PRIME MINISTER WARM ON U.S.-INDIA-JAPAN TRILATERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001328 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM IN JA SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER WARM ON U.S.-INDIA-JAPAN TRILATERAL DIALOGUE; INDIAN SPEAKER CIRCUIT ALSO SUPPORTIVE Classified By: CDA Geoffrey Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary. PM Singh told Ashley Tellis he hoped a U.S.-India-Japan trilateral dialogue could become official at the Foreign Secretary level. The PM's comment seems to reflect a fairly broad sentiment in New Delhi, as recent public speakers have come out in support of closer trilateral ties. End Summary. -------------- Singh To Tellis: Support For Trilats At FS Level -------------- ¶2. (C) In his report to Emboffs on his private meeting with PM Singh on March 9, Ashley Tellis - in New Delhi to speak at the "Japan-India Strategic Partnership in the era of Asia Regional Integration" symposium sponsored by the Government of Japan and the Confederation of Indian Industry - described the Prime Minister as "very enthusiastic" in his support for U.S.-India-Japan trilateral dialogue. PM Singh described to Tellis his conversations with PM Abe, and said he hoped the trilateral dialogue could become official at the Foreign Secretary level. As we understand, Singh pointedly did not SIPDIS dwell on the substantive content of this trilateral dialogue. -------------- Tellis Makes The Case -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In addition to the Prime Minister, others on New Delhi's speaker circuit have come out within the last month in support of closer trilateral cooperation. In his remarks at the symposium described above, Tellis described why trilateral cooperation is desirable, why it is not, and what it can achieve. Calling Asia the new center of gravity in international politics, Tellis argued that trilateral cooperation would permit Asia's most important states that share values and common interests to shape the future of the continent in a way that protects and expands the Asian miracle; demonstrates that a diverse variety of partnerships and coalitions based on commonality of values and interests remains the best instrument for solving global problems; and creates the nucleus of cooperative arrangements that could evolve into a larger architecture for preserving peace, order and stability in Asia. However, he explained, trilateral cooperation should not be an a priori device for containing China, even though if successful it will have the objective consequence of shaping the strategic environment in ways that propel China to evolve in constructive directions. The trilat could not be a substitute for existing U.S. alliances, nor an instrument to subvert existing multilateral institutions, but if successful will be a stimulus that prods existing institutions to become more responsive in solving regional and global problems, he said. Trilateral cooperation can reconcile approaches to cope with global problems, such as developing a new nonproliferation consensus, or technical and institutional solutions to increased energy and raw material demands. It could also provide a means for coordinating strategic responses to critical emerging problems of Asian security that are vital to all three countries, such as protecting sea lanes of communication in the Indian Ocean or protecting space assets for defense and development. Finally, he argued, it could synchronize strategies to procure optimal outcomes within the NEW DELHI 00001328 002 OF 003 greater South Asia region, such as structuring economic assistance to secure desirable political outcomes, assist civil society and build institutions in support of democracy, or increase joint U.S.-Japanese-Indian research and development in key areas of mutual benefit including defense. -------------- Japanese and Indian speakers extol virtues of a tighter relationship -- including with the U.S. -------------- ¶4. (SBU) At the same symposium, Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Katsuhito Asano described FM Aso's vision of an "arc of freedom and prosperity along the outer rim of the Eurasian continent." At the center of that arc, India plays a pivotal role, according to Asano, in spreading freedom, democracy and prosperity. Asano and JICA President Sadako Ogata described the purposes of Japan's $2 billion ODA program for India, and stressed the significance of a future Japan-India Economic Partnership Agreement. Keio University professor Yoshihide Soeya maintained that close relations with India would aid U.S. and Japanese efforts "to hedge against an assertive China in the long run." ¶5. (SBU) India speakers struck many of the same themes. Former Foreign Secretary Amb. M.K. Rasgotra argued that, to avoid repeating Europe's history of centuries of warfare, the five great Asian powers (U.S., China, India, Japan and Russia) must seek a sustainable equilibrium, adding that the U.S. should be part of every major regional institution: EAS, SAARC, ASEAN. Rasgotra and Minister of State for Industry Ashwani Kumar outlined key areas for U.S.-Japan-India collaboration: protection of sea lanes (with a focus on the India Ocean's stability and security); energy security; and counter-terrorism. -------------- Joshi Alters His View -------------- ¶6. (C) Dr. Manoj Joshi, Strategic Affairs Editor of the Hindustan Times, who in October told Poloff he was skeptical of the benefits of a U.S.-India-Japan dialogue, wrote an editorial in the March 14 edition of The Mint entitled "Why India-Japan-US Alliance Makes Sense." Noting that India and Japan are moving to formalize strategic talks when Foreign Minister Mukherjee travels to Tokyo in late March, Joshi said the move for greater Japan-U.S.-India cooperation is seen as a concert of like-minded states which swear by democracy, secular values and the free market economy. The "churning process," as he describes changes in Asia's political arena, is not only occasioned by the rise of China, but also by Japan's new assertiveness in Asia. Quoting National Security Council advisory board chairman Rasgotra, Joshi noted that India is unlikely to participate in any alliance system, and characterized U.S.-India-Japan cooperation as necessary for maintaining political, economic and military equilibrium in Asia. -------------- Indian Army Seminar Seeks Balance Of Power In Asia -------------- ¶7. (C) At a seminar in late February put on by the Indian Army's Centre for Land Warfare Studies, a few critics of America's perceived dominance in Asia supported an Indian foreign policy which would hedge against China's rise. NEW DELHI 00001328 003 OF 003 Ambassador Prakash Shah called on India to bring the United States into a multipolar Asia, to include not only greater cooperation with Japan, but also with China. At the same seminar, Professor S.D. Muni, former Indian Ambassador to Laos, rebuked the remarks of Seema Mustafa, who singularly focused on the costs of India,s strategic alliance with the U.S., arguing for a fair review of its benefits as well. Muni urged the audience to objectively consider India's cooperation with Japan and the U.S., while cautioning against India,s entanglement in any architecture that seeks to contain China. C. Raja Mohan, in his keynote address, also urged greater trilateral cooperation, but within the context of India's future relations with China, which he characterized as inevitably involving a security dilemma. Raja underlined that "the military establishments of India, Japan, and China must engage in an honest, far-reaching dialogue to prevent conflict," adding "China's continued expansion in the neighborhood cannot be glossed over by diplomats." PYATT