BJP DOWNPLAYS IMPORTANCE OF FOREIGN POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000342 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PREF PINR PTER KDEM IN PK BT BG, NP, CE SUBJECT: BJP DOWNPLAYS IMPORTANCE OF FOREIGN POLICY BRIEFING - OPPOSES UPA INITIATIVES REF: NEW DELHI 210 Classified By: PolMinCouns Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The UPA's January 3 luncheon meeting with the BJP leadership proved to be largely a flash in the pan. Subsequent events and statements by BJP insiders confirm that little of substance took place at the meeting, which consisted primarily of a briefing by Minister of External Affairs Pranab Mukherjee. Within two weeks of the meeting, the BJP reverted to form, issuing a scathing denunciation of Mukherjee's January 13/14 visit to Islamabad, and asserting that Mukherjee's "silence" on terrorism had "shocked the nation." Privately, one BJP spokesman has asserted to us that Kashmir is off the table as far as his party is concerned, and that only the status of "Pakistan Occupied Kashmir" is subject to negotiation. The luncheon meeting had spurred speculation that perhaps the Prime Minister hoped to enlist the BJP into a dramatic attempt to move forward on Kashmir, based on Pervez Musharraf's recent proposals, but the BJP has demonstrated once again that it is perfectly content with the status quo and is not interested in any softening of its harsh stance on India/Pakistan relations. End Summary. The PM Invites the BJP to Lunch -------------- ¶2. (U) Former Prime Minister AB Vajpayee has complained often to the current PM, Manmohan Singh, that the UPA government is not taking the opposition into confidence. PM Singh moved to break the ice, first attending Vajpayee's 82nd birthday celebration, and then inviting the BJP leadership for lunch. On January 2, Vajpayee, accompanied by opposition leader LK Advani, former Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh and former NSA Brajesh Mishra, had lunch with the Prime Minister at his residence and listened to a briefing on foreign policy presented by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee. Also present were NSA MK Narayanan and Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon. ¶3. (U) Although the BJP had little to say publicly about the lunch, press reports indicated that FM Mukherjee presented a briefing on UPA policy in the South Asia region, to include Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan. Although PM Singh purportedly asked the BJP leaders to share their ideas on regional issues, they were purportedly not very forthcoming, with one report stating that "it was mostly a one-way affair." The meeting fostered considerable speculation in the press as to whether the UPA leaders urged the BJP to be more open-minded regarding recent proposals to solve the Kashmir dispute put forth by General Musharraf. US/India relations were not mentioned. BJP Reverts to Form -------------- ¶4. (U) On January 15, the BJP issued a scathing denunciation of FM Mukherjee's January 13-14 visit to Pakistan. Party spokesman Ravishankar Prasad caustically noted that, "the silence of Mukherjee on terrorism, wrecking havoc against NEW DELHI 00000342 002 OF 004 India, has left the nation shocked." Insisting that the principal issue between India and Pakistan is the "containment of cross-border terrorism," Prasad demanded that the UPA formally brief the opposition parties on what the UPA had accomplished in this regard during the Islamabad visit. Prasad inferred that Mukherjee was remaining silent on Pakistani support to cross-border terrorism because Congress did not want to alienate the Muslim voters prior to crucial upcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh (UP). He also expressed dismay on what he said were contradictory statements on the India/Pakistan border, saying "Mukherjee said in Islamabad that the borders were not negotiable, while Prime Minister Singh said in Amritsar that the borders were irrelevant." Prasad concluded by stating that the BJP was not in favor of "normalizing" relations with Pakistan until it curtailed its support of cross-border terrorism, which he described as "the most important confidence building measure." Downplaying the Lunch -------------- ¶5. (C) In a January 16 meeting with Poloff, another BJP spokesman, Prakash Javadekar, downplayed the importance of the January 3 luncheon meeting with the Prime Minister and reiterated the BJP's strong criticism of all aspects of the UPA's foreign policy, especially as it relates to Pakistan. He pointed out that the previous BJP/NDA government consulted regularly with Congress, which was then in opposition, holding some 30 formal meetings during its six years in power, during which all aspects of governing were discussed, including