DELHI DIARY, OCT 5-12

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 004597

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ELTN MOPS MARR ENRG EPET BG SN SF
RS, NI, IN
SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, OCT 5-12


Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from
Embassy New Delhi for October 5-12, 2007 that did not feature
in our other reporting, including:

-- FM Mukherjee Visiting Moscow
-- India Put the Brakes on Rail Service to Dhaka
-- Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Trip to Africa
-- Singapore's Air Force to Train in West Bengal
-- First India-China Joint Army Exercises Delayed
-- Gujjars Call Off Protest Movement for Now
-- Mayawati Continues to Pull in the Crowds

FM Mukherjee Visiting Moscow
--------------


2. (C) Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee is in Moscow
October 11-13 to attend the 13th annual India-Russia Inter
Governmental Commission (IRIGC). This is the third
high-level India visitor to Russia in the past three months,
after National Security Advisor Narayanan,s August visit and
Army Chief JJ Singh,s September visit. Mukherjee will be
followed by Defense Minister A.K. Antony October 22, and
Prime Minister Singh, who will visit Moscow sometime in
December. Indo-Russian affairs analyst Dr. Gulshan Sachdeva
enjoined PolOff October 11 not to read too much into the
flurry of high-level visits from India, noting that there
have been hundreds of such visits between the two countries
since 1991, with little effect.


3. (U) Representatives from the India Ministries of Finance,
Petroleum and Gas, Steel, Science and Technology will
accompany Mukherjee on this visit, attending their respective
working group meetings under the IRIGC umbrella.


4. (C) COMMENT: We predict a laundry list of
impressive-sounding "agreements" will be proclaimed
simultaneously by the Foreign Ministries of both India and
Russia in the wake of Mukherjee,s visit, as happened after
Putin,s last visit to India (ref NEW DELHI 440),but our
contacts and recent experience tell us this will be mostly
hot air and little substance. We may find out some new
details on India,s investments in the Sakhalin oil fields.
END COMMENT.

India Put the Brakes on Rail Service to Dhaka
--------------


5. (C) Indian press reported that the GOI has adopted a "go
slow" approach to the opening of a passenger rail service
between Kolkata's Sealdah Railway Station and Joydevpur in
Dhaka. The "Indian Express" noted that Railway and External
Affairs ministries met with their Bangladeshi counterparts in
Delhi on October 8, but refused to discuss the inauguration
of the passenger train. The article quoted a Railway
Ministry official as stating that, "Running a train on the
route is not an issue here. However, a political decision is
yet to be taken." Citing unnamed sources, the newspaper
reported that the UPA government has ordered the Railway
Ministry to refrain from discussing passenger service
modalities with the Government of Bangladesh, as it remains
concerned about "the rising rate of infiltration from
Bangladesh and the political situation there." The article
related that fencing issues and Customs and Immigration
facilities remain logistical stumbling blocks. Ministry of
External Affairs Joint Secretary (Bangladesh) Mohan Kumar
noted the same obstacles during his farewell meeting with
PolCouns in September but forecast that the service would
commence later that month.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Trip to Africa
--------------


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6. (SBU) The October 10 issue of "The Hindu" reported that
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will attend the second annual
IBSA Summit (India-Brazil-South Africa) hosted by South
African President Mbeki on 17 October. The Ministry of
External Affairs Latin America desk confirms that
coordination on UN reform and the Doha Round will figure high
on the agenda as well as connectivity between the three
nations. Prime Minister Singh will also visit Nigeria,
India's largest trading partner in Africa, on 14-16 October.
Singh's Nigeria visit will focus on investment opportunities
in the oil refinery, steel, and telecom sectors. Singh is
the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Nigeria since
Jawaharlal Nehru in 1962.

India to Allow Singapore's Air Force to Train in West Bengal
--------------


7. (C) Indian media covered the 9 October signing of a
five-year defense deal between India and Singapore allowing
the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) to use the
Kalaikunda airbase in West Bengal for flight training.
Although the airbase has been used extensively in
India-Singapore joint exercises, this is the first long-term
arrangement between the two air forces. Embassy contacts
report that the deal will allow Singapore, plagued by lack of
airspace, to exercise up to its full potential. India will
benefit from getting to train with the RSAF's F-16 Fighting
Falcon, the same aircraft used by the Pakistani air force.
The Indian Express reported that the agreement, which
includes cash payments and possible facility upgrades, is the
start of a comprehensive defense cooperation program between
the two countries that will cover all three branches of the
armed services.

