GOI "VERY UNEASY" ABOUT RECENT EVENTS IN BANGLADESH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001302 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2027 TAGS: PGOV PREL BG CE IN SUBJECT: GOI "VERY UNEASY" ABOUT RECENT EVENTS IN BANGLADESH Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B and D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee's recent visit to Dhaka was "excellent," according to Joint Secretary Mohan Kumar. Chief Adviser of the Caretaker Government Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed received high marks from the GOI with Kumar noting that, "He talks like us. He's brilliant." However, Kumar admitted that the GOI is very uneasy about the medium term political prospects in Dhaka, as it was made clear to the GOI delegation that the military is ready to "shed the fig leaf of civilian rule, commission a National Security Council and stay in power for the next two-three years." Commenting on future elections in a conversation with FM Mukherjee, Dr. Ahmed stated pointedly, "I will not be able to give you a date." Kumar theorized that the Caretaker Government's four phase plan to a new civilian government has stalled with potential leader Muhammed Yunus flopping with the public and within government circles. Kumar worriedly hypothesized that the political vacuum created by the gutting of the two major parties (Awami League and Bangladesh National Party) with no new civilian leader on the horizon presents an ideal breeding ground for radical Islamists. END SUMMARY. -------------- GOI gives high marks to Chief Adviser Ahmed -------------- ¶2. (C) Ministry of External Affairs Joint Secretary (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Burma) Mohan Kumar told Polcouns in a 15 March meeting that his 19 February one-day trip to Dhaka with External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee was very successful. He declared that, despite the fact that Chief Adviser Fakhruddin Ahmed and the ministers in the Caretaker Government were "clearly not free agents", the Bangladeshis were saying all of the right things to Mukherjee regarding bilateral relations. "Most importantly," Kumar noted, "he (Ahmed) is the first Bangladeshi leader to admit that there are terrorist cells in Bangladesh with designs against India. This is unheard of in our bilateral relationship." Characterizing Ahmed as "brilliant," Kumar observed that, "he reminds me a lot of our Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Aluwahlia. However," he remarked, "let us not delude ourselves. The army is clearly in charge." Kumar said that the Mukherjee visit underlined "the potential to greatly improve bilateral relations--in the short term, at least." He noted that the Caretaker Government is "keen to come to the SAARC Summit to prove their legitimacy," as it gains more confidence and, he predicted, will begin to assert itself more publicly. -------------- Clouds on the horizon -------------- ¶3. (C) Voicing concern about Bangladesh's future, he cautioned that, "the Caretaker Government may be courting disaster in the medium term." He postulated that the Caretaker Government envisioned a four-point plan for the transition of Bangladeshi politics that included the military takeover, a campaign to wipe out corruption and clean up the electoral process, the exile of Sheikh Hasina (Awami League) and Khaleda Zia (Bangladesh National Party),and welcome a new party headed by a wildly popular former Nobel Laureate winner Muhammed Yunus to lead the government. However, he lamented, the plan came apart when Yunus flopped as a popular leader with the public and within the governing elite. He conjectured that Yunus's lack of popularity has forced the Caretaker Government to reassess its role. "They feel that they can no longer make an early exit," and leave a political vacuum. Kumar forecasted that the National Security Council is coming to rule the country for two-three years, giving rise to radical elements, as the population rejects an extended period of military rule. Backing up his statement, Kumar declared that Chief Adviser Ahmed stated "with steely resolve" that, "I will not be able to give you a date," when asked by Mukherjee about a time frame for holding elections. Kumar further speculated that the Caretaker's government goal of exile for both Zia and Hasina "may not be in the best NEW DELHI 00001302 002 OF 002 interests of the country. Like them or not, they are Bangladesh's only civilian leaders, and at least they aren't radical." With no other public figures ready to take the reins and rally the public, he hinted that perhaps a leave of absence for the ladies, as opposed to outright exile, while the political parties are cleansed may be best. "If the two parties are destroyed, the only major political party left will be Jamaat-e-Islami, and that may not be good for anybody." ¶4. (C) COMMENT: Ahmed has bought a short honeymoon with India, particularly by acknowledging anti-Indian terrorist cells operating out of Bangladesh. But, as FM Mukherjee told Ahmed, India "would like to see elections sooner rather than later." It was no secret that India privately welcomed the demise of the BNP, but Kumar signaled that that India is only willing to allow a short rope for the Caretaker Government. The Indian interest, according to contacts, is for the least radical, least anti-Indian element to come to power in Dhaka. While the Caretaker Government, and specifically Ahmed, has charmed the GOI so far, officials such as Kumar as queasy about the term of the current administration extending beyond the short term. END COMMENT. ¶5. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy/Dhaka. PYATT