DELHI DIARY, APRIL 12-19

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001866 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM MNUC KUNR ETRD EPET KWMN BR UZ, IN SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, APRIL 12-19 Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from Embassy New Delhi for April 12-19, 2007 that did not feature in our other reporting, including: -- Third Phase of the Uttar Pradesh Election Completed -- The Saffron Crowd Finding a Home in the BJP Again -- Chief of Naval Operations Visit Gets Positive Reviews -- Half of India's Children Are Abused -- Brazil Positive on Nuke Deal -- India Still Backing G-4 UNSC Strategy -- "India Is Special" Says Uzbekistan -- Civil Servants Required to Report Menstrual Cycles? Third Phase of the Uttar Pradesh Election Completed -------------- ¶2. (U) Uttar Pradesh completed the third phase of its election on April 18 for 57 of the 403 seats in contention. The polling took place in the heavily Muslim Rohilkhand region (around the cities of Bareilly, Rampur and Pilibhit). Exit polls and election analysis by the pundits confirm that the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) of Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav is taking a beating. In the 2002 election, the SP won 26 seats in Rohilkhand. This time it is expected to win 10-14. Analysts point out that for the SP to hold on, it needed a heavy turnout, but only 50 percent of the voters showed up. In addition, the SP had to hold on to its united Muslim vote block. This also did not happen, as the Muslim vote was dispersed between a variety of parties. The BSP of former Chief Minister Mayawati continues to do well, with exit polls predicting that it will go from nine seats to 15-19. Likewise, the BJP is projected to increase from 13 to 20-24. Even the much-maligned Congress could increase from its current four seats to 4-8. With the SP doing so poorly, there is increasing speculation that it could slip to third place after the BJP. Analysts agree that no party will have a clear majority (a "hung assembly"). As the election draws to a close, there will be frenetic behind the scenes maneuvering to arrange a viable post-poll coalition. The Saffron Crowd Finding a Home in the BJP Again -------------- ¶3. (C) Press reports are rife with speculation that Hindutva firebrand Uma Bharati is about to wrap-up her less than successful political party (the Bhartiya Janshakti Party - Indian Peoples' Power Party) and return to the BJP. The �00A;reports have been spurred by her early April withdrawal of all candidates from the ongoing Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly elections. She was running several hundred MLA candidates and claimed that she withdrew from the race at the behest of the rabidly Hindutva Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), which asked her not to split the "Hindu" vote. Although BJP spokesman Ravi Shankar Prasad claims that "there was no move in this direction," political insiders are all but certain that Uma will rejoin the BJP fold. Her imminent reinduction and the increasing influence of the VHP portend a BJP return to its Hindutva roots. Uma's reinduction follows on the heels of the BJP's release of a controversial anti-Muslim DVD (reported septel) and a string of communal incidents in recent weeks, seen to be the work of the Sangh Parivar (family of Hindu organizations that make up the Hindutva wing of the BJP). Uma quickly moved to emphasize her Hindu communalist platform by again pledging to build the Ram temple in Ayodhya should the BJP return to power in UP. We will report on the growing power and influence of Hindutva extremists within the BJP septel. Chief of Naval Operations Visit Gets Positive Reviews -------------- ¶4. (SBU) DAO will report separately, but the initial public reaction to Chief of Naval Operations (CON) Admiral Mullen's visit has been positive. Noting U.S.-Japan-India cooperation in Malabar '07, which concluded earlier in the week, "The NEW DELHI 00001866 002 OF 003 Telegraph" said the CNO's explanation of the "Thousand-Ship Navy" was received by an approving Indian Navy whose response "was very positive." Media highlighted recent mil-to-mil developments, such as last week's Defense Joint Working Group, pointing out that since Indian naval ships escorted an American fleet in 2001 during Operation Enduring Freedom, India-U.S. naval ties have been on the leading edge of bilateral relations. Adm. Mullen departed New Delhi April 19 for Mumbai. Half of India's Children Are Abused -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The first National Study on Child Abuse, conducted jointly by UNICEF, Save the Children and Prayas was released last week by the Ministry of Women and Child Development. The sobering results report that 53% of children in India are victims of abuse, the majority of which is never reported. The survey ) reportedly the largest such survey ever conducted in the world - covered 13 states and a sample size of 12,446 children, 2,324 young adults and 2,449 stakeholders in both rural and urban areas. Andhra Pradesh had the highest percentage