UTTAR PRADESH MUSLIMS - DISILLUSIONED AND MORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000346 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER KDEM KISL SCUL IN IZ IR SUBJECT: UTTAR PRADESH MUSLIMS - DISILLUSIONED AND MORE DIVIDED THAN EVER REF: 06 NEW DELHI 8463 NEW DELHI 00000346 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Muslims of Uttar Pradesh (UP) are increasingly fed-up with the corruption and poor governance of the Samajwadi Party (SP) government of Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, with many ready to desert to Congress and the rival BSP. Lucknow's Shias have historic and cultural ties to Iran, but have mostly ignored political appeals from the Iranian Embassy. Their disillusionment has been further compounded by the execution of Saddam Hussain, which was welcomed by the city's Shias and condemned by most Sunnis. Iranian efforts to construct a pan-Islamic alliance between Sunni extremists and Shias have largely evaporated in the fallout from the execution. Moharram, the most sacred month for Shias, started on January 20 and will culminate in large processions on January 30. Sunni and Shia interlocutors tell us to expect outbreaks of Sunni/Shia rioting on this day. Should Mulayam fail to preserve law and order, it could provide an opening for the pro-Congress governor to dismiss the SP government and declare President's Rule. End Summary. Journey to the Heart of UP ¶2. (SBU) The ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) is currently locked in a political crisis that could end its rule, as it faces crucial elections later this year (septel). It has come to rely more than ever on its Muslim voting bloc to provide the winning edge and keep it in power. This is why the SP takes extremist and anti-US stances on foreign policy issues (Iraq, Iran, the Middle East),which have a heavy Islamic emotional resonance. On January 18-19, POL Counselor and Poloff met with key contacts in Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh (UP). They discussed the role of the Muslim community in the state's political equation with Urdu journalists, Muslim academics, Muslim community and political leaders, and a cross-section of political figures from the state's major political parties. The Growing Sunni/Shia Divide ¶3. (C) Leading Urdu journalist Zaheer Mustafa (himself a Shia) pointed out that the divide between Lucknow's Sunni and Shia Muslims has widened following the recent execution of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussain and several of his associates. Following Saddam's execution, there were celebrations and the distribution of sweets in Shia neighborhoods, while Sunni areas remained quiet. Mustafa confirmed that Sunnis were angered by the executions and the Shia celebrations, and that this could make this year's Mohharam particularly tense. This year, the crucial Mohharam processions will take place on January 30. Mustafa introduced Poloff to a Sunni Muslim who claimed that Sunnis plan to attack the Shia Mohharam processions as they move through Sunni neighborhoods and touch off sectarian rioting. Mustafa and other Shia interlocutors feared that Sunni NEW DELHI 00000346 002.2 OF 004 extremists are playing with fire, as riots, once begun, could quickly get out of hand. Mustafa also pointed out that the troubled SP government of UP has cultivated the Deobandi/Wahhabi Sunnis as a critical vote bank to retain power. These Sunni sects are virulently anti-Shia, and Mustafa wondered whether the state government would risk losing valuable political capital by moving forcefully against them to quell rioting. Congress Sees Muslims Returning ¶4. (C) UP's Congress President Salman Khursheed (a Sunni Muslim),warned us that Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav would continue to manipulate Muslim sentiments for his own political gain. Describing Mulayam as "pragmatic," Khursheed doubted that the Chief Minister was genuinely anti-American or cared much about the "Muslim issues," such as Palestine, Iraq, Iran, or Lebanon. According to Khursheed, Mulayam was simply using these issues to "alienate Muslims from Congress." Despite his profound respect for Mulayam's political manipulation skills, Khursheed was confident that Congress efforts to woo the Muslim voter are bearing fruit, and that "more Muslims are coming to Congress." The state's Congress Vice President Ashok Vajpayee adamantly maintained that Khursheed's Muslim identity and political skills were primarily responsible for convincing large numbers of Muslims to vote Congress in recent elections in Rae Barelli and Allahabad, where the party scored convincing wins against the SP (reftel). Khursheed pointed out that Muslims were once firm supporters of Congress, but had left the party for "emotional reasons." Since emotion is temporary, he argued, Muslims have begun to drift back. While the BJP Writes Them Off ¶5. (C) In a January 18 interview Kesri Nath Tripathi, the UP President of the BJP, confirmed that his party will project veteran politician Kalyan Singh as its candidate for Chief Minister in this year's election. Singh was Chief Minister of UP when BJP activists destroyed the Babri Mosque in 1992 and outraged the state's Muslims when he endorsed the