NUCLEAR DEAL REACTION: LOTS OF NOISE, SOME HURT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003691 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR NNSA WILL TOBEY, ADAM SCHEINMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2017 TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN SUBJECT: NUCLEAR DEAL REACTION: LOTS OF NOISE, SOME HURT FEELINGS, BUT DEAL EXPECTED TO STAND APPROVED REF: NEW DELHI 3633 Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary. Opposition parties loudly shouted protest slogans during Prime Minister Singh's August 13 suo moto speech in the lower house on the civil-nuclear agreement, and the reaction is expected to grow more boisterous as parliamentary debate continues the week of August 20. The Congress Party-led government's Communist coalition partner has been politically cornered into either having to back down from its opposition to the deal or fall on its sword over it and bring the government down. However, Embassy contacts believe nothing will stand in the way of the agreement's ultimate acceptance in India. End Summary. Noisy Kabuki During PM's Speech In Parliament -------------- ¶2. (U) The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led opposition to Prime Minister Singh's suo moto speech in the lower house of parliament on August 13 was raucous and loud, with members shouting slogans throughout the Prime Minister's twenty-five minute presentation. Unperturbed, PM Singh delivered his prepared address without interruption, giving an objective presentation of the elements of the civil-nuclear deal and the 123 Agreement, defending India's claim to sovereignty and maintaining India had secured key elements of the negotiations, such as reprocessing rights, while reiterating India's nonproliferation commitments. The event played out as scripted, with the opposition creating a sense of organized chaos while nothing prevented the proceedings from taking place. In the upper house later in the afternoon, however, PM Singh refused to continue with his speech when confronted again with a rowdy protest from the opposition, choosing instead to lay his speech before the body. Debate on the agreement, which was to have begun on August 14, has been postponed until at least August 20, ostensibly to allow Parliament to deal with the floods which have taken place in various places in India. PM Puts Coalition Partner In Corner -------------- ¶3. (C) Noticeably absent from the Prime Minister's speech, however, was UPA coalition partner Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M),who had chosen to boycott the session. Indian media is consumed by the dilemma facing CPI-M, whose ardent opposition to the deal is well known, yet who was challenged by the Prime Minister to withdraw support for the government if it could not accept the nuclear deal. The Left's bluff called, public reaction is rife with speculation over how it will now react: does it appear toothless and back down from its opposition, or side with the despised BJP and move to take away the government's majority in managing the deal? Embassy insider contacts, such as CPI-M insider Sitaram Yechury (reftel),believe both the Left and the BJP will stage dramatic protests for public consumption, however nothing will prevent the civil-nuclear deal from ultimately being accepted. CPI-M's politburo plans to meet during the weekend of August 18 to discuss the situation arising out of the civ-nuke deal. Two other Members of Parliament, the BJP's Dharmendra Pradhan and Telugu Desam Party's Yerran Naidu, told the Embassy on August 14 their parties remain opposed to the deal, but admitted that unless the Left wanted to bring down the government, they did not have the numbers to stop it. Comment: No Change In Expectation Deal Will Pass -------------- ¶4. (C) Comment. The domestic debate in India continues as expected, with the media, politicians, and opinion makers clinging to their previously established support/opposition positions, while the government uses its majority to maneuver NEW DELHI 00003691 002 OF 002 the agreement through Parliament without a vote. While Post believes the Left will not bring down the government in opposition to the nuclear deal, the Left's support cannot be taken for granted -- particularly in the wake of the Prime Minister's challenge to put up or shut up -- and the Congress Party will need to do some relationship management to allow the Left a face-saving way to retain its opposition credentials. While true opposition to the civil-nuclear deal and closer U.S.-India ties exists, it is telling that a poll carried in the August 14 Indian Express revealed forty-nine percent of Indians had not heard of the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, twenty percent support it, while only ten percent oppose it. Post suspects India's MPs are aware that this is not a hot-button issue for the average Indian, and that parliamentarians will seek to score whatever political points they can by criticizing the government before moving on to other Monsoon Session business. Ultimately, assuming Congress does not push its coalition partner too far, the fact remains that this agreement does not require the approval of Parliament, so Post continues to believe the deal will remain intact. WHITE