BELLWETHER PROJECT: UTTAR PRADESH ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 001274 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI ECON KISL KDEM KCRM IN SUBJECT: BELLWETHER PROJECT: UTTAR PRADESH ELECTION UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE POLITICAL OR ECONOMIC STABILITY REF: A. NEW DELHI 000975 ¶B. NEW DELHI 000973 ¶C. NEW DELHI 007824 ¶D. NEW DELHI 000976 NEW DELHI 00001274 001.2 OF 005 Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The crucial state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) is facing an election in April and May 2007 that could displace the current Samajwadi Party (SP) government. Although the political situation in UP is fluid and changing rapidly, there was a consensus on a number of key points during a mid-March visit. The UP political situation is complicated by the fact that there are four contenders for power-- two dominant regional parties (SP and BSP) and two aspiring national parties (BJP and Congress). This situation is further complicated by the almost total enmeshing of caste politics, corruption, and criminality. ¶2. (C) Our interlocutors agreed that the likely outcome is a "hung assembly" with no clear winner. In such a scenario, a protracted period of "horse-trading" in which political parties indulge in complex negotiations to construct a majority would begin. Even if a ruling coalition is formed, it is likely to be fractious, unstable, and short-lived. Unfortunately for the people of UP, this instability will continue to distract the state's politicians, killing any chance that progress will be made on issues such as strengthening law and order, meeting basic needs,growing the economy, or expanding sorely needed infrastructure. End Summary. Taking The Temperature -------------- ¶3. (SBU) New Delhi's POL and ECON sections, along with the Consulates, will continue to take the economic and political temperature of key states over the next year as part of our bellwether series. Such snapshots will give us a better sense of how local trends affect national politics, and ultimately, US foreign policy goals. Uttar Pradesh (UP),one of the "bellwether" states, is facing a highly contentious state election in April and May 2007. On March 6-9, Poloffs and POL FSN traveled to eastern UP to the cities of Lucknow, Allahabad, and Varanasi. Poloffs met with a cross-section of political leaders, journalists, and academics. We hope these reports will give Washington readers better insight into the vast India outside Delhi's Ring Road and the economic, security and social trends that will determine where India is headed over the long run. A Four Way Contest -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The UP political situation is complicated by the fact that there are four contenders for power--two dominant regional parties (SP and BSP) and two aspiring national parties (BJP and Congress) that would like to return to power in Lucknow. Because of the parliamentary system and the large number of players, there are many possible combinations or coalitions that can be constructed to form the government. NEW DELHI 00001274 002.2 OF 005 ¶5. (C) This situation is further complicated by the almost total lack of principles and ideology in UP. Interlocutors confirmed that the political slide in UP has gone so far that development and poverty alleviation are simply not considered. Instead, parties construct complicated caste, religious and regional equations that they hope will provide that sought-after majority on election day. In UP, politics has become a matter of money, "muscle power", and powerful personality cults, as it is common to use bribery and intimidation to win elections. Criminal mafias are now so deeply entrenched in UP as to be virtually indistinguishable from political parties. The BJP--Perhaps Overconfident -------------- ¶6. (C) In a March 6 meeting with Poloff, BJP President and UP MLA from Allahabad Kesri Nath Tripathi exuded confidence, asserting that the BJP would emerge from the election as UP's largest party (with what they hope will be approximately 140 seats in a 403 seat assembly). Tripathi confirmed that a recent string of BJP victories-the UP municipal elections (reftel C),Uttarakhand state elections (reftel A),and Punjab state elections (reftel B),as well as an expected sweep in the upcoming Delhi municipal elections--are evidence that the BJP is riding a wave of political popularity that will become evident in UP. Tripathi also confirmed that his party would take full advantage of the inflation issue while conceding that Congress and BJP economic policies are almost identical and that the BJP has no policy to control inflation. ¶7. (C) Although Tripathi was confident that the BJP tally of MLAs would increase from the present 88 to around 140, he refused to speculate as to where the BJP would pick up the remaining 60 MLAs needed to form the government. He also reiterated that the BJP would make "Islamization of policies" (appeasement of Muslims) and the need to combat "terrorism" and alleged infiltration of UP by radical Muslims the central planks of its election campaign. Congress-- Reeling But Realistic -------------- ¶8. (C) Congress interlocutors, stung by recent electoral losses, were downbeat and more realistic than the BJP. Poloff spoke with several of the behind-the-scenes "moneymen" and "political fixers" and one MLA candidate. All agreed that Congress had no chance of moving up from last place. However, they were quietly confident that Congress would increase its tally of MLAs from the current 15 to between 40 and 60. In addition, they confirmed that Congress was finalizing the creation of a "Congress front" of "secular parties" that they hope could reconfigure UP politics. ¶9. (SBU) The new front is to consist of Congress and the Jan Morcha party of former Prime Minister VP Singh, the RLD of powerful Jat leader Ajit Singh, and some 15 small parties, including the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the CPI. Congress interlocutors, as well as the UP head of the NCP, were confident that this new configuration could win as many NEW DELHI 00001274 003.2 OF 005 as 100 seats, and make the Congress a real player again in UP politics. A Fight to the Finish -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Wily and embattled SP Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav is in a battle for survival and is determined to hang on whatever it takes. He cannot afford