference "CNG -- Averting Disaster." She outlined the Delhi government's environmental policy, underscoring her government's commitment to making the city "pollution-free" within the next three years. She noted the purchase of a new fleet of CNG-powered buses as well as efforts to convert 40,000 smaller commercial vehicles from diesel to CNG. ¶11. (U) Comment: Dixit and Delhi may, however, be fighting a loosing battle. As Indian economic growth has accelerated to record levels during the last five years, there has been an explosion in the number of commercial and private vehicles in Delhi. The sharpest increase has been in the number of diesel-powered vehicles which tend to have higher emissions. An Indian automobile industry group estimates that the number of diesel-run cars in India is expected to increase 50 percent in the next three years. The sheer pace of traffic congestion and the resultant emissions in Delhi is likely to be a stumbling block to Dixit's administration to implement clean air policies. Additn to the sharp rise in car ownership will be the One Lakh Car proposed by Tata Motors, India's largest auto manufacturer. Tata is expected to release the world's cheapest car valued at USD 2500 in 2009. The proposed "people's car" will make it more affordable for tens of millions of Indian households who until now could only dream of owning an automobile. While there are many economic and societal benefits from such a development, the price of such a mass produced car could be the pressure it places on air pollution. Dixit remains undeterred, intending to extend pollution control measures to all the states in the national Capital region and calling on the people to "speak up against diesel-run cars." End Comment. India Slips in UNDP's Human Development Index: GOI Finds Fault With Recommendations -------------- ¶12. (SBU) On November 27, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released its annual Human Development Report showing that India's ranking in the UNDP's Human Development Index (HDI) dropped two places from 126 to 128 between 2006 and 2007. The HDI is a UNDP-developed measure of life expectancy, literacy, education, standard of living and well-being of residents of countries world-wide. Despite an improvement in India's gross HDI value due primarily to solid gains in GDP and gross school enrollment, India's ranking fell because of better performance of other countries. The report acknowledges the high rates of economic growth achieved by India in recent years but warns that the benefits have been unequally shared among the rich and poor in India, with 28 percent of its population (320 million) still living below the poverty line. ¶13. (SBU) The 2007 UNDP report strongly suggests that climate change could reverse steady linear progress in health, education, and poverty reduction. The report states South Asia and the Gangetic plain will suffer the most from climate change due to flooding and temperature variations, which will affect agriculture. According to the report, a temperature rise of between three and four degrees Celsius would displace 340 million people through floods and draughts. Linking climate disaster with grave setbacks in social indicators, like nutritional status and education, particularly among women and girls, the report recommends all countries reduce carbon emissions. Specifically, the UNDP NEW DELHI 00005157 004 OF 004 report recommends developed nations reduce carbon emissions at least 30 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050. It also recommends developing countries reduce their carbon emissions at least 20 percent by 2050. ¶14. (SBU) Planning Commission Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia trashed the report and its recommendations, claiming the recommendations are not fair, even if they appear egalitarian. Ahluwalia argued that a reduction strategy should be based on per capita emissions rather than total emissions which place a disproportionate burden on countries such as India, which have a much smaller carbon footprint. He asserted that developing countries should be allowed to increase their emissions while wealthier countries should reduce theirs. ¶15. (SBU) Comment: India's fall in the UNDP rankings came as a rude shock to many Indians who in recent years have gotten used to a continuous diet of positive stories about India's economic resurgence and finding its rightful place on the international stage. The UNDP report serves to remind Indians that despite its economic take-off, India has a long way to go before it can join the ranks of the developed countries. In terms of the report's recommendations on carbon emissions, India sees the UNDP prescriptions shackling its upward economic mobility and its push for the sustained 8-10 percent economic growth it needs in order to expand economic benefits of growth to the rural population. End Comment. MULFORD