CHAD: FIGHTING CONTINUES BETWEEN ANT AND RFC

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000933 SIPDIS SIPDIS PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2012 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF SD CD SUBJECT: CHAD: FIGHTING CONTINUES BETWEEN ANT AND RFC REF: NDJAMENA 920 Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Lucy Tamlyn for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Fighting continues in the Biltine area between the Chadian army (ANT) and the RFC rebel group. Cut off from supply lines in the Sudan, the RFC may not be able to survive a siege. On the other hand, coordinated action between the RFC and the UFDD could pull the ANT away and prolong the battle. Given the tenuous security situation, it is surprising that President Deby has apparently decided to attend the Lisbon EU/Africa Summit. End summary. ¶2. (C) The fighting in eastern Chad has not abated. On December 3 and 4 President Deby's forces battled the RFC led by Timan Erdimi, a fellow member of the Zaghawa inner circle, and former Director of the President's Civil Cabinet. The fighting is taking place in and around the Massif de Kapka - a mountainous region north-east of Biltine. While casualties do not appear to be as high as those incurred in the battles against the UFDD in late November, the battle is primarily Zaghawa on Zaghawa. Two weeks after the battles started, over twenty members of the US-trained Pan-Sahel Initiative (PSI) unit are dead. One PSI battalion has been in the east since the onset of the fighting; the other PSI battalion remains in N'Djamena. President Deby is still at the front but his Minister of Plan informed the World Bank Representative in N'Djamena that the President intended to participate in the December 8-9 EU/Africa summit in Lisbon. (Comment: this travel has not been officially divulged by the government. End comment). ¶3. (SBU) Former Defense Minister Mahamat Nour is still residing in the Libyan Embassy. It is believed that many of Nour's FUC rebel group will head towards the front as a consequence of Nour's change of situation, but large scale defections or theft of vehicles has not been witnessed (at least in N'Djamena). UFDD Rebel leader Mahamat Nouri has called for an inclusive dialogue to include President Deby, the political opposition and the armed opposition. The opposition coalition CPDC has made the same call. President Deby's Infrastructure Minister (and primary negotiator with rebel groups),Adam Younousmi rejected the call for dialogue, saying that all the agreements needed had already been signed. Comment: ¶4. (C) Erdimi's RFC, cut off from supply lines in the Sudan, may not be able to survive an ANT siege in the Kapka mountains. On the other hand, coordinated action between the RFC and the UFDD could pull the ANT away and prolong the battle. It is not clear whether these groups will be able to go back to Sudan for a breather; the International Red Cross Representative (please protect) told CDA that the rebel groups had indeed been told to move out of Darfur by the Sudanese government. ¶5. (C) The round of fighting which started on November 26 is proving to be the fiercest and longest bout seen in recent years. It is also straining the Zaghawa clan social fabric. The President canceled his recent trip to the United States ostensibly because of the break out in fighting. If confirmed, his decision to travel to Lisbon could be a risky one given the security situation still prevailing. ¶6. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. TAMLYN