DELHI DIARY, JULY 6-16

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 003248 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS MARR KUNR EINV PTER MCAP AS CB, ET, IS, VM, IN SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, JULY 6-16 REF: A. NEW DELHI 3070 ¶B. KOLKATA 197 ¶C. NEW DELHI 2865 ¶D. NEW DELHI 2991 Classified By: Acting PolCouns Atul Keshap for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from Embassy New Delhi for July 6-16, 2007 that did not feature in our other reporting, including: -- Sweet Success in Ethiopia: India Invests in Ethiopian Sugar and Wins African Support for a Security Council Seat -- India Looks East with the Visit of the Vietnamese Prime Minister.... -- ....While the Cambodian Prime Minister Is Forced to Cut His New Delhi Trip Short -- Australia and India to Talk Defense Cooperation in New Delhi -- Israel and India to Expand Missile Development Cooperation -- Jammu and Kashmir Panel to Recommend Compensation for Civilian Property? -- MP Escapes Attack in Jammu and Kashmir -- Indian Election Commission Announces Vice-Presidential Race in August -- Indian Presidential Race Mired in Mudslinging Sweet Success in Ethiopia: India Invests in Ethiopian Sugar and Wins African Support for a Security Council Seat -------------- ¶2. (U) India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council garnered the support of both Ethiopia and the 53-member African Union (AU) when External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee visited Ethiopia July 3-6. Mukherjee and AU Chairperson Alpha Oumar Konare met the last day of the visit to discuss "ways and means of further strengthening the India-Africa partnership." Konare told the press that "India is one of the countries in the world for which, in Africa, there is no opposition. India will have the support of Africa." Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Seyoum Mesfin, publicly pledged support for a permanent seat on the UNSC for India. In return, the Government of India (GOI) agreed to "sustain common positions" with Ethiopia on UN reform, including "the need for Africa to be represented as a permanent member on an expanded UNSC," according to the official statement from the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). ¶3. (U) Ethiopia received a three-year, $640 million loan from India to support Ethiopia's sugar industry. Agreements signed by the two sides include the formation of a Joint Ministerial Commission, a Bilateral Investment Promotion and 
Protection Agreement (BIPPA),agreements on science, technology and educational exchange, and a protocol for consultations between the two foreign affairs ministries. In addition, Mukherjee inaugurated the multi-million dollar "e-network" initiative, the brain-child of Indian President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, providing "tele-education" and "tele-medicine" to Africa. The program is designed to connect 53 African nations with India via satellite and fiber optics, allowing African hospitals to consult Indian with healthcare institutes and enabling African students to e-learn from top Indian institutions. ¶4. (C) Comment: India's investment in Ethiopia, the second most populous country on the African continent, and the positive public relations spin India will get from its "e-network" initiative, both appear to have worked in the GOI's favor. While trade promotion and protection via BIPPA stand to benefit both countries, India's loan to Ethiopia's sugar industry has sweetened the deal, apparently locking in NEW DELHI 00003248 002 OF 005 unfettered African support for India's bid for a permanent Security Council. End comment. India Looks East with the Visit of the Vietnamese Prime Minister.... -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In a continued effort to pursue its "Look East" policy (reftels A and B),India hosted Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung July 4-6. Dung visited Kolkata, Jamshedpur, Mumbai and New Delhi and met with Prime Minister Singh, President Kalam, the Minister of State for External Affairs Anand Sharma, Lok Sabha speaker Somnath Chatterjee, and Lok Sabha opposition leader L.K. Advani during his three-day visit. Vietnam signed nine agreements with the GOI, including a Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership, which provides for the establishment of a strategic dialogue, a joint working group on counterterrorism, closer defense cooperation, Indian financial assistance to Vietnam through grants and concessional Lines of Credit, a joint commitment to bilateral trade, and cooperation in science, technology and culture. ¶6. (U) Other agreements of note include: -- A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the Indian Department of Atomic Energy and the Vietnamese Ministry of Science and Technology to facilitate the training of Vietnamese in India in nuclear-related activities, and to provide Indian assistance to the India-Vietnam Nuclear Science Center in Dalat. -- A MOU on cooperation between Vietnam Steel Corporation and India's Tata Steel, Ltd. allowing for the sharing of expertise between the two companies, and designed to "deepen the relationship" between the two in the mining and steel making sectors. ¶7. (C) Comment: "Indian Express" analyst C. Raja Mohan referred to Dung's visit as "the acceleration of the strategic realignment in Asia." He saw the visit as "an opportunity (for New Delhi) to put behind the political and commercial neglect of Vietnam in recent years." Having set a target of doubling bilateral trade with Vietnam from US $1 billion in 2006 to US $2 billion by 2010, the GOI is poised to make investment in Vietnam a cornerstone of its "Look East" policy. End comment. ....While the Cambodian Prime Minister Is Forced to Cut His New Delhi Trip Short -------------- ¶8. (U) Also in the context of "Look East" diplomacy, Cambodian Prime Minister Samdech Hun Sen made his first trip to India in seven years on July 8, but was forced to call off his meetings with officials July 9 due to the death of former Indian Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar. According to the "Hindustan Times," Hun Sen was expected to sign a number of agreements in the areas of defense, energy and culture, including a technical assistance agreement between the National Petroleum Authority of Cambodia and the Indian Oil and Natural Gas (ONGC) Commission. According to the MEA, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee met Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong July 8 and conveyed that official meetings -- but no protocol events -- could be carried out as planned the next day, but the Cambodian delegation declined, deeming it improper to meet on the same day as Shekhar's funeral. The MEA reports that Hor Namhong indicated to Mukherjee that the delegation would return "as soon as mutually convenient dates were agreed upon." Australia and India to Talk Defense Cooperation in New Delhi NEW DELHI 00003248 003 OF 005 -------------- ¶9. (U) Australian Defence Minister Brendan Nelson held defense cooperation talks in New Delhi on July 11. According to media reports, Nelson met with Indian Defence Minister A.K. Antony, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and the chiefs of all three armed services to build upon the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on defense cooperation signed by the two sides in March 2006. The "Indian Express" speculated that the talks "give practical shape" to the quadrilateral dialogue among India, Australia, Japan and the U.S. which was initiated in Manila in May 2007. Information sharing related to counterterrorism figured prominently in discussions with Indian officials given the recent arrest on Australian soil of Indian nationals suspected of terrorism in the United Kingdom. The newly formed bilateral Maritime Security Operations Working Group was a topic. Australia has planned several upcoming port calls on India, and the Australian Navy Chief Russ Shaldern is expected to visit New Delhi in August. Israel and India to Expand Missile Development Cooperation -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The Indian Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by PM Singh, reportedly cleared a deal July 12 between India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) to expand their missile development cooperation with a longer-range version of the Barak missile system for the Indian Air Force (IAF). According to media reports, the proposed surface-to-air system is projected to cost US$2.5 billion and would have a range of 150 kilometers, replacing the current Soviet-era Pechora missile system currently being used by the Indians. Comment: This development is one more sign that India and Israel are increasing their already excellent defense ties. End comment. Jammu and Kashmir Panel to Recommend Compensation for Civilian Property? -------------- ¶11. (U) Defense Secretary Shekhar Dutt visited Jammu and Kashmir (J and K) July 5-6 to hold consultations with ground commanders in various districts of the region. Dutt heads a panel of experts on J and K, formed in March 2007 by Prime Minister Singh, to study the security situation in the state, and to assess if relocation and reconfiguration of troops can be carried out. Regional Corps Commander Lieutenant-General S.K. Sekhon was reportedly present along with other senior officials, who toured the Rajouri and Doda districts in Jammu, and Awantipur, Baramulla and Kupwara districts in Kashmir, according to media reports. ¶12. (U) The panel is expected to recommend immediate withdrawal of troops from orchards and schools, or offer payment of compensation for using such premises, according to the Indian media. "The Financial Express" reports that J and K Chief Minister Gulam Nabi Azad had been releasing civilian property occupied by paramilitary forces and the army since he took over in 2005, and that he sought immediate compensation for owners of orchards taken over by the security forces in a July 5 meeting with Dutt. Several media outlets report that the panel is expected to concede to Azad and recommend compensation as well as propose a separate fund for building infrastructure for security forces fighting militancy in the state. Azad, known for his opposition to troop reduction in the state as long as the terrorist and insurgent threat remains, reportedly expressed serious apprehensions to Dutt on the reduction of forces. ¶13. (U) Dutt, who is planning to retire July 31, is