U.N. ADVISOR ON BURMA ENCOURAGES INDIA TO PROMOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003318 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2017 TAGS: PREL KDEM MARR MASS PGOV PHUM BM IN SUBJECT: U.N. ADVISOR ON BURMA ENCOURAGES INDIA TO PROMOTE DEMOCRACY REF: A. BEIJING 4603 ¶B. IIR 6 844 0752 07 Classified By: Acting PolCouns Atul Keshap for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The UN Secretary General's Special Advisor on Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, met with Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon during a July 10-12 visit to New Delhi. According to the MEA, Gambari recognized India's ability to influence Burma, and expressed modest optimism for future collaboration, telling Menon that India could "do something" to promote democracy in Burma. Meanwhile, a report issued by European NGOs warned of India's impending sale of attack helicopters to Burma that include components and technology originating from the European Union (EU). NGOs claim such a sale would be a violation in sprit, if not in letter, of end-use agreements for military hardware between India and the EU, given the EU's arms embargo against Burma. India is unlikely to reduce its engagement with Burma due to its realpolitik calculus that such ties reduce the junta's dependence on Beijing, and induce the regime to provide essential support to India's counter-insurgency operations in the North East. END SUMMARY -------------- UN Enlists India for Burmese Democratization -------------- ¶2. (C) The UN Secretary General's Special Advisor on Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, briefed MEA Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon July 12 on the UN's mission and the democratic process in Burma, MEA Under Secretary for Burma Pratibha Parkar told PolOff July 13. According to Parkar, Gambari told Menon that India "could do something" to promote democracy in Burma, noting that the US Government (USG) was interested in "pressing Burma towards democracy," and suggested that India could assist the US in that endeavor. Menon had concurred with Gambari's views, Parkar stated. ¶3. (U) Gambari stated to the press on July 13 that "we urge (the Government of India (GOI)) to encourage the authorities in (Burma) to build on the positive steps they are making ... (and) send positive messages to reinforce those tentative steps." Gambari reportedly described Menon as "very, very, constructive, very free, very open, very candid," and told the media that "the (GOI) see(s) some synergy in terms of our approach, strategies ... so we intend to build on that ... I 
don't see any discrepancy in terms of our approach and theirs. On the contrary, I really am encouraged by the level of understanding between us." ¶4. (C) Special Envoy Shyam Saran, who served as Ambassador to Burma in the late 1990s, told poloff July 18 that the meetings with Gambari went well. He relayed that the Burmese work well with Gambari, as opposed to his Malaysian predecessor, and he believed that Gambari would soon visit Aung San Suu Kyi again. -------------- NGOs Go After Indian Helicopter Sale to Burma -------------- ¶5. (U) In a related development, the BBC reported July 16 that the "European arms embargo against Burma is being threatened by Indian plans to sell an attack helicopter to the Rangoon regime." India's Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) has components and technology from European Union member sttes France, Belgium, the UK, Germany, Sweden, and Italy, according to the news outlet, which noted the need for vigilance in composing and monitoring end-use agreements for international arms transfers. The report concluded that, while "India is not itself restricted by (the EU's) arms ban," various European NGOs, including Amnesty International, are calling "on the EU to begin immediate consultations with (the GOI) to press for a rethink on the plan." The GOI had no public response to the report. NEW DELHI 00003318 002 OF 002 -------------- India's Motivations -------------- ¶6. (C) India's policy toward Burma has veered toward a focus on reducing the junta's dependence on China and securing its support in flushing out North-Eastern insurgent groups. Leading human rights activist Ravi Nair lamented that India had moved away from its past support for human rights in Burma in an effort to secure these two strategic objectives. He assessed that China's "string of pearls" strategy and inroads by North-Eastern insurgents made the Mandarins of South Block nervous enough to move human rights to the background in their interaction with Burma. -------------- Realpolitik Trumps Human Rights -------------- ¶7. COMMENT: It is a positive sign that the GOI is talking to the UN, especially with the openness that Gambari described to the press. However, the GOI is clearly not putting its money where its mouth is - evidenced by its securing defense relationships with the junta. EU members will likely not heed calls by NGOs to lodge even perfunctory protests with the GOI regarding the helicopter deal, as any such protests would fall on deaf ears, and could prove counter-productive in a country sensitive to external influences on its foreign policy. The GOI is too concerned about growing Chinese influence in Burma and too desirous of the regime's support in countering North-Eastern insurgent groups to sacrifice an opportunity for closer India-Burma ties solely due to humah rights considerations. We will persist in trying to get India to do more to pressure the Burmese on human rights. END COMMENT WHITE