UTTAR PRADESH ELECTIONS CONCLUDED; RESULTS ON MAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002203 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER SCUL KDEM IN SUBJECT: UTTAR PRADESH ELECTIONS CONCLUDED; RESULTS ON MAY 11 REF: A. NEW DELHI 2140 ¶B. NEW DELHI 2092 ¶C. NEW DELHI 1946 ¶D. NEW DELHI 1915 ¶E. NEW DELHI 1699 ¶F. NEW DELHI 1675 ¶G. NEW DELHI 1508 Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) Election Concludes on QPeaceful Note -------------- ¶1. (U) On May 8, polling concluded in the seventh and final phase of the protracted election in Uttar Pradesh (UP). The voting took place in 59 constituencies in East UP. Approximately 45 percent of the electorate cast their votes and there were no reported security incidents. The East UP districts of Gorakhpur, Azamgarh and Faizabad, where voting was held, have long been known throughout the state as the home of criminal mafias and "contract killers," and elections have been routinely dominated by "musclemen" who intimidate villagers to vote for "mafia dons." Some 163 of the candidates had criminal records, including felony convictions. To ensure a fair and smooth contest, the Election Commission deployed 657 companies of the Central Para Military Force (CPMF) and the Punjab Police service and five "special observers." Voters expressed gratitude for the security blanket, with many, especially low-caste voters, saying this was the first time in living memory that they felt they could vote as they pleased. The Samajwadi Party (SP) of Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav is well-entrenched in this region and he pulled out the stops to ensure a good result, regularly addressing campaign rallies in remote villages. A Mini Surge for the SP -------------- ¶2. (U) In the 2002 elections the SP won a clear majority of the 59 Legislative Assembly seats: SP - 21 BSP - 17 BJP - 10 Congress - 4 The NDTV exit poll predicted a "mini-surge" for the SP in this year's contest: SP - 20-24 BSP - 19-23 BJP - 10-11 Congress - 4-6 Mayawati Within Striking Distance? -------------- ¶3. (U) The last minute increase in SP votes is not enough to reverse the state-wide trend, however, as exit polls continue to predict that the ruling party will suffer a major setback in 2007. Polls and pundits agree that Mayawati's BSP party will emerge as the largest in the state and that she could have a serious chance of forming the next government. The Star News/Nielsen exit poll: BSP - 137 NEW DELHI 00002203 002 OF 002 BJP - 108 SP - 96 Congress - 27 The CNN-IBN/Indian Express Poll predicted an even bigger pro-BSP wave: BSP - 152-168 SP - 99-111 BJP - 80 - 90 Congress 21-27 Congress by the Wayside? -------------- ¶4. (C) Should the CNN-IBN exit poll prove the most accurate, a combination of the BSP and Congress would be within 5-10 seats of a majority. Should the margin be that slim, it would take Mayawati only a matter of hours to find the needed seats to put her over the top by enlisting small parties and independents into yet another hodge-podge coalition. Such a government would continue the trend of ongoing instability in UP and could prove short-lived. Several polls have now predicted that the efforts of the Gandhi family to spark a Congress revival in UP will prove a failure, and that the party could gain as few as two seats despite the efforts of Sonia, Priyanka and Rahul. This would be a big blow to Gandhi-Nehru prestige, most particularly for Rahul Gandhi, who spent considerable time conducting "road-shows" throughout the state. The widely-respected NDTV poll broke with the consensus, stating that Congress will log 35-45 seats. State-wide results will be announced May 11 and post will provide analysis septel. ¶5. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) PYATT