INDIAN NSA NARAYANAN UPBEAT ON PAKISTAN, CAUTIOUS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000343 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN, AF SUBJECT: INDIAN NSA NARAYANAN UPBEAT ON PAKISTAN, CAUTIOUS ON AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ NEW DELHI 00000343 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford, Reason 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. (S) Summary: National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan expressed optimism about the general trajectory of talks with Pakistan during a January 22nd meeting with Ambassador Mulford, although he said Prime Minister Singh was unlikely to schedule a trip to Islamabad before the SAARC summit in April. Narayanan praised Kashmiri separatist Mirwaiz Omar Farooq's January 20th statements condemning terrorism and promoting a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute. Narayanan also commented on Afghanistan and Iraq, pressing the US to stay the course in both countries and remain supportive of Karzai's position. End Summary. PM Won't Go to Pakistan Before SAARC -------------- ¶2. (S) National Security Advisor Narayanan told the Ambassador that Prime Minister Singh will probably not go to Pakistan before the April SAARC summit in New Delhi. If the Prime Minister goes to Islamabad, Narayanan explained, the trip has to be substantive. If the trip is not commensurate with expectations, he remarked, it will be a let down. He commented, however, that Kasuri may be "overreaching" in his optimism about how well the peace talks are progressing. India and Pakistan, he said, are not "two turns of a screwdriver" away from resolving their differences. That said, he explained, things are progressing at a comfortable rate. Praising the Mirwaiz -------------- ¶3. (S) Narayanan praised statements on January 20th by All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) leader Mirwaiz Omar Farooq in Pakistan in favor of the peace process. Narayanan commented that if the Mirwaiz honors his statements, there can be advances in the peace process. Prime Minister Singh, he said, has underscored that if he is reasonably sure that violence levels are down, it sets the stage for moving forward. This has not happened yet, he cautioned. There was the recent "sticky situation" in Goa, as well as some terrorist arrests in the South. The violence may be down in Kashmir, he said, but it has not subsided elsewhere. If there is an "honesty of purpose," he said, we can move forward. Otherwise, he said, things will be different. We don't know, he commented, how far Musharraf will be able to go with his current constituency. Reasonable peace, he said, will be the greatest CBM. The Prime Minister's offer of a Treaty of Friendship with Pakistan, he promised, is genuine. Concern About Afghanistan -------------- ¶4. (S) Turning to Afghanistan, Narayanan commented that India seeks to shore up Karzai's position. Afghanistan and Iraq, he said, will settle the fate of the civilized world. (Note: India recently added $100 million to its pledge of $650 million for Afghan reconstruction. End Note.) If we lose Afghanistan, he said, it will be as catastrophic as if we lose Iraq. It is good that the US will stay the course in both, he commented. Ambassador reinforced our continuing NEW DELHI 00000343 002.4 OF 002 commitment to bring stability to both Afghanistan and Iraq. Preventing Another Tragedy -------------- ¶5. (S) Comment: Narayanan's willingness to praise Mirwaiz Omar Farooq's statements highlights the extent to which the Kashmiri moderate has stuck his neck out to promote a peaceful resolution to the Kashmir dispute. Senior FSN Kailash Jha, who has watched the Kashmir conflict since the late 1980's, expressed today his serious concern about signals he has seen recently that terrorists may attempt to assassinate Mirwaiz Omar Farooq. The January 15th attack on the Mirwaiz's house, the January 20th statements by the United Jihad Council condemning the Mirwaiz's efforts in Islamabad, and recent protests in the Mirwaiz's own neighborhood against his trip to Pakistan are strong indicators that terrorists may target the Mirwaiz. Jha also points out that moderate Kashmiri separatist Abdul Gani Lone was killed by Pakistan-based terrorists soon after his 2002 trip to Islamabad. Terrorists also killed the Mirwaiz's uncle and father in years past. Mirwaiz Omar Farooq and his American wife, Sheeba Masoodi, live constantly under the Indian government's security protection, similar to the rest of the Kashmiri moderate separatist leaders, regardless of their affiliation. In that sense, there is little else India can do to protect him. Mirwaiz Omar Farooq's death would be a serious blow to the peace process because it would create a power vacuum among moderate separatists in the Srinagar Valley and strengthen hardline leaders like Sayeed Ali Shah Geelani who have rejected a soft borders/autonomy solution to the conflict. Now may be the right time to send a strong message through Islamabad to the United Jihad Council, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hizbul Mujahideen, and their ilk that an assassination attempt on the Mirwaiz by groups based in Pakistan cannot be tolerated. MULFORD