DELHI DIARY, NOVEMBER 16-21

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 005047 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR IR PK AF CH SN KS JP RS, UG, AS, NZ, IN SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, NOVEMBER 16-21 REF: NEW DELHI 4700 NEW DELHI 00005047 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from Embassy New Delhi for November 16-21, 2007 that did not feature in our other reporting, including: -- MEA Concerns about Negotiating with the Taliban -- PM Singh Uses ASEAN to Urge Burma to Expedite the Reconciliation Process -- Three Arrested for Scheming to Kidnap Rahul Gandhi and Others -- Rahul Continues His Ascent -- The Other Election: Himachal Pradesh -- Prime Minister Singh to Attend the CHOGM Summit in Uganda MEA Concerns about Negotiating with the Taliban -------------- ¶2. (C) MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran) T.C.A. Raghavan told PolCouns November 19 that the situation in Afghanistan was getting worse, lamenting that six Members of Parliament were killed November 6 north of Kabul. There was nothing wrong with intra- and inter-tribal reconciliation, Raghavan opined, but to leap to negotiation with the Taliban was a "critical area," he counseled. "You will find you are near your tipping point, like in '93, '94 and '95," warned Raghavan. PolCouns assured Raghavan that USG and Indian interests converged on a stable Afghanistan. President Karzai should rethink his plan to talk to the Taliban, Raghavan contended, suggesting that it gave the impression that "Karzai is bigger than he is." Referring to Pakistan's South Waziristan agreement with the Nek Mohammed-led Pakistani Taliban, Raghavan enounced that Pakistan had already tried in 2004 to forge an agreement with the Taliban, and that it had not worked (NFI). ¶3. (C) PolCouns asked Raghavan for information on National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan's under the radar visit to Kabul in early October, where he reportedly went to get a firsthand appraisal of the Taliban resurgence. Raghavan responded that it had been a "private" trip, and that Narayanan was on his own except for a member of the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) (Raghavan did not know who). Narayanan's counterpart, Zalmay Rassoul, had invited Narayanan to visit Afghanistan, and the Indian Ambassador in Afghanistan had supported the visit, Raghavan said. Though he clarified that he did not know the details of Narayanan's visit, Raghavan speculated that Narayanan had discussed the Taliban. PM Singh Uses ASEAN to Urge Burma to Expedite the Reconciliation Process -------------- ¶4. (C) Indian media sources report that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met with Burmese junta leader Thein Sein on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit on 20 November and emphasized India's position that the reconciliation process in Burma needed to be broad-based, include Aung Sang Suu Kyi and ethnic minority groups, and be "carried forward expeditiously towards a satisfactory conclusion." Singh reiterated India's support for the efforts of UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari on behalf of the international NEW DELHI 00005047 002.2 OF 004 community. Comment: Although the statement reflected nothing new in India's position, it was noteworthy in that it was the first the PM has personally urged the Burmese to take reconciliation seriously. End comment. ¶5. (C) On the margins of ASEAN was the third East Asia Summit, which included ASEAN plus South Korea, China, Japan and India. Singaporean First Secretary Edgar Pang speculated to PolOff November 19 that Russia would make a strong pitch to be included in the East Asia summit, and that India was expected to voice support for Russia,s inclusion. Poloff opined that India was probably hoping that Russia would counterbalance China at the summit, to India,s favor. Pang expressed skepticism that Russia could bring much to the table and questioned the appropriateness of inviting it into an Asian-centric conference. ¶6. (C) Although analysts did not expect much headway on India's entry into an ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA),PM Singh pushed for India's "10 6" vision of ASEAN (the original 10 members plus India, China, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand) against China's suggestion of 10 3 (China, South Korea, and Japan). In addition, embassy sources indicated that India was planning to announce new measures for increased cooperation with ASEAN in the fields of Information and Communication Technology and health, expanded people-to-people contacts, and human resource development. Renowned journalist C. Raja Mohan reported in the November 20 issue of "The Indian Express" that India would use the forum to reiterate its cultural linkages with Southeast Asia by taking a gentler and more nuanced approach than its pre-1990's ham-handed assertions that it was the "mother of all civilizations in Asia," which didn't play well with the rest of Asia. Instead, India will continue to focus on promoting Buddhist cultural links and projecting soft power by offering to share the bounty of its emerging strengths in the technology and education sectors. Three Arrested for Scheming to Kidnap Rahul Gandhi and Others -------------- ¶7. (U) The Special Task Force arrested three men alleged to be members of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) in