BSP MAINTAINS ITS LEAD IN UTTAR PRADESH SIXTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002140 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER SCUL KDEM IN SUBJECT: BSP MAINTAINS ITS LEAD IN UTTAR PRADESH SIXTH PHASE POLLING REF: A. NEW DELHI 2092 ¶B. NEW DELHI 1946 ¶C. NEW DELHI 1915 ¶D. NEW DELHI 1699 ¶E. NEW DELHI 1675 ¶F. NEW DELHI 1508 Classified By: A/PolCouns Atul Keshap for reasons 1.4 (B,D) Another Peaceful Election Day -------------- ¶1. (U) The sixth phase of the Uttar Pradesh (UP) election took place without significant problems on May 3. Polling was conducted in 52 constituencies in nine districts in a remote area of southeastern UP. Three of the districts are home to Naxalite activity, but they did not emerge from their jungle hideouts to challenge the polls. Participation, at 45 percent of the eligible voters, was less than the 51.8 percent recorded in 2002. This decline may have been due to the efforts of the Election Commission, which reduced the incidence of fraudulent voting. The UP election will conclude on May 8, when 59 constituencies will go to the polls. Results will appear May 11. The Pattern Continues -------------- ¶2. (U) Notoriously unreliable exit polls confirmed the continued BSP dominance of the election. There was a statistically insignificant difference between the BJP and SP, who were both tied for second place. The NDTV exit poll predicted the following outcome for the sixth phase: BSP -- 19-23 BJP -- 9-13 SP -- 9-13 Congress -- three The state-wide projection was as follows: BSP -- 120-130 BJP -- 110-120 SP -- 110-120 Congress -- 35-45 Others -- 10-20 Communists Play it Cool -------------- ¶3. (C) In a May 4 meeting with Poloff, Muhammad Salim a CPI(M) MP and Deputy Head of the party delegation in the Lok Sabha, distanced himself from the SP, which has been a long-time ally of the Left Front. Salim concurred with the common assessment that the SP would take a beating in this election and was unlikely to form the government, but opined that the exit polls were over-estimating the extent of the SP loss. Salim pointed out that while the SP will take a big hit in Western and Central UP, it will do better than expected in Eastern UP, where it maintains a strong base. Salim confirmed that the CPI(M) has not aligned with the SP in this election as it did in 2002 and is running 14 candidates on its own this time. He maintained that the UP election would have a significant impact on India's national politics. Salim refused to confirm that the LF would back the UPA in the 2009 elections, stating that the Communists would give serious consideration to a "third front." Salim NEW DELHI 00002140 002 OF 002 noted that the BJP has seriously inflated its chances in UP and estimated that it will "do slightly better or slightly worse," but there is no popular wave of support for Hindutva, as the people are in no mood for communal violence. Can Mayawati Cross the Line? -------------- ¶4. (C) While Indian exit polls are unreliable and of limited value, they have repeatedly indicated that the BSP will emerge from this election as the largest party in UP, which is the overwhelming consensus among UP watchers. The polling breaks down, however, when it attempts to provide accurate seat counts. The exit polls indicate that Mayawati will fall a good 70 seats short of a majority, and even with Congress support, she cannot make up such a huge deficit. Despite the polls, however, the pro BSP wave could propel Mayawati's BSP close enough to the required 202 seats to form the government. Salim's comments indicate that the CPI(M) is closely looking at the outcome of the UP election. If the BJP does not do well, this could lead LF leaders to conclude that there is no impending BJP wave, and they can then start giving serious consideration to a possible "third front" for the 2009 contest. While worried about a possible BJP revival, the UPA and its economic and foreign policies remain the number one target of Communist ire and fear. ¶5. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) PYATT