TOUR D'HORIZON WITH CPI-M POLITBURO CHIEF SITARAM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 002390 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR IN SUBJECT: TOUR D'HORIZON WITH CPI-M POLITBURO CHIEF SITARAM YECHURY NEW DELHI 00002390 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. SUMMARY (C) On May 17, PolCouns met with Sitaram Yechury, a Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) Member of Parliament (MP),member of the politburo and editor of the party journal "People's Democracy." Yechury welcomed the outcome of the recently concluded Uttar Pradesh (UP) elections as "good news for the UPA." However, he noted that the new Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) Chief Minister (CM) Mayawati could pose a serious threat to Congress over the long term. Yechury also supported Congress loyalist for President in the July election, Pranab Mukherjee (current Minister for External Affairs). ¶2. (C) Yechury proffered that while India must judge the proposed Iran pipeline project on its merits, seeing the issue as one of maintaining sovereignty against U.S. intimidation is counterproductive and distracts from the real issue. On Nepal, Yechury agreed with PolCouns that the GON Home Minister cannot be the main negotiator with the Maoists. Yechury expressed interest in working with the Mission to craft an International Visitor Leadership Program for him this coming September. END SUMMARY Uttar Pradesh (UP): Good News for Congress -------------- ¶3. (C) Yechury was confident that BSP Chief Mayawati's win in UP will not destabilize the UPA government, and will in fact increase the likelihood that it will hold together until parliamentary elections in 2009. He characterized the relationship between Lucknow and Delhi as mutually dependent and beneficial. Yechury speculated that Mayawati needed to maintain a good relationship with the Central government in light of her legal troubles. She is facing charges and is under investigation for a number of corrupt deals, including the Taj corridor scandal, in which she approved multi-million dollar deals as Chief Minister without following regulations and ensuring oversight. She is accused of transferring the titles for a number of plots of land to her and her associates as part of the deal. Mayawati will need the intervention of the UPA government to slow down or stop the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) from continuing its investigation of this deal "as well as others," Yechury maintained. In return, Yechury indicated that she will support the UPA government and, possibly, the Congress candidate for President. The Bad News for Congress -------------- ¶4. (C) Yechury noted the strong anti-incumbency wave within each constituency in UP, which cost 63 percent of sitting legislators their seats. Yechury implied that although the people of UP were tired of the goonda raj (rule of criminals),a lack of development, and the absence of law and order in the state, they were unlikely to get much relief. Instead, they "lost out," becoming pawns in campaign equations of caste and identity politics, Yechury commented. Characterizing Mayawati as "very clever," Yechury noted that she played the game of caste politics better than Congress or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He speculated that, if Mayawati successfully co-opts the Congress vote banks NEW DELHI 00002390 002.2 OF 004 nationwide, appealing to upper and lower castes and Muslims, she could damage not only Congress but the BJP by taking its Brahmin vote bank in the 2009 national elections. BJP Humiliated in UP -------------- ¶5. (C) Yechury stated that, while Rahul Gandhi's performance in UP was absymal, the BJP suffered greater humiliation by losing more than 30 seats. He pointed out that BJP President Rajnath Singh is a UP native and was in charge of the party's campaign in the state. Yechury declared, the BJP's "social engineering" -- trying to retain its Brahmin vote bank while also winning the Thakur (also upper caste) vote -- did not work at all. The Presidential Race is On! -------------- ¶6. (C) Yechury described Minister of External Affairs Pranab Mukherjee as the "best among Congress' candidates." Expecting the 2009 election results to be murky and contentious, Yechury contended that the CPI-M would like a Presidential candidate who understands the intricacies of Parliamentary procedure and protocol. This will help if the 2009 contest proves indecisive and the President is called upon to take a more central role in governance. However, Yechury stated, Mukherjee would have to "give up" his aspirations of becoming Prime Minister and Congress would have to give up its political "pilot," who is a vital consensus builder with the Left and leading Cabinet Minister. Furthermore, if Mukherjee became President, he could no longer head the Lok Sabha (lower house),plunging Sonia Gandhi into that role and exposing her to the daily "rough and tumble" world of parliamentary politics. Posturing Ain't Nuthin' But Trouble -------------- ¶7. (C) Yechury characterized the letter sent to the Prime Minister by U.S. lawmakers warning India of its relationship with Iran as simply providing more fodder for BJP (and Left) attacks on the UPA government. Distancing the CPI-M from verbal diatribes against the U.S. made in Parliament, Yechury noted that the lower House was functioning against the backdrop of soon-to-be-released UP election results. According to Yechury, the BJP's body language changed dramatically as soon as the UP outcome became apparent. Yechury agreed that the over-inflated nationalist posturing of some MPs did a disservice to the issue and subordinated it to politics. Yechury described the pipeline with Iran as a pragmatic issue which needs to be judged on matters such as cost and the pipeline's security. He further stipulated that nationalistic and anti-American rhetoric are "not good for India either because we might be compelled to react and not make the right decision." Yechury claimed that the letter would not have caused such chaos if Parliament were not in Session and UP elections not underway. A Trip to Nepal -------------- ¶8. (C) Yechury acknowledged that elections in Nepal needed to take place in late October or early November and insisted NEW DELHI 00002390 003.2 OF 004 that the GOI was "prodding" for this schedule. He also asserted that the GOI does not support GON Home Minister, Krishna Prasad Sitaula functioning as both Home Minister and chief negotiator with the Maoists. Yechury described his trip to a Maoist camp in Nepal, which he identified as Brigade Headquarters Number 3, that he took in a non-government helicopter. He emphasized that until now only UN officials had visited the camps. He expressed concern regarding how the camps will operate during the monsoon season. Yechury also noted the large number of Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) combatants -- as many as 26,000 of whom are registered -- residing in the camps, who will "pose a problem" given the limited resources available for their rehabilation. Yechury also remarked that he does not believe the Maoists' expressed desire to integrate into the Nepali army. Public Interest Litigation on Civil Nuclear Deal -------------- ¶9. (C) Yechury derided the public interest litigation (PIL) petition of Mumbai-based scientist MN Ramamurthy demanding more transparency and more time for debate on the bilateral civil nuclear deal as "frivolous." He did not believe the courts would entertain the PIL and predicted they would throw it out after the normal formalities. International Visitors Leadership Program (IVLP) -------------- ¶10. (C) Yechury asked us to send him an informal email with the details of a potential IVLP crafted for him and promised to consider programs and potential dates. Since Yechury's wife Seema Chishti has also been selected, they might consider traveling to the U.S. together. Yechury noted that a program in September might work best, since it will be between the Monsoon and Winter Sessions of Parliament. Despite his bosses' reluctance, we will try our best to get this influential communist leader to visit the U.S. Comment: A Thinking Communist -------------- ¶11. (C) Yechury leads the CPI-M's "moderate" wing, which stands opposed to the more doctrinaire policies of General Secretary Prakash Karat. During his third meeting with SIPDIS PolCouns, he went out of his way to establish his moderate credentials. Distancing CPI-M from the recent barrage of accusations in Parliament alleging U.S. attacks on India's sovereignty, he instead argued that hyperbolic, nationalistic rhetoric should be disavowed in favor of more pragmatic responses. He also spoke candidly about the relationship between politics in UP and at the Center, clearly predicting that, in the near term, the UPA government will remain strong with Mayawati maintaining a truce with Congress. However, in the long term, Yechury was certain that Mayawati will pose a significant problem for both Congress and the BJP in the 2009 national elections. Given that Yechury is a trusted figure by both the GON as well as the Maoists, his role is potentially helpful in the effort to make the Maoists honest. The best of a bad lot, Yechury is an intelligent interlocutor who can potentially help us curb the Communists' worst tendencies. END COMMENT. NEW DELHI 00002390 004.2 OF 004 PYATT