KASHMIR ANXIOUS WITH LITTLE SHORT-TERM HOPE FOR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 002935 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN SUBJECT: KASHMIR ANXIOUS WITH LITTLE SHORT-TERM HOPE FOR PEACE REF: NEW DELHI 2792 Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius, Reason 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: Unknown terrorists threw a grenade at a bus stop in Doda in J & K June 25, wounding 15, three critically. Thousands of Kashmiri Muslims, both Shi'a and Sunni, staged minor, non-violent street actions and chanted anti-US slogans June 14 and 15 to protest the Iraq Samarra Mosque bombings. Post contacts in Kashmir downplayed the anti-US angle of the protests, noting that known troublemakers such as hard-line separatist Hurriyat Chairman Syed Ali-Shah Geelani were craftily manipulating the protests and fabricating the anti-US spin for personal and political reasons. Two large religious pilgrimages in Kashmir in June may be targeted by terrorists, but Indian security and police forces are well aware of the danger and have taken preventive measures. The mood in the valley is grim, with political uncertainties in Pakistan dashing hopes of peaceful settlement for the time being. The Government of India and the Chief Minister of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) are publicly refusing the People's Democratic Party's demands for demilitarization of J&K. The Siachen talks between Pakistan and India have hit another major snag, with both sides squabbling over establishment of the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL). END SUMMARY. TERRORISTS LOB GRENADE; 15 COMMUTERS INJURED IN EXPLOSION ¶2. (S) On June 25, unknown assailants threw a grenade at a bus stop in Doda in J & K June 25, wounding 15, three critically. Shakhee Ammad Beig, Senior Superintendent of Police in Jammu told senior POLFSN that known terrorist group Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is active in the Doda region, but that no group has claimed responsibility at time of report. Indian media reports that the attackers had aimed for an Indian Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) patrol but missed their target, sending the grenade into a group of commuters waiting for a bus. Beig added that the injured are being airlifted to Jammu for medical treatment. OPPORTUNISTIC HURRIYAT MEMBERS ATTEMPT TO WHIP UP ANTI-US SENTIMENT IN KASHMIR ¶3. (S) All major Indian media outlets reported on the demonstrations in the Kashmiri valley on June 14 and 15. The purported cause of the demonstrations was the bombing and serious damage caused to the Shi'a Samarra mosque in Baghdad �0A;June 14. On June 14, Kashmiri media reported that demonstrations broke out in several places, including Kargil, Budgam district and Srinigar. Youths shouted anti-US and anti-Israel slogans and burned President Bush in effigy. Kargil emptied its streets of vehicle traffic as thousands of youths turned out to protest. Hurriyat leader Maulana Abbas Ansari and Chairman Syed Ali-Shah Geelani made separate public statements blaming the mosque bombing on "Zionist elements" and those who are trying to drive a wedge of discord between Sunni and Shi'a. Many of the protesters organized joint Shi'a and Sunni gatherings and shouted slogans of Muslim unity. More protests were held the following day after prayers. Media reported that the protests ended peacefully. Muzami Jalil, the Indian Express correspondent in Srinigar, gave senior POLFSN his take on events June 21, stating "small groups demonstrated against the Iraq mosque bombing. It does not mean anything - Geelani does all this, he has a personal grudge against the U.S." Tahir Mohiudin, (Editor, Chattan, an Urdu media outlet) commented that despite the Shi'a protesters' anti-US sloganeering, "In their hearts they know who bombed the mosques in Iraq." SECURITY INTENSIFIED FOR PILGRIMAGES IN JUNE ¶4. (S) Two major public religious gatherings are scheduled NEW DELHI 00002935 002 OF 004 to take place in J&K in June, expected to draw thousands of pilgrims and worshippers, and worrying security forces about the risk of terrorist attacks. The annual Armanath Yatra pilgrimage kicks off June 20, and is expected to last two months. Other than Amarnath Yatra, there will be a Kashmiri Pandit gathering on June 23 on the outskirts of Srinagar, called Mela Khir Bhawani (Fair to worship the Goddess). Last year, around one hundred thousand Kashmiri Pandits and others gathered for the Mela. ¶5. (S) Ved Bhasin, (Chairman, Kashmir Times Group) told us that security is beefed up for Amarnath Yatra. Shakeel Ahmad Beig, Senior Superintendent of Police in Jammu told us, "for now, the Amarnath Yatra will be our only focus for two months." He noted that the Inspector General of Police ordered a special meeting solely for the purpose of discussing Amarnath Yatra security preparations. Beig added that this year the Commanders have decided to replace the Border Security Forces who have conducted Armanath Yatra security in the past with Central Reserve Police Forces along the Yatra route. Beig described this as a "lenient" break from past security arrangements. Tahir Mohiudin predicted that the Amarnath Yatra and Khirbhawani Mela will pass by without much threat. SUSPECTED TERRORIST CAUGHT IN J & K, RUMORED TO BE FORMER PAK ARMY OFFICER ¶6. (S) Muzami Jalil released a story over the weekend detailing the capture of a suspected former Pakistan Army officer, Shahzad Khan, in Batapora locality in Kashmir. Jalil told senior POLFSN "I am one hundred percent sure that this guy has been arrested." Jalil reported that Khan was in active duty in the Kargil war of 1999 and has claimed relation to LTG Mohammed Aziz, a "trusted aide of General Musharraf" during the war. Jalil also reported that Khan has been operating with a militant group on Kashmir since 2001, and he speculated that Khan may be a deserter or quit the Pakistani military to join a Kashmiri militant group. Post contacted Gopal Sharma, Director General of J & K police on June 25, who categorically denied Jalil's story, saying "If we had caught a (Pakistani) Army Captain, we would have been shouting from roof top and that would have been evidence of Pakistan's