PROTESTS IN RAJASTHAN TURN VIOLENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002564 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2017 TAGS: PGOV CASC PHUM PREL PINR SCUL IN SUBJECT: PROTESTS IN RAJASTHAN TURN VIOLENT Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On May 28, caste tensions turned violent in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)ruled state of Rajasthan. Demanding to be socially demoted from the Other Backward Caste (OBC) to the Scheduled Tribe (ST) category, the Gujjar community staged protests and blocked national highways in Rajasthan. This demotion would allow the Gujjars access to reserved seats in government jobs and colleges. On May 29, the protestors clashed violently with police, resulting in over 14 dead and at least 100 injured. Post has issued a warden message since Rajasthan is a major tourist destination for U.S. citizens. Vasundhara Raje, the state's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Chief Minister (CM),is facing strong criticism from all sides, with the Gujjars insisting that the change in status was previously promised by the BJP. Rajasthan goes to the polls in November 2008, and this challenge to law and order is the last thing she needs, especially since state police are being accused of heavy handed behavior. Tensions are simmering and more violence is likely. End Summary Demanding Social Demotion -------------- ¶2. (U) On May 28, an association claiming to represent the Gujjar community of Rajasthan began setting up blockades on national highways. The demonstrators declared they would not relent until the Rajasthan government moves the Gujjars from the Other Backward Caste (OBC) category to the Scheduled Tribe (ST) category. The switch would qualify the Gujjars for more affirmative action benefits than they currently receive. On May 29, the approximately 30,000 demonstrators attacked police attempting to remove the obstructions in the road. The police lost control of the situation, as protestors attacked them with stones, set buses ablaze, and torched a police station. In retaliation, the police hit the crowd with batons, lobbed teargas, and eventually opened fire. By the afternoon, the central government had rushed over 2000 paramilitary personnel to the scene, in an attempt to restore order. On May 30, protestors burned two more police stations. Press reports indicated at least 15 dead, including several police officers and over 100 injured. ¶3. (U) Post has issued a warden message to American citizens to avoid traveling by road in Rajasthan until further notice, and to monitor the consular website for updates on the security situation. OBC versus ST -------------- ¶4. (U) STs receive greater benefits and reservations in jobs and education than OBCs. The constitution reserves twenty-three percent of Parliamentary seats, government jobs, and government supported school and college seats for STs and Scheduled Castes (SCs). Each state is free to determine whether it will establish quotas for OBCs; nothing is nationally mandated. ¶5. (SBU) Each community of ST/SCs and OBCs is identified in the Indian Constitution. To change the status of any Indian caste or community, Parliament must amend the constitution. A state does not have the authority to make such a change on its own and can only submit a request and recommendation for Parliament to consider. He Said, She Said: Broken Promises -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The Gujjars, who have traditionally supported Congress, claim the BJP won their votes in 2003 by promising NEW DELHI 00002564 002 OF 002 to change their status to ST. The ruling BJP retorted that they made no such promises, but rather pledged to prepare a report recommending the change to the GOI. The Committee working on this report is expected to complete it by July 31. Political Allegiances -------------- ¶7. (C) In Rajasthan, the only community constitutionally recognized as ST is the Meena community, who are traditionally alligned with the BJP. The Meenas vehemently oppose the Gujjars becoming ST because they would be required to share reservations allotted to their community with Gujjars. The BJP is caught between the conflicting demands of the Meena, who constitute 12 percent of Rajasthan's population, and the Gujjar, who are only seven percent. Since the Meend are politically more powerful, the BJP is more likely to accede to its demand and give the Gujjar the cold shoulder. Comment: A Political Nightmare -------------- ¶8. (C) BJP Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje faces a tough election when Rajasthan goes to the polls in November 2008. There are only two significant political players in Rajasthan, the BJP and Congress, and they usually take turns ruling the state. Raje, who is widely acknowledged to be both competent and popular, hoped to break this pattern and win a second term for her government. Congress is strong and well-organized in Rajasthan and the election would have been a hard-fought contest, regardless. In such a highly-charged political environment, with so much at stake, the current violent confrontation could be harmful to Raje and her party. ¶9. (C) Congress politicians are not the only ones attacking the heavy handed police action against the protestors. Members of Raje's own party are demanding an investigation of her management of the Gujjars. Further, on May 30, India-US Forum of Parliamentarian Executive Director Ramesh Chandran indicated to PolOff that police from the Meena community are suspected to have fired the first shots at the protestors. If this is confirmed, it would add more fuel to an already burning fire. The situation remains tense with the Army keeping a tight vigil. Post will continue to monitor the situation in the state. End Comment. MULFORD