CHAD: JEM EXPLAINS ARAB ALLIANCE AND WARNS OF

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000903 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPKO PGOV PHUM CD SU SUBJECT: CHAD: JEM EXPLAINS ARAB ALLIANCE AND WARNS OF VIOLENCE REF: A. NDJAMENA 0784 ¶B. KHARTOUM 1807 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Representatives of the Khalil Ibrahim-led wing of the Sudan Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) met with Emboffs November 19 to announce a new JEM/Arab alliance, explain the defects of the Sirte meeting and warn of future armed conflict in Darfur and Kordofan. End summary. JEM REPORTS NEW ALLIANCE WITH DARFUR ARABS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a November 19 meeting with CDA and other embassy officers, Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) Chief Negotiator Ahmed Tugod Lissan (representing the Khalil Ibrahim wing) reported that recent JEM-led meetings had been successful on organizational and political fronts. The meetings brought together a number of Arab communities which were now willing to become part of the JEM movement. These Arab groups included the Mahamit, Mahariyya, Habatia (phonetic),Ireigat and Salamat. No signed document existed, but talks were ongoing and the groups had indicated that they were ready for "tribal reconciliation." Lissan explained that the Arab tribes finally understand that the Government of Sudan did not respect peace agreements and that it had used them for their own interests. He stated that the alliance between Khartoum and the Janjaweed has "collapsed" and that the Government of Sudan was now seriously in danger of "losing Darfur." Lissan also asked for U.S. support to visit New York to express the group's views to the United Nations Security Council. FLAWS AT SIRTE -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Lissan stated that he was in Chad to discuss the ongoing Sirte negotiations with Chadian authorities (and explain why JEM/Khalil was not in Sirte.) Lissan stated that the JEM/Khalil faction would not attend Sirte because - to their mind - the UN/AU leadership had fallen for the Sudanese strategy of giving a voice to every group, including those without any forces on the ground. The groups represented in Sirte were all creations of the Sudanese government, and the Libyans had cooperated with the Sudanese in bringing them to Sirte. Special Envoy Andrew Natsios' invitation for all to attend had "created a new crisis." ¶4. (SBU) Lissan reiterated that negotiations needed to be confined to JEM and well-defined factions of the SLA. Other would-be players needed to decide which of these groups they belonged to and return to those groups if they wanted to be part of the peace process. For the peace process to succeed, the mediation team needed to focus on the people on the ground, and sit down with the non-signatories. Lissan downplayed the rifts in the JEM and ascribed rebel disunity to Government of Sudan manipulation. Queried as to locations which he thought propitious for peace talks, Lissan stated that Libya as a venue could still be acceptable; South Africa was too far away; Eritrea was out of the question. Lissan complained that the SPLM meeting in Juba was "like a market" - everyone was there - including representatives of Mini Minawi. VIOLENCE AHEAD -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Lissan forecast that in the coming weeks or months there would be "a total change on the ground" in Darfur and a collapse of relations between the Government of Sudan and the Janjaweed. Violence would escalate and reach as far as the Chinese-run oil fields in Kordofan. When asked if UNAMID would affect circulation of Sudanese rebels, Lissan said he doubted that the Government of Sudan will ever allow a large number of troops to come into Darfur. He said that on November 18, the President of Sudan announced a "jihad" against the UN Peacekeepers. He also alleged that there were contacts between the GoS and the AMIS attackers in Haskanitas. Comment: ¶6. (SBU) Lissan's comments on a return to war echo Khalil Ibrahim's statements in a BBC interview in September. JEM's position on the key negotiators in the conflict has remained the same (reftel A). We are not able to comment on a possible JEM/Arab alliance. TAMLYN