involvement." Kuldeep Khoda, Sharma's deputy, verified that police have detained an individual, whom he described as "hardcore LET", who "may be a Pak Army deserter and have ties to a General in the Pak army," but he denied the rest of Jalil's story. LACK OF POLITICAL MOVEMENT IN J&K BRINGS FRUSTRATION, DIRE PREDICTIONS ¶7. (S) NOTE: All comments in paras 7 - 10 were gathered before the June 25 grenade attack. ¶8. (S) Nearly all of Post's contacts in Kashmir save one opined that despite the lull in violence, the ground situation is simmering with repressed frustration and anger due to the political stalemate. Bhasin of the Kashmir Times said, "The situation is worsening, especially in the valley. Human rights violations are increasing." Arun Joshi, the Hindustan Correspondent in Jammu said the lack of political progress is "bringing frustration among the youths in the valley. The situation will be worse than even early nineties. The situation in Pakistan is affecting the valley. Anti U.S. feeling is growing among Muslims. All these are dangerous trends." Luv Puri, The Hindu Correspondent in Jammu said "J&K as a whole is drifting away." He shared his fear that "no other formula is in sight" but that the state will split three ways, into Hindu Jammu, Muslim Kashmir and Buddhist Ladakh. He noted that students and professors in the valley and from Jammu are taking more communal and divisive NEW DELHI 00002935 003 OF 004 positions. ¶9. (S) Tahir Mohiudin, Editor, Chattan, an Urdu media outlet told senior POLFSN on June 21 that Shabir Shah (the former Hurriyat representative and now leader of the moderate, independent "J & K Democratic Freedom Party") recently took the initiative to unite the two Hurriyats and other separatists, but without any success. Mohiudin noted that Musharraf,s difficulties in Pakistan have the moderate Hurriyat deeply concerned adding, "if there would be any change in Pakistan, they are in trouble. They were dependent on Musharraf." ¶10. (S) The lone positive voice, Muzami Jalil, the Indian Express correspondent in Srinigar, told us, "Things have changed drastically. Srinagar looks like a normal city. Shops are open late, people move around late. The security situation is not bad. Militants are trying to hit, but not able to manage." DEMILITARIZATION DEBATE PROVES DIVISIVE ¶11. (SBU) The People,s Democratic Party (PDP),the UPA coalition government's main ally, has been using the demand of withdrawal of Indian troops from J&K, (demilitarization) as a political whipping stick with increasing vehemence in the past several months, and has held rallies in support of the demand. The moderate Hurriyat, led by Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, has also voiced support for demilitarization in J&K. On the opposing side, J&K Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad and the Congress party have vociferously spoken out against any demilitarization plans. ¶12. (SBU) BACKGROUND: The UPA government constituted two expert panels earlier this year to deliberate about demilitarization. One, headed by Defense Secretary Shekhar Dutt, is carrying out an in-depth assessment of the situation. The second panel will undertake a review of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act and how it is implemented in different areas of the state. Chief Minister Azad had voiced his opposition to the formation of these two committees earlier this year and, according to Indian media, held a press conference in which he displayed infiltration numbers to prove that infiltration has gone up in 2007, the first Chief Minister in 20 years to do so. END BACKGROUND. ¶13. (S) On June 18, Defense Minister A. K. Antony stated to media that infiltration into J&K this year has gone down compared to 2006, adding that only April 2007 has witnessed an increase in infiltration from across the border compared to last year. This directly contradicts the infiltration numbers given to us by Kuldeep Khoda, J & K Additional Director General of Police on June 13 (see reftel),which show that infiltration has increased in each month of 2007, compared to 2006. Infiltration levels remain considerably below those during the same period in 2005, however. ¶14. (S) On June 17, the Panther Party, a Jammu-based junior J&K coalition partner, added more fuel to the demilitarization squabble by withdrawing its support from the Azad-led government, accusing it of caving in to the PDP on demilitarization. Antony weighed in, stating there would be no demilitarization or troop reduction in Jammu and Kashmir until after the two committees have handed down their assessments. SIACHEN PROGRESS MOVES WITH GLACIAL SPEED ¶15. (SBU) Defense Minister Antony reiterated to media June 18 that Pakistan would have to authenticate the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) on the disputed Siachen glacier before any forward mofement could be made to resolve the issue. On June 20, Pakistani MEA spokesperson Tasnim Aslam told media NEW DELHI 00002935 004 OF 004 that Pakistan has ruled out authentication of troop positions in Siachen, rejecting India's condition for resolution of the dispute. Aslam said "Repetition of a rigid position that Pakistan has already rejected is not going to be of any help and will lead to nowhere." ¶16. (S) COMMENT: With the notable exception of today's bloody grenade attack, violence in the Kashmiri valley is down, yet cross border infiltrations are up compared to the same period last year. The feeling among our J & K contacts is that political turmoil in Pakistan has caused Musharraf to focus more on domestic issues than on the resolution of the Kashmir debate, much to the frustration and anxiety of his erstwhile allies such as Geelani and Mirwaiz Umar Farooq. With Pakistan's attention distracted, and New Delhi pointedly ignoring them, radical Kashmiri leaders are grasping for volatile issues to galvanize their supporters, and have settled for the Iraqi mosque bombing and demilitarization of J&K as their latest stalking horses. Mufti Mohammed Sayeed,s PDP has been using the demilitarization demand as a political whipping stick with increasing vehemence in the past several months, and can be expected to keep it up as the 2008 elections approach. END COMMENT. MULFORD