to lose this election, as his opponents would move to destroy him and his party as soon as they took the reins of power. ¶11. (C) All agreed that the ruling SP is in serious trouble, will lose seats in the upcoming election and faces the likely prospect of losing power. All agreed, however, CM Mulayam is the state's craftiest politician and can never be counted out. Interlocutors confirmed that the SP was using a bag of "dirty tricks" to influence the election. These include: -- Paying large sums in monthly payments to much of the Congress state leadership to "throw the election" and prevent Congress from mobilizing. -- Paying large sums to individuals to run on BSP tickets-- with the provision that they will purposefully lose their contests and allow SP candidates to win (individuals can "purchase" BSP tickets by paying several million rupees directly to BSP President Mayawati). -- As it has in the past, SP is working with mafia groups to incite communal riots in different locations around the state. It will then step in to "restore order" and "protect" Muslims from Hindu extremists, thereby winning the crucial "Muslim" vote. -- SP routinely tells its followers that the USG and Congress are working together to unseat Mulayam's government in Lucknow and prosecute a "war against Islam". Mulayam purportedly takes great pride in depicting himself as the one man who successfully "stands up" to Sonia Gandhi and the USG. ¶12. (C) Several interlocutors maintained Mulayam has subverted the UP local administration by putting political operatives and "SP goons" in charge. These officials are purportedly expected to produce SP victories in their districts on election day. However, Mulayam has suffered a setback, as the election commissioner is taking a pro-active role to endure fair and free elections and frustrate SP plans. The Election Commission of India has replaced the state police chief, for example, with a man known to be free of SP influence, and plans to transfer at least 200 local officials prior to the elections. The ECI has also broken polling into seven tranches to try to ensure fairness. BSP - No Longer Heir Apparent -------------- ¶13. (C) Just several weeks ago (reftel D) the BSP was clearly identified as the party that would form the next government in UP. Our contacts agreed that, for a number of reasons, this has changed and a BSP victory is now much less NEW DELHI 00001274 004.2 OF 005 likely. -- BSP Party Chief Mayawati's greed and over-confidence led her to "sell" BSP tickets to the highest bidder (who paid the money directly to her). As a result, many BSP candidates are not credible and cannot win. -- The BJP resurgence has undercut Mayawati's strategy to recruit the Brahmins into her party. Many are now expected to remain with the BJP. -- The growing popularity of the BJP will cut into the BSP seat count and make the outcome less certain. ¶14. (C) Despite this, many interlocutors remained confident that the BSP will still emerge as the state's largest party. It may, however, have a more difficult time crafting a post-election majority - as it must contend with the BJP. Comment - Continued Instability and Poor Governance -------------- -------------- ¶15. (SBU) There was a consensus in UP that the complex four-way electoral contest is not going to produce a stable government in Lucknow. All agreed that there would be a "hung assembly" as no clear winner will emerge. Instead, the BSP, BJP, and SP could each emerge with approximately 100 seats, while a newly-constructed "Congress front" could bag as many as 80 seats. In such a scenario, the election would merely open up a protracted period of "horse-trading" in which political parties indulge in complex negotiations to construct a majority. Two Likely Possibilities -------------- ¶16. (C) Most agreed that a BSP government is most likely to come to power with the support of the Congress front. Congress interlocutors and Congress allies confirmed that such an arrangement was "very likely". This is the only way that Congress can return to power in Lucknow in this election-- as the BJP and SP are both implacable enemies of Congress and are in the opposition in New Delhi. Cocktail chatter in Delhi indicates Sonia Gandhi has assured Mayawati of relief from investigations of the Taj Corridor scam if the BSP joins Congress to govern UP. ¶17. (C) Surprisingly, there is growing talk in UP political circles that the SP may go for broke by abandoning its Muslim vote bank and forging a permanent alliance with the BJP to retain power. This would be a major political shift in Lucknow. Muslims would view the move as a betrayal and abandon the SP. Mulayam, as a man of no principles, would be willing to jettison his Muslim supporters to win a powerful BJP ally. Such an arrangement would mirror developments in Delhi, as the SP would be welcomed into the BJP/NDA alliance. A growing SP/BJP nexus is apparently one of the worst-kept secrets in UP, as it appeared to be common knowledge among SIPDIS the political cognoscenti. They pointed to alleged BJP/SP collusion to incite recent communal riots and the SP government's recent bankrolling of expensive RSS/VHP NEW DELHI 00001274 005.2 OF 005 conclaves in Allahabad and Lucknow as evidence that the two parties have become quite cozy and are planning to form the next government if they get the chance. Nasty, Brutish, and Short -------------- ¶18. (C) Despite all the Machiavellian political maneuvering in UP, almost everyone agrees that the state's political set-up is so shaky that no stable government will emerge. There is growing speculation that the electoral outcome will be such a badly "hung-up" assembly that no party will be able to form a government within the 30-day period prescribed by the Constitution. In that case, the President could intervene, dismiss the UP government, and call for new elections in six months. If so, these elections would merely be a prelude. ¶19. (C) Even if some BSP/Congress or BJP/SP combination is crafted to form a government, few expect it to last more than one or two years. The pundits are already predicting that there will be new elections before or at the same time as the 2009 parliamentary elections. No one expects political stability to return to troubled UP. Instead, UP can expect continued turmoil, poor governance, and a lack of development for the immediate future. Pity its unfortunate citizens. End Comment. ¶20. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) PYATT