demolition. Tripathi complained that the state's Muslim minority was "anti-national" and always willing to support any movement against India. He proudly boasted that the BJP is the only party in UP that does not "appease" Muslims. The BSP Counts Muslims In ¶6. (C) Brahmin leader Satish Mishra is the political organizer behind former Chief Minister Mayawati and her BSP. Many credit Mishra with expanding the BSP base beyond the Dalits. He opined that the Muslim vote remains split between various parties. While Mulayam has enlisted many Muslims into the SP, Mishra insisted that Muslims have grown disenchanted with the ruling party. As a result, they have begun switching their loyalty to the BSP, which has maintained a lock on its own Muslim base. Mishra indicated that Muslims are primarily interested in success and do not NEW DELHI 00000346 003.2 OF 004 want to throw away their vote on a losing party. With a growing consensus in UP that the SP is on its way out and that Mayawati and the BSP will return to power, Mishra argued that Muslims want to back the winner. Mayawati's statements regarding "Muslim fundamentalists" had received wide circulation and comment in the Urdu press (reftel),with some angry Muslims indicating they could no longer support the BSP. Mishra insisted that Mayawati had been deliberately misquoted by mercenary journalists, and that what she had said was that her party would not accept support from "Muslim fanatics," such as those who recently offered a reward for the heads of Danish cartoonists who allegedly produced cartoons "insulting" the prophet Muhammad. According to Mishra, Mayawati is proud of her stance, will not retract her statements and the Muslims have largely moved on. The Shias and Iran ¶7. (C) A group of intellectuals from Shia College told PolCouns and Poloff that Lucknow's Shia community was founded by Persian speaking Muslims from Iran and maintains cultural ties to that country up to the present day. They noted that Lucknow's unique cultural heritage was a mixture of Persian and Indian elements, and could be seen in the city's architecture, poetry, music, and literature. In addition, many of Lucknow's Shia Maulvis study in the Iranian seminary in Qom and pilgrims regularly travel to Iran to visit religious sites. Despite this, Lucknow Shias are 100 percent Indian and have little or no interest in Iranian political issues or appeals by the Iranian government to their religious sentiments. They confirmed that Iranian diplomats regularly visit Lucknow and meet with Shia leaders, receiving a polite reception, but little political support. Further Saddam Fallout ¶8. (C) The Shia interlocutors maintained that Shia extremists had long worked closely with "Wahhabi and Deobandi" elements to preach a pan-Islamic stance that they hoped would unite all Muslims against the US and the UPA government, and this tendency had been encouraged actively by the Iranian Embassy and its visiting diplomats. They claimed that much of this came unraveled, however, in the days following the Saddam execution. Angered by the Shia reaction to the execution, the Sunnis turned on their erstwhile Shia allies, putting up banners around the city calling for their "death." Ironically, they pointed out, the Sunnis themselves purportedly destroyed in a day a relationship they had spent years cultivating. Comment - The Muslims' Political Role is Crucial ¶9. (C) The Muslim of UP will play a crucial role in the state's current political crisis and upcoming elections that is out of proportion to their numbers. With caste dominating UP politics, most Hindus have been "locked in" to political parties by their caste membership. The Muslims are largely outside this game and are driven primarily by their hatred NEW DELHI 00000346 004.2 OF 004 for the BJP, which has taken an avowedly Hindutva (anti-Muslim) stance. Like most of the UP population, Muslims are increasingly disenchanted with the kleptocratic government of Mulayam Singh Yadav and many are likely to desert him and vote for other parties wherever possible. This migrating Muslim vote will benefit Congress and the BSP and allow them to pick up crucial seats in the upcoming election. ¶10. (C) In the end, the Muslim vote will be split primarily between the SP, BSP, and Congress. Should sufficient numbers of Muslims desert the SP, it could lead to a defeat at the polls and a change of government in India's largest state. Mulayam's determination to hold on to his Muslim vote bloc explains his support for extreme positions on Iran, Iraq, and the Middle East, and his virulent anti-US posture. This has clearly alienated the Shias, most of whom will cast their vote elsewhere. This reliance on emotional issues has worked well with many of the Sunni population, and could allow the SP to retain a large chunk of its Muslim vote, regardless of the party's falling fortunes. Should the Shias and Sunnis riot during this month's Mohharam processions, the pro-Congress governor could use it as an excuse to dismiss the UP government and declare President's Rule, especially if the state-controlled police forces fail to maintain law and order and paramilitaries controlled by New Delhi have to be deployed. ¶11. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) MULFORD