expected NEW DELHI 00003248 004 OF 005 to submit the panel's report to Defense Minister A.K. Antony at the end of July, after which a committee comprised of Antony and representatives of the Central and State governments will make a decision based upon the panel's recommendations. MP Omar Abdullah Escapes Attack in Jammu and Kashmir -------------- ¶14. (U) National Conference President and Member of Parliament (MP) Omar Abdullah survived a hand grenade attack in Jammu and Kashmir on July 9, according to press reports. The attack in the Kralgund village in Kupwara district wounded fourteen, including five military Central Reserve Police Force troopers, two policemen and seven civilians. Police reportedly said Abdullah was entering the house of a party worker near the venue of his public meeting in Kralgund when terrorists hurled the grenade. The area around the explosion site was immediately cordoned off and searches were carried out. As of July 9, no group had yet claimed responsibility for the attack. Insurgents had unsuccessfully targeted Abdullah previously in an October 2004 bomb attack. Indian Election Commission Announces Vice-Presidential Race in August -------------- ¶15. (U) With current Vice-President (VP) Bhairon Singh Shekhawat finishing his term on August 18, the Indian Election Commission announced that India's Thirteenth Vice-Presidential election will take place on August 10, with results declared the same day. The Vice-Presidential election, similar to the Presidential election, is conducted through an electoral college comprised of members from both houses of Parliament. The total number of voters is 790 (545 from the Lower House "Lok Sabha" and 245 from the Upper House "Rajya Sabha"). ¶16. (C) Political insiders claim the Left extended support to Congress' candidate, Pratibha Patil, for the post of President with the understanding that a Left party member would be fielded for Vice-President by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-Left coalition. The leading name in the rumor mill is current Speaker of the Lok Sabha and Communist Party of India-Marxist leader Somnath Chatterjee. Other names circulating include current Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, N. Karunanidhi; the royal heir to the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir and Congress Party Member of Parliament Karan Singh (whose name was also thrown in the pool for the Presidential race before the UPA fixed its sights on Patil); and former Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Farooq Abdullah. The last day to file nominations is July 23, so negotiations are expected to shift to the Vice-Presidential race once the results of the Presidential race is announced on July 21. Indian Presidential Race Mired in Mudslinging -------------- ¶17. (U) Since the June 14 announcement of Pratibha Patil as the UPA-Left Presidential Candidate, Patil has fumbled through gaffes regarding why India women went into purdah (ref c) and her conversations with the ghost of her dead guru (ref d),as well as accusations of corruption and criminal conduct. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) intensified the heat on July 10, launching a website at "www.knowpratibhapatil.com" replete with documents purporting to provide evidence of Patil's role in a women's bank cooperative which failed due to untenable loans made to her family members, a shady land deal benefiting her family, and allegations that she shielded her brother from murder charges. Opposition editorials and cartoons have appeared depicting Patil as someone who will tarnish the office of the NEW DELHI 00003248 005 OF 005 President and have urged members of the Electoral College to reconsider their allegiance to her. The BJP announced its intention to publish a pamphlet summarizing information from the website and mail it to all members of the Electoral College. On July 1, after days of silence, Patil attempted to refute the allegations, describing them as "false and malicious." ¶18. (U) On July 7, Congress struck back, dredging up old records showing that Patil's opponent, the National Democratic Alliance-supported candidate Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, had joined the British colonial police force in the 1940's when India's Independence movement was growing. As a result, Congress questioned his allegiance to the nation. Shekhawat spokesperson and BJP leader Sushma Swaraj dismissed the attack, saying Congress lost its right to talk about the freedom struggle after appointing a foreigner as its President, referring to Sonia Gandhi. ¶19. (C) Comment: As voting on July 19 gets closer, the race gets dirtier and dirtier. Though the Left and Congress are sticking by their candidate, the BJP is turning up the heat and asking the Electoral College to vote its conscience, not its politics. Congress has yet to launch a full frontal assault on Shekhawat, focusing primarily on meeting with coalition party leaders and lining up votes. Though Patil still appears to be the front-runner, the mudslinging campaign could prove effective, potentially dislodging some votes from the UPA-Left coalition. The damage to her reputation could reduce her stature, even if she succeeds in winning the contest. End comment. PYATT