Lucknow on November ¶16. Police claim they were plotting to kidnap VIPs, including Rahul Gandhi, in order to pressure the government to release 42 jailed terrorists and open talks on independence for Kashmir. The three men reportedly confessed to having been trained in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Their plan was to obtain jobs as cleaners in political party offices in order to gain access to their targets. ¶8. (U) Two of the prisoners the three hoped to have released were reportedly Afzal Guru and Jusuf Nepali, who were convicted for the JeM December 2001 bombing of the Indian Parliament building. Jaish-e-Mohammed was founded by Maulana Masood Azhar in 2000, who himself was released from prison in 1999 in exchange for passengers of a hijacked Indian Airlines flight. Rahul Continues His Ascent -------------- ¶9. (U) Rahul Gandhi was the star of the show at the All India Congress Committee (AICC) session in Delhi over the weekend. In one of Rahul,s first major outings following NEW DELHI 00005047 003.2 OF 004 his October appointment as AICC General Secretary (reftel), and in the absence of any real policies or principles other than perpetration of the Nehru Dynasty, the Congress Party made a major effort to ensure that the message emanating from the convention is clear: Rahul Gandhi Zindabad! (Long Live Rahul Gandhi!). ¶10. (U) In speech after speech, Congress party elders, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, painted Rahul as the ordained leader of the Congress party and expressed confidence that he would lead the party and then the nation to greatness through his appeal to the youth of India. Sonia Gandhi, too, acknowledged the dynastic inevitability when she exhorted the party cadre: "Neither Rahul nor I have the magic wand. What has to happen has to be with the cooperation of all of you." ¶11. (U) Rahul was eventually coaxed to the microphone by the cheering crowd and, alternating between Hindi and English in his brief remarks, he highlighted the importance of technology and India's youth in bringing about change in the nation. The only other point he made was a call for merit-based advancement within the party, adding: "It is our duty to ensure that their (i.e., party workers) progress is linked to their performance." While he himself and the doting crowd appear to have missed it, the irony of Rahul's call for a meritocracy within the party was not lost on journalists and political observers. The Other Election: Himachal Pradesh -------------- ¶12. (U) Media attention has focused in recent weeks on the Gujarat state assembly elections in mid-December, where the Congress Party is trying to unseat the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) Hindutva icon Narendra Modi. This spotlight on Gujarat has overshadowed another state campaign underway, in the northern mountain state of Himachal Pradesh. Three remote tribal constituencies in Himachal already went to the polls on November 14 because weather conditions make it difficult to campaign and conduct elections in December. The remaining 65 seats will be decided on December 19 with all results announced on December 28. Intense electioneering in the tribal areas is likely to be revved up further during the campaign for the remaining seats. ¶13. (U) According to analysts, the BJP, riding a wave of anti-incumbency, is poised to oust the ruling Congress government. Infighting and charges of corruption are also dragging the Congress down. But it is Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati,s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) that has injected some spark and uncertainty in the polls. Himachal, like Gujarat, has traditionally been a two-party state in which the Congress and the BJP generally alternate terms in power. Fresh from her success in the UP elections earlier this year, Mayawati has made a concerted effort to build a presence in Himachal. The BSP recruited upper caste ex-Congress Minister Vijay Singh Mankotia as its Chief Minister candidate and plans to contest all 68 seats in the state. It hopes to put together the same winning Dalit-upper caste combination it employed in Uttar Pradesh. Dalits make up approximately 27 percent of the population in Himachal and have traditionally voted Congress. The BSP hopes to cut into that vote bank as well as pocket upper caste votes of people disenchanted with both the Congress and the BJP. It is NEW DELHI 00005047 004.2 OF 004 unlikely that the BSP will win many seats outright, but it may get enough share of the vote to affect the results in many constituencies. How well the BSP's message travels could have implications well beyond the rugged hills of Himachal Pradesh. Prime Minister Singh to Attend the CHOGM Summit in Uganda -------------- ¶14. (U) Prime Minister Singh will leave for Kampala November 22 to attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government (CHOGM) summit, returning on November 25. Indian media is abuzz with speculation that the leaders of Commonwealth nations will suspend Pakistan from CHOGM, in light of the recent anti-democratic crackdowns committed by General Musharraf. Indian leaders are refusing to be drawn into any controversy over Pakistan, keeping in line with their cautious appraisal of the unfolding crisis within their northern nemesis. New Delhi is pushing for its candidate, High Commissioner (UK) Kamlesh Sharma, to become the new Commonwealth Secretary General. MULFORD