of almost all forms of abuse, followed by Assam, Bihar and Delhi. The &unexpected8 finding was that boys were as much at risk as girls. WMCD Minister Renuka Chowdhury said that the dismal level of awareness about sexual abuse among children necessitates mandatory sex education in school. Her statement came at a time when Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh banned sex education in school on the grounds that it is ¬ compatible with Indian culture.8 Chowdhury also said that she is working on an Offence Against Children (Prevention) Bill, expected to be brought before Parliament during the monsoon session. ¶6. (C) Comment: This is another step in the right direction. The survey results were widely carried by the media, demonstrating India,s increasing comfort in engaging in a national discussion about its dirty laundry. As expected, the knee-jerk reaction was to pass legislation. And, as expected, effective implementation remains to be seen. Embassy will watch and report on parliamentary discussions on this issue as it unfolds. End comment. Brazil Positive on Nuke Deal -------------- ¶7. (U) "We don't feel threatened in any way," regarding the Indo-U.S. civil nuclear agreement, Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim reportedly said after the third meeting of the India-Brazil Joint Commission April 13. Amorim, who was accompanied by a large, high-level delegation, visited New Delhi April 10-13 to co-chair the Joint Commission with Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, and to participate in talks with India, the U.S. and the European Union on Doha round negotiations. Amorim, who met the same day with Prime Minister Singh, said Brazil is envisaging sending a team from its national nuclear energy commission to New Delhi, noting that "having an agreement with India on science and technology provided an umbrella to start concrete action," according to press reports. Amorim was quoted by the press as saying that "New Delhi was committed to non-proliferation," and that Brazil was keeping the option of cooperation in peaceful uses of nuclear energy open, though it would have to take place in the framework of Brazil's agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency. India Still Backing G-4 UNSC Strategy -------------- ¶8. (U) The MEA further stated that the Brazil and India had "reaffirmed their commitment to the ongoing G-4 initiatives to closely coordinate efforts towards realizing the necessary expansion of the UN Security Council in both the permanent and non-permanent categories, including developing countries as new permanent members." Regarding efforts to enter the UN NEW DELHI 00001866 003 OF 003 as permanent members of the Security Council, Amorim stated to the press that he was, "very confident it will happen." "India Is Special" Says Uzbekistan -------------- ¶9. (U) "Let me be frank with you. We do not allow everybody to work with us in our key sectors. But India is special for us and you are welcome," said Uzbek Deputy Prime Minister Rustoma Azimov to visiting Indian Minister of State for Commerce Jairam Ramesh in Tashkent, according to local news reports. Ramesh and his counterpart co-chaired a session of the India-Uzbekistan Joint Commission. Ramesh stated that India was not interested in "exploiting Uzbekistan's natural wealth," but would be happy to train Uzbek engineers, geologists and(energy experts in Indian institutions to help develop the Uzbek oil and gas industry, according to "The Hindu." The newspaper cited diplomatic sources as saying that India was ready to assist in the development of Uzbekistan's gems and jewelry sector, and was looking for opportunities for gas exploration in the Bukhara-Khiva region, the Ferghana valley and southwest Uzbekistan. Indian investment in textiles, pharmaceuticals and leather goods would reportedly be welcomed by Uzbekistan. Civil Servants Required to Report Menstrual Cycles? -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Annual appraisals and health checks are mandatory in India,s civil service. When the 2007 appraisal forms were recently issued by the federal Ministry for Personnel, Public Grievances and Pensions, several women civil servants expressed shock and dismay to discover that the new rules required them to reveal details of their menstrual cycles. In addition, under a new national requirement, female officers were expected to report when they last sought maternity leave. One female civil servant told BBC she was &gobsmacked8 and others quickly agreed that the questions were uncalled for. ¶11. (C) Comment: Thankfully, several women civil servants publicly stated that the government has no need for this kind of personal information, protesting that the questions violated the right to privacy. The Ministry of Personnel decided to delete the controversial part of the form following an intervention by the Prime Minister, according to the BBC, which reported that the decision to scrap the question was made after Communist Party of India (Marxist) Member of Parliament and women's activist Brinda Karat led a delegation to PM Singh to complain about the matter. MULFORD