ABRIDGED WINTER SESSION OF PARLIAMENT DUE TO KEY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 004835 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN SUBJECT: ABRIDGED WINTER SESSION OF PARLIAMENT DUE TO KEY ELECTIONS IN GUJARAT, HIMACHAL PRADESH REF: A) MUMBAI 604 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The upcoming winter session of Parliament is likely to start a week sooner (on November 15) and run shorter than in previous years. The condensed schedule would allow party leaders a few days of full-scale campaigning for state assembly elections in Gujarat on December 11 and 16 and Himachal Pradesh on December 16. The US-India civil nuclear initiative is likely to dominate Parliamentary discussions during the session (septel). The two state elections will be straight contests between the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since other parties have virtually no presence in either state. Both parties attach considerable importance to these elections as snapshot indicators of their national appeal as well as for the momentum they hope to derive in the run-up to Parliamentary elections before mid-2009. At this point, the BJP is comfortably positioned to oust the Congress from power in Himachal. The contest appears to be closer in Gujarat, where BJP's Narendra Modi has a narrow edge in his attempt to retain power for a record third consecutive term for him and fifth straight time for the BJP. A better than expected result for the Congress party, especially in Gujarat, would embolden it to confront more aggressively the Left parties (and its UPA allies),if IAEA talks are still stalled in December. End Summary BJP, Congress Agree on Timing -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Normally the winter session begins the third week of November and runs to Christmas. Under the proposed revised schedule recommended by the Cabinet Committee on Parliamentary Affairs#and expected to be confirmed by the Cabinet soon, the winter session would begin the week of November 15 and end on December 7. The UPA proposal to shift the session schedule has the support of the opposition BJP, which also is eager to have its national leaders join the campaigning in Gujarat and Himachal. The Left parties, which have neither presence nor prospects in either state, criticized the proposed revision of the Parliamentary calendar as a dilution of democratic processes. Agreement between the Congress Party and the BJP on any issue is rare in the current political environment in India. Their convergence on the timing of the winter session reflects the enormous importance the Congress Party and the BJP place on both state elections. BJP v Congress Party: Head to Head -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In both states, the elections will be a straight contest between the Congress Party and the BJP as third parties have virtually no following in either state. While local factors play a dominant role in state elections, the performance of the two parties in Gujarat and Himachal would provide a good snapshot indicator of their national strength. A strong showing by either party in these elections would provide it momentum in the run-up to Parliamentary elections before mid-2009. Gujarat is a more crucial battleground for both parties, not only because it has 26 seats in Parliament (compared to four for Himachal) but also because of the Hindu-Muslim dynamic, which has intensified since Chief Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2001. Gujarat is also a "bellwether" Indian state that is leading the Indian economic resurgence. At this point, five-six weeks before the elections, the BJP is ahead in both states. Himachal: BJP Comfortably Positioned -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Congress Party, which ousted the BJP in Himachal Pradesh in 2003 with a clear majority, is on the back foot today in the state. It is expected to suffer from a strong anti-incumbency vote. Infighting, defections, charges of rampant corruption in government, and a water shortage in the capital, Shimla, have also weakened its prospects. The betting appears to be on how far the Congress Party will fall in the elections. Gujarat: BJP Has Narrow Edge -------------- NEW DELHI 00004835 002 OF 002 ¶5. (SBU) In Gujarat, where Narendra Modi is vying for his third consecutive term in office, anti-incumbency will work against the BJP. It may not be a decisive factor, however, because Narendra Modi's reputation as an able administrator and the architect of Gujarat's impressive economic development, combined with a weak Congress Party organization in the state, appears to be outweighing the anti-incumbency drag. Most pundits have the BJP narrowly ahead at this time (Ref A). ¶6. (SBU) A wild card will be the communal and caste undertones which are always a factor in Gujarat but have become even more prominent since Modi rode the aftermath of the 2002 riots to further power. A recent story by a newsmagazine about Modi's role in condoning the riots has been getting front page attention in the print and electronic news media in Delhi (septel). Congress Party allies like Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav have seized on the assertions and demanded Modi's dismissal. Many observers believe that the more the election becomes about Modi and his role in the riots, the better his chances to retain power because such focus strengthens his anti-Muslim, Hindu nationalism credentials, consolidates the right wing Hindu vote in the state and serves to intimidate the Muslim minority from enthusiastically participating in the electoral process. Indeed, as a sign of this, the Gujarat unit of the Congress Party has remained silent about the allegations; while the Congress can count on the Muslim vote in the state, state party leaders would not want to alienate Hindu voters who can turn the tide against the BJP. Comment: BJP Hopes to Keep Win Streak Going -------------- ¶7. (SBU) For the BJP, winning the two states would add to a string of solid victories it and/or its allies have rung up in the last two years -- Bihar, Punjab and Uttarkhand. It would also allow the party to push under the rug its poor performance in the Uttar Pradesh elections in May 2007 as an anomaly driven by unique local factors. The BJP has been racked by infighting, leadership and ideological battles, and organizational ineptitude since its loss in the 2004 parliamentary elections. Strong performances in Himachal and Gujarat would give the party confidence that its internal disorder has not affected the appeal of its message in those states and, pssobly, nationawide. Comment: Congress Hopes to Exceed Expectations -------------- - ¶8. (SBU) Were the Congress to fare better than expected in Gujarat and Himachal, it would become emboldened to confront more aggressively its UPA allies and the Left parties as they attempt to influence UPA policy for their narrow interests. In particular, the Congress Party will push more forcefully for the US-India civil nuclear agreement (if the IAEA talks are still stalled) and will be more willing to risk early Parliamentary elections. A strong showing by the Congress Party in Gujarat against the BJP's Narendra Modi, the poster boy of right-wing anti-Muslim Hindu nationalist ideology, would also enhance the appeal of the Congress Party to the Muslim community around the country in the run up to Parliamentary elections before mid-2009. MULFORD