RUMINATIONS OF A BJP LEADER ON DOMESTIC POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001975 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR SCUL KDEM KISL IN SUBJECT: RUMINATIONS OF A BJP LEADER ON DOMESTIC POLITICS REF: A. NEW DELHI 1946 ¶B. NEW DELHI 1915 ¶C. NEW DELHI 1699 ¶D. NEW DELHI 1675 ¶E. NEW DELHI 1508 Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) On April 24, PolCouns met with former Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha, who is currently a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Rajya Sabha Member of Parliament. A party insider who is well-connected to the BJP leadership, Sinha spoke at some length on current Indian domestic politics. Sinha emphasized that the ongoing election in Uttar Pradesh (UP) has national implications and is being closely followed by every political party, including the BJP. He reinforced the consensus opinion that no party will be able to form the UP government on its own, but expressed pleasure at the BJP's performance, stating that it will give the front-running BSP a good run for its money and should be in the number two spot when the results are announced. Despite widespread speculation that the BJP is plotting with the Samajwadi Party (SP) to form the government after the elections (reftels), Sinha was adamant that the SP and BJP "are two opposite ends of the political spectrum and would not come together." He ruled out any post-poll alliance for the BJP, stating that the party was fully prepared to sit in the opposition if it cannot form the government on its own. Saying that "it all boils down to the numbers," Sinha pointed out that if the BSP wins over 150 seats and Congress 35-40, the two parties may be able to cobble together a government with the support of Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal and some independents. However, if the BSP, BJP and SP all end up with 100-125 seats, it may be impossible to form the government, forcing the GOI to declare President's rule to be followed by new elections within 6-8 months. One Eye on the Presidential Election -------------- ¶2. (C) Sinha maintained that India's major parties have begun to focus on the upcoming Presidential elections (to replace outgoing President Abdul Kalam.) While the BJP is "not averse" to keeping Kalam on for a second term, it has still not decided whether to put forward someone else. Sinha opined that the UPA is in "more trouble" when it comes to the Presidential race, as there are significant differences within the coalition on whom to back. While some coalition partners would like to stick with Kalam, Congress is opposed. One Eye on 2009 -------------- ¶3. (C) Sinha agreed with the growing consensus that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will not be the Congress flagbearer in the next election, as he has been unable to build a popular support base despite his three years in office. While Congress has begun looking at Rahul Gandhi as a possible candidate, the outcome of the UP election will determine whether he is fit. In Sinha's estimation, the BJP is "on an upswing," which started with the UP municipal elections. Party leaders are confident that the BJP will pull off victories in the upcoming Goa and Gujarat elections and be in a strong position to contest the national elections in 2009. According to Sinha, the BJP has not yet determined who will lead the party in the 2009 contest. Much will depend on the health of former Prime Minister AB Vajpayee and the "acceptability" of LK Advani to the NDA partners. Should these grand old men be ruled out, the BJP will go for someone from the "second generation" leadership, although Narendra Modi is no longer being considered. Comment - Good News and Bad News -------------- NEW DELHI 00001975 002 OF 002 ¶4. (C) Partisan politicians are known to put the best possible face on political trends. Sinha is no exception. Like many within the BJP, he is buoyed by repeated media reports that the party is surging. More objective political analysts are not so sanguine. They point out that the media (especially the English language media) tilts heavily towards the BJP and that much of the reporting is slanted. While the BJP is doing well in UP, some of the media reports and BJP statements regarding the final outcome seem optimistic. Likewise, despite its recent string of electoral victories, the party remains divided and has not been able to project a charismatic leader to replace the ailing Vajpayee. Without Vajapayee, who is among India's most popular politicians, the party will be handicapped. With Congress in the doldrums and growing unhappiness with Manmohan Singh's performance and lack of charisma, neither party is clearly dominant and the situation is not a straightforward as Sinha would have us believe. ¶5. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) KAESTNER