economics, foreign policy and social concerns. Javadekar made it clear that the BJP was not impressed that in over two years of UPA rule the Prime Minister has provided only one formal briefing to the BJP. He described the lunch as an "informal meeting" at which nothing pertaining to India/US relations was discussed, and emphasized that nothing, other than a briefing on regional policy, took place. He dismissed the lunch as little more than a "gesture," and stated that it is the duty of any Indian government to provide regular briefings to the opposition. Javadekar also confirmed that the BJP was disappointed that the Prime Minister made no mention of future meetings. A Grim Regional Assessment -------------- ¶6. (C) Javadekar confirmed press reports that FM Mukherjee in his briefings outlined UPA policies on Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Burma, Nepal and Pakistan. He noted that the BJP had a grim view of developments in all these countries. Pointing out that India was located in an "unstable region," Javadekar derided the UPA for "not being proactive enough." The BJP wants to help India's neighbors resolve their problems and wants to ensure that no "third power" is dragged in to mediate regional disputes, he asserted. ¶7. (C) Javadekar maintained that the UPA's Nepal policy is not going well as "the Maoists are not surrendering their arms." He claimed that the UPA government was "doing nothing" in Nepal and could not take credit for ending the insurgency, as all the groundwork was performed by the NEW DELHI 00000342 003 OF 004 Communists who "are not part of the UPA." Likewise, he pointed out, the Bhutan government has turned thousands of its citizens into refugees and new flows could be stimulated at any time. On Sri Lanka, Javadekar maintained that since Congress military intervention there was a bloody failure, the party was loathe to be proactive and the UPA is content to be a "mute spectator." India needs to take action to ensure that Tamils in Sri Lanka are "protected," he asserted, without having to resort to a military intervention. Javadekar maintained that as the leading state in the region, India could bring a lot of pressure to bear on the Sri Lankan government to compel it to hold substantive negotiations with the LTTE. He was adamant that the BJP would never support the creation of a "Tamil Eelam" out of Sri Lanka, as it would not ask any of India's neighbors to sacrifice "territorial integrity," "When we have declared that India will not sacrifice one inch of her territory, how can we ask our neighbors to give up land?" he asked rhetorically. Maintaining a Hard Anti-Pakistan Line -------------- ¶8. (C) Javadekar emphasized that the BJP wants India to have good relations with all its neighbors, including Pakistan, but does not want the India/Pakistan relationship to be "Kashmir-centric." He pointed out that during the previous BJP/NDA government, cross-border terrorism was the number one issue between India and Pakistan. Since then, he asserted, the UPA has "fallen into Pakistan's trap" and has now made Kashmir the central point of the relationship. He was adamant that if the BJP returns to power, it would change course and make it clear to Pakistan that the status of Kashmir has already been permanently decided and is not up for discussion. For the BJP, he asserted, the only subjects for discussion would be the status of that portion of Kashmir currently "occupied" by Pakistan, and a permanent halt to Pakistani support for cross-border terrorism. There are no other issues that need concern Pakistan, he maintained. Comment - No Change in the Status Quo -------------- ¶9. (C) The PM's lunch invitation to the BJP leadership touched off a wave of speculation in the press and among the political watchers that perhaps some big initiative was in the works. Several newspapers speculated that perhaps the UPA was intent on enlisting the BJP into a dramatic forward movement on Kashmir. Subsequent events and our interaction with BJP insiders indicates that this was not the case. It now appears that Congress decided to make a friendly overture to try to smooth ruffled BJP feathers, which was dismissed by the BJP as little more than a gesture. Within days of the lunch, the BJP quickly reverted to form, retaining its hard line on Pakistan, dismissing Musharraf's proposals on Kashmir, and reiterating its insistence that Pakistan be held to account for its support of terrorism. There is no indication that Congress was pleased with the luncheon or plans to hold further meetings with the opposition. So far, it has remained silent on the BJP "demand" that it brief the opposition parties on the outcome of Mukherjee's Islamabad viit. NEW DELHI 00000342 004 OF 004 ¶10. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) MULFORD