PUNJAB CONTINUES TO SIMMER OVER RELIGIOUS LEADER'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002432

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: PUNJAB CONTINUES TO SIMMER OVER RELIGIOUS LEADER'S
"BLASPHEMOUS" ACT


Classified By: PolOff Joel Ehrendreich for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


Dera Sacha Sauda Refuses to Apologize
--------------


1. (SBU) Since May 14, Punjab has been in a state of crisis
over an alleged sacrilegious act. Sikh leaders have demanded
that Sant Gurmeet Singh Ram Rahim, the head of the Dera Sacha
Sauda religious sect apologize for insulting their faith by
dressing up as the tenth holy Guru in Sikhism, Guru Govind
Singh. Although Rahim came just short of issuing an apology,
expressing regret for any misunderstandings he may have
caused, Sikh leaders deemed his gesture unacceptable, and
have called a state-wide bandh (strike) on May 22. They want
all Dera Sacha Sauda campuses throughout the state closed
until Rahim provides what they define as an acceptable
apology. Sikhs in neighboring states of Haryana and Jammu
have honored the bandh call.


2. (SBU) As tensions rose, during the week of May 14, the
Central government sent thousands of paramiltary forces to
Punjab and Haryana, where the Dera Sacha Sauda headquarters
is located. The media reported isolated incidents of
violence in Punjab, including some Sikh clashes with police,
but overall the bandh was peaceful in both Haryana and
Punjab. In Jammu state, Sikh protestors burned effigies of
Rahim and forced shops to close.

A Tight Fix All Around
--------------


3. (C) Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal remains in a tight
bind. Performing a complicated dance, appealing to his Sikh
base -- supporting their demand for an apology, while trying
to maintain law and order. Only in office for four months,
Badal's new government cannot afford to lose control of the
situation.


4. (C) Badal's political coalition partner, the Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) is also throwing strong rhetoric into the
ring, to keep its Hindu base happy, stating "if anything goes
wrong...the government headed by Parkash Singh Badal shall be
solely responsible...The BJP will not hesitate in taking hard
decisions in the larger interests of the people of Punjab."
While Hindus might not support the Sacha Sauda religious
sect, the Sikh protests are hurting business, and traders,
the traditional BJP vote bank, are losing money. Congress
also has a vested interest in the dispute, since Dera Sacha
Sauda supported it in the 2007 elections.

Bad for Business
--------------


5. (C) Indian press reports that the growing confrontation in
Punjab is worrying investors looking to develop the state. A
meeting scheduled for May 22 to discuss the establishment of
an "education city" within Chandigarh has been postponed.
Investors in the power sector have also declined to visit
plant sites in view of the bandh.

Khalistan Revival?
--------------


6. (C) Perhaps the most disturbing trend developing from the
communal tensions in Punjab is a resurgence of rhetoric
calling for the creation of a separate Sikh state
(Khalistan). Since the violent suppression of the Khalistan
movement in the turbulent 80s and 90s, pro-Khalistani
elements have been relegated to the fringes of society. Some
Punjab watchers have begun to express fear that the dormant
Khalistanis are using the gaffe of the Dera Sacha Sauda
leader to re-emerge and stoke separatist sentiments in young
Sikhs and the Sikh religious leadership. The uproar has
created a serious challenge for the Badal government. He

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cannot allow the controversy to continue unabated, but also
cannot afford to alienate his Sikh political base or the
Hindu support base of his coalition partners, the BJP.
Should Rahim formally submit an "acceptable" apology to the
Sikh community, the crisis could quickly die down and pull
the Badal government back from the brink.
PYATT