GOI "VERY UNEASY" ABOUT RECENT EVENTS IN BANGLADESH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001302

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL BG CE IN
SUBJECT: GOI "VERY UNEASY" ABOUT RECENT EVENTS IN BANGLADESH


Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: External Affairs Minister Pranab
Mukherjee's recent visit to Dhaka was "excellent," according
to Joint Secretary Mohan Kumar. Chief Adviser of the
Caretaker Government Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed received high marks
from the GOI with Kumar noting that, "He talks like us. He's
brilliant." However, Kumar admitted that the GOI is very
uneasy about the medium term political prospects in Dhaka, as
it was made clear to the GOI delegation that the military is
ready to "shed the fig leaf of civilian rule, commission a
National Security Council and stay in power for the next
two-three years." Commenting on future elections in a
conversation with FM Mukherjee, Dr. Ahmed stated pointedly,
"I will not be able to give you a date." Kumar theorized
that the Caretaker Government's four phase plan to a new
civilian government has stalled with potential leader
Muhammed Yunus flopping with the public and within government
circles. Kumar worriedly hypothesized that the political
vacuum created by the gutting of the two major parties (Awami
League and Bangladesh National Party) with no new civilian
leader on the horizon presents an ideal breeding ground for
radical Islamists. END SUMMARY.

-------------- GOI gives high marks to Chief Adviser Ahmed --------------


2. (C) Ministry of External Affairs Joint Secretary
(Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Burma) Mohan Kumar told
Polcouns in a 15 March meeting that his 19 February one-day
trip to Dhaka with External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee
was very successful. He declared that, despite the fact that
Chief Adviser Fakhruddin Ahmed and the ministers in the
Caretaker Government were "clearly not free agents", the
Bangladeshis were saying all of the right things to Mukherjee
regarding bilateral relations. "Most importantly," Kumar
noted, "he (Ahmed) is the first Bangladeshi leader to admit
that there are terrorist cells in Bangladesh with designs
against India. This is unheard of in our bilateral
relationship." Characterizing Ahmed as "brilliant," Kumar
observed that, "he reminds me a lot of our Planning
Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Aluwahlia. However," he
remarked, "let us not delude ourselves. The ARMY is clearly
in charge." Kumar said that the Mukherjee visit underlined
"the potential to greatly improve bilateral relations--in the
short term, at least." He noted that the Caretaker
Government is "keen to come to the SAARC Summit to prove
their legitimacy," as it gains more confidence and, he
predicted, will begin to assert itself more publicly.

-------------- Clouds on the horizon --------------


3. (C) Voicing concern about Bangladesh's future, he
cautioned that, "the Caretaker Government may be courting
disaster in the medium term." He postulated that the
Caretaker Government envisioned a four-point plan for the
transition of Bangladeshi politics that included the military
takeover, a campaign to wipe out corruption and clean up the
electoral process, the exile of Sheikh Hasina (Awami League)
and Khaleda Zia (Bangladesh National Party),and welcome a
new party headed by a wildly popular former Nobel Laureate
winner Muhammed Yunus to lead the government. However, he
lamented, the plan came apart when Yunus flopped as a popular
leader with the public and within the governing elite. He
conjectured that Yunus's lack of popularity has forced the
Caretaker Government to reassess its role. "They feel that
they can no longer make an early exit," and leave a political
vacuum. Kumar forecasted that the National Security Council
is coming to rule the country for two-three years, giving
rise to radical elements, as the population rejects an
extended period of military rule. Backing up his statement,
Kumar declared that Chief Adviser Ahmed stated "with steely
resolve" that, "I will not be able to give you a date," when
asked by Mukherjee about a time frame for holding elections.
Kumar further speculated that the Caretaker's government goal
of exile for both Zia and Hasina "may not be in the best

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interests of the country. Like them or not, they are
Bangladesh's only civilian leaders, and at least they aren't
radical." With no other public figures ready to take the
reins and rally the public, he hinted that perhaps a leave of
absence for the ladies, as opposed to outright exile, while
the political parties are cleansed may be best. "If the two
parties are destroyed, the only major political party left
will be Jamaat-e-Islami, and that may not be good for
anybody."



4. (C) COMMENT: Ahmed has bought a short honeymoon with
India, particularly by acknowledging anti-Indian terrorist
cells operating out of Bangladesh. But, as FM Mukherjee told
Ahmed, India "would like to see elections sooner rather than
later." It was no secret that India privately welcomed the
demise of the BNP, but Kumar signaled that that India is only
willing to allow a short rope for the Caretaker Government.
The Indian interest, according to contacts, is for the least
radical, least anti-Indian element to come to power in Dhaka.


While the Caretaker Government, and specifically Ahmed, has
charmed the GOI so far, officials such as Kumar as queasy
about the term of the current administration extending beyond
the short term. END COMMENT.


5. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy/Dhaka.
PYATT