First India-China Joint Army Exercises Delayed
--------------


8. (SBU) China postponed the first ever India-China army
exercise to be held in November, according to media sources.
Former Chairman of the Chief of Staff Committee (COSC)
General J.J. Singh's May 2007 China visit had paved the way
for the anti-terror exercise, with both sides announcing in
August that the drill would take place in Chengdu. Embassy
sources noted at that time that the exercise would involve
approximately sixty troops from each sideand last for two
weeks. However, the October 9 issue of the "Indian Express"
cited sources as stating that China cancelled an Indian
planning team's visit to China to finalize the details
regarding the exercise. The article quoted an Indian
official as stating that, "We were surprised when they pulled
out at the last moment," and asserted that China called for
the date and venue to be discussed further at the Annual
Defense Dialogue (ADD) between the two countries. The ADD is
scheduled to meet in China later this month. Media sources
report that India's request that the joint exercise be
de-linked from the ADD was rejected by China.

Gujjars Call Off Protest Movement for Now
--------------


9. (U) After nine days of protests, Gujjar leaders
demanding scheduled caste status for their people called off
their agitation movement on October 10 and agreed to set up a
joint committee with the Rajasthan government to discuss
their demands. Protests had grown more destructive over the
weekend despite the Rajasthan government,s arrest on October
2 of thousands of Gujjars, who blocked rail service along the
busy Delhi-Mumbai spur by removing a 250-meter section of the
track and held up a cargo train in separate parts of
Rajasthan, according to press sources. The Bharatiya Janata
Party-led state government was forced to bring in Gujjar
leader Kirori Singh Bainsla * who was arrested on October 2
* to resolve the issue, allowing authorities to rebuild the
tracks after 21 hours. On October 10, however, Bainsla

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announced an end to the protest movement, following the
decision by Gujjar leaders and the Rajasthan government to
hold joint meetings to address the main Gujjar demands -
including Jaipur,s support in lobbying New Delhi to classify
the Gujjars as tribals, the withdrawal of criminal cases
against Gujjars, and compensation to the families of Gujjars
killed during the protest movement. Over 60,000 Gujjars that
had been held in jail for protesting were set to be released,
according to press reports.


10. (C) Comment: The Rajasthan government appears to have
bought itself breathing space in dealing with this ethnic
problem, but until the central issue of the Gujjars' desire
for tribal status is resolved the issue has the potential to
escalate again. As India and the various political parties
seem to be preparing for the prospect of Lok Sabha elections
in 2008, and given the BJP,s relative weakness nationally,
the Gujjar issue could become a political football between
the local, more emboldened Congress Party - whose MPs have
joined the protests and probably would like to see the issue
continue to embarrass the state government - and the BJP,
which will be keen to negotiate a lasting resolution and
thereby bolster its electoral standing in the state.

Mayawati Continues to Pull in the Crowds
--------------


11. (U) On October 9, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) President Mayawati launched into
campaign mode with an eye on the national stage with a huge
party rally in Lucknow. At the rally - which many observers
estimate drew a crowd of up to 1.5 million people - Mayawati
warned the crowd about the dangers of &money, mafia, media,
and middlemen8 and rebuffed various allegations of
corruption against her as false propaganda by political
rivals unnerved by her party,s growing popularity and
influence. She reserved much of the speech for national
issues, including a prediction that the United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) government would not be able to find a
political consensus on the civilian nuclear agreement with
the United States. She implored her supporters to prepare
for early Lok Sabha elections, which many expect sometime in

2008.


12. (C) Comment: There is little doubt that Mayawati *
whose sole guiding ideology seems to be increasing her
political power and base under the guise of populist,
pro-Dalit rhetoric * is a growing political force that
cannot be ignored. Even though she has been Chief Minister
for less than six months, she already has her sights on the
national stage. State elections in Gujarat later this year
* where she reportedly has put much effort into bolstering
the BSP,s standing * will be a good barometer of just how
national a figure she has become. End Comment.
MULFORD