INDIA ON ALERT AS USUAL FOR REPUBLIC DAY THREATS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000306 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR ASEC KDEM KISL PK IN SUBJECT: INDIA ON ALERT AS USUAL FOR REPUBLIC DAY THREATS NEW DELHI 00000306 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Acting PolCouns Atul Keshap, Reason 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary. As India's Republic Day fast approaches, security in the capital and the country's largest cities has increased to its highest level as Indians prepare for a significant national holiday. Airports remain on alert as press reports surfaced of threats, over the January 13-14 weekend, that Pakistan-based terrorists were plotting to hijack an Indian plane. Press reports say also that New Delhi's Special Police Cell arrested two Harakat ul-Islami members plotting a largescale strike in the capital for Republic Day. The two were reportedly carrying Rs. 4.5 lakh (approximately $10,000),a detonator, a timer, and enough weapons grade explosives (1.6 kg of RDX) to cause a large explosion. Arrests of this kind are not unusual for India, with two Lashkar-e-Taiba members arrested on New Years Eve in New Delhi carrying similar explosives and plotting similar attacks. They are a reminder that the lull in terrorist incidents since the July 2006 Mumbai train bombings and September 2006 Malegan mosque attack may be due more to recent successes by India's security forces than to a reduction in the terrorist threat. End Summary. Bracing Again for the Worst -------------- ¶2. (C) The Deputy Commissioner of Police for New Delhi tells our RSO that his forces are taking special precautions in preparation for Republic Day, including increasing police deployments, especially surrounding government buildings and the January 26th parade route, and that they are setting up checks on surrounding roads. This adds to the usual high level of security in the capital. A Disturbing Trend -------------- ¶3. (C) Terrorism expert Dr. Ajai Sahni told PolOff that the arrests this week are part of a continuos process in India in recent years. His organization, the Institute for Conflict Management, has tracked more than 75 arrests of a similar nature in New Delhi in the past year alone. Most of the suspects, he says, are picked up carrying similar amounts of RDX, with plans to carry out a range of possible attacks in Indian cities. Dr. Sahni claims that the majority of these terrorists infiltrate into India through Bangladesh after they receive training in Pakistan. Although his organization has been tracking similar arrests since 1998, he notes that there has been a significant rise in arrests outside of Jammu and Kashmir since 2003. If you focus on the number of successful terrorist attacks in India, he says, you will only see the tip of the iceberg in terms of the threat India faces. Business As Usual, Unfortunately -------------- ¶4. (C) Comment: The red alerts issued every year in preparation for Republic Day demonstrates the ongoing concern that Indians have for their security as Pakistan-based terrorists continue to build terrorist networks in the Indian heartland. Any one of the cells India has disrupted in the past year could have engaged in attacks similar to the Mumbai bombings or the 2005 Diwali attacks in New Delhi's most popular markets. Although police sources consistently tell us they have no indication that the terrorists they arrest are targeting Americans, members of the American community in NEW DELHI 00000306 002.2 OF 002 New Delhi are invited to watch the Republic Day parade. With careful preparation and good luck, hopefully this year's observation across India will be peaceful. MULFORD