COMMUNISTS COPECETIC WITH UPA REGIONAL APPROACH,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000210 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PREF PINR KDEM IN PK BT BG NP, CE. SUBJECT: COMMUNISTS COPECETIC WITH UPA REGIONAL APPROACH, DIFFER SHARPLY ON USA Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Left Front (LF) and UPA are locked in agreement when it comes to South Asian regional policy, but differ sharply when it comes to the US and countries with which the US has disputes, such as Iran. In preparation for his January 13-14 Pakistan visit, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee provided foreign policy briefings to the CPI(M) on January 6 and to CPI Secretary D Raja on January 8. Raja told us he welcomed developments in Bhutan and Nepal, was pessimistic about trends in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and was in front of the GOI when it comes to cultivating friendly ties to Pakistan. Raja emphasized that real difficulties arise when it comes to foreign policy outside the region, especially regarding the Middle East, Iran, and Iraq, and relations with the US. Maintaining that many within Congress agree with the Communist stance, Raja reiterated that his party was in complete opposition to US and UPA policy in these areas. Raja is the hard edge of the LF and is not as media-savvy as the CPI(M) leadership, but his views are an accurate reflection of both the Communists and the Left wing of Congress, and indicates that PM Manmohan Singh faces stiff opposition from within the UPA when it comes to many foreign policy issues, especially the pace of US-India relations. End Summary. UPA Briefs Communists Twice -------------- ¶2. (U) Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee met with the leadership of India's Communist parties twice in preparation for PM Manmohan Singh's January 13-14 Pakistan visit. On January 6, Mukherjee met CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat and CPI(M) Politburo member Sitaram Yechury, and briefed CPI Secretary D. Raja on January 8. After the January 6 meeting, Yechury noted that "a discussion was held on the situation in neighboring countries, the developments out there and what should be our foreign policy....Our Foreign Minister is visiting the neighboring countries, so discussions were held on foreign policy." Yechury emphasized that the Left Front (LF) supported UPA efforts to improve India/Pakistan relations, intoning that "the talks with Pakistan are fine as long as the Indian government does not lower its guard." ¶3. (U) On January 8, Mukherjee delivered the same briefing to CPI Secretary D Raja. Raja emphasized after the meeting that "We discussed the situation in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Our party will support all efforts to improve the India-Pakistan relationship." Raja, who comes from Tamil Nadu, was particularly concerned about UPA policy regarding Sri Lanka. After the meeting, Raja pointed out that "the External Affairs Minister agreed with our stand that military actions are not a solution for the ethnic crisis in Sri Lanka...I requested him to provide all possible help to innocent Tamil civilians in the island nation." Raja Pleased with Regional Policy -------------- ¶4. (C) In a January 12 meeting, Raja told Poloff that he was NEW DELHI 00000210 002 OF 003 pleased that the UPA delivered high-level foreign policy briefings to the Communist leadership. During the one on one meeting, MEA Minister Mukherjee toured the entire South Asia region, with the exception of Afghanistan, with separate briefings on Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bhutan. Raja emphasized that there is general agreement between the Communist parties and Congress on regional policy. Raja was particularly pleased with GOI policy on Bhutan and Nepal, where he welcomed what he anticipated would be the end of monarchy in the two Himalayan kingdoms, and the integration of Maoists into a new government in Nepal. ¶5. (C) Raja was pessimistic, however, about developments in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, noting that the situation in Bangladesh has deteriorated and threatens democracy, while Sri Lanka is immersed in war. Raja pointed out that while the Sri Lankan Army (SLA) scored some gains in the East by using LTTE turncoat Colonel Karuna, it cannot win a military victory. He provided guarded praise to the LTTE for its dedication, pointing out that while the SLA destroyed the world famous Jaffna University Library, the LTTE made Jaffna University one of the finest in South Asia during its tenure. Raja expressed strong support for the UPA's efforts to improve relations with Pakistan, stating that the people in both countries are fed up with hostility and that there is no underlying reason for poor relations. He was adamant that while ISI supports terrorism directed against India, the Communists would continue to urge forbearance and patience. Should there be another spectacular terrorist attack such as Mumbai, he pointed out, the GOI would have no choice but to break off talks, but the Communists would not want anything further and would want to revive the process after a decent interval. But Disagrees With the UPA On the Rest of the World -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Turning to foreign policy outside the South Asian region, Raja became more animated and hostile. He claimed that, while the Congress leadership made the right noises on Iran, this was just to mollify the US, and that most within Congress agreed with the left when it came to Iran, Iraq and the Middle East. When it comes to Iran, he emphasized, the Communists are in total disagreement with the stated policies of Manmohan Singh, especially when it comes to Iranian nuclear policy. Becoming agitated, Raja remarked that, "India cannot dictate to Iran as to whether or not it can have a nuclear device, especially when the US and other Nuclear states under the NPT have not renounced their nuclear weapons." In his view, it was a mistake for India (but not China) to acquire nuclear weapons and it should give them up as well. Raja then asked rhetorically why Washington was not equally agitated about Israel's nuclear weapons. Raja argued that no matter what the UPA tells the US, the Communists and Congress agree that US policy regarding Iraq is wrong in its entirety, and that "history will judge George Bush and his government to be guilty of crimes against humanity in Iraq." Raja further claimed that the Communists were totally opposed to the UPA stance on US/India relations, and most especially the Civil Nuclear Agreement. He confirmed that the Communists would take a joint position in Parliament NEW DELHI 00000210 003 OF 003 demanding parliamentary approval for the pending 1-2-3 Agreement and suggested that they would welcome an opportunity to vote against it. Comment: CPI Is the Hard Edge of Communism -------------- ¶7. (C) When it comes to regional policy, Congress and the Communists are in a virtual love-fest of agreement, with the Communists even more eager for friendly relations with Pakistan than the GOI. Dedicated opponents of the BJP and its Pakistan-bashing policies, the Communists are always eager to use Pakistan to score points against the rightists. Disagreements crop up almost instantly, however, when it comes to other aspects of foreign policy. Raja is probably correct when he says that there is a large bloc within Congress that shares the same views on Iraq, Iran, the Middle East and even US/India relations with the Communists. Raja's CPI is the junior partner in a Left Front dominated by the CPI(M) and is a hard-line old-style Communist party that is incapable of presenting a moderate face like the more media-savvy CPI(M). Despite this, Communist antipathy against many Congress foreign-policy initiatives should not be underestimated. This underlies the difficulties Congress will face managing its foreign policy -- especially the pace of US-India relations -- while facing determined opposition from the LF and more subtle opposition from Communist "fellow travelers" within the party. ¶8. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) MULFORD