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Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NDJAMENA877
2007-11-13 08:22:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ndjamena
Cable title:  

PRESIDENT DEBY SIGNS "THE LAST PEACE AGREEMENT"

Tags:   PGOV  PREL  PHUM  PTER  CD 
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VZCZCXRO4430
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHNJ #0877/01 3170822
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 130822Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5878
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
						C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000877 

SIPDIS

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SIPDIS

PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PTER CD
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT DEBY SIGNS "THE LAST PEACE AGREEMENT"

REF: A. NDJAMENA 792

B. TRIPOLI 918

C. NDJAMENA 870

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES LUCY TAMLYN FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D)



1. (C) Summary. President Deby signed what he called "the
last peace agreement" with the remaining Chadian rebel groups
at large in Libya on October 25. The formation of a new
Government is still expected but other events (in particular,
the Zoe's Ark Affair) have taken up government attention.
This last agreement, however imperfect, may mark the end of
the cycle of rebellion that started in 2004/5. End summary.



2. (U) On October 25, President Deby traveled to Libya to
sign what he called "the last peace agreement" with the four
rebel groups comprising Timan Erdimi's Rassemblement de
Forces Pour le Changement (RFC), Mahamat Nouri's Union des
Forces pour la Democraties et le Developpment (UFFD),
Abdelwahid About's UFFD-Fondamental and Hassan Saleh
al-Djinedi's Concorde National Tchadienne (CNT). Libyan
President Quaddafi and Sudanese President el Bechir witnessed
the signing. Similar to other agreements signed in recent
months (reftel A), the agreement offers the rebels amnesty
and integration into the armed and civil services. For their
part, the rebels agree to a cease-fire and to respect the
constitution, and remain in specified cantonment areas until
disarmed.



3. (U) In the one area that the accord differs significantly
from those signed with other groups, Libya and Sudan are the
guarantors of the cantonment and disarmament. Article 7
states that rebel forces will remain in their current
positions while awaiting integration in the Chadian national
army (French acronym ANT). Sudan, Libya and Chad undertake
to cover the expenses of the rebel troops until they are
either demobilized or integrated into the ANT. The actual
rebel locations have not been made known.



4. (U) Rebel leaders reportedly assumed that the agreement
signed was the same as that signed in early October (reftel
A). They claimed that they discovered, after signing, that
certain elements were surpressed, namely the creation of a
military commission and an annex which was supposed to
provide detail on government posts and security. Speaking on
Radio France International (RFI) the rebel leaders groused
about the changes, but claimed that they didn't want to
create a scandal and upset the signing ceremony. The
President's own comments to RFI were unequivocal: this was
the last peace agreement that he would sign. Henceforth, any
country that sought to destabilize Chad by providing support
to rebel movements would find itself at war with Chad.



5. (U) Close to three weeks after the signing, there has
been no word on any demobilization or integration. Observers
who have witnessed the difficulties of the FUC reintegration
are pessimistic that the ANT can manage a new wave of rebel
integration. UN security services reported that there
continued to be rumors of rebel troop movements as recently
as November 5 in the Adre and Birak area. The new
government, widely anticipated since August, has yet to be
named, although in a meeting with the Director of the
President's Civil Cabinet on October 26, the latter informed
the Charge that the announcement would come soon. Other
events, such as the Zoe's Ark Affair (reftel C) have
monopolized the President's attention. Most Chadians are
waiting to see what actually transpires in terms of troop
reintegration or political participation before conceding
that the agreement was more than an "empty show."

COMMENT: ENDING WITH A WHIMPER?



6. (C) With the latest peace agreement, President Deby has
concluded a grand sweep of agreements with rebel groups large
and small, obscure and well known. That money played some
part in reaching these agreements is generally believed to be
the case. Principles (if any) were harder to find. If Deby
himself made any concessions, they are not evident. At the
end of the day, the rebels found themselves with little
choice but to sue for peace. The imminent arrival of the UN
and European forces (MINURCAT) limited their ability to move
in the arena; their foreign patrons Libya and Sudan exerted
strong pressure on them to come to the table. And President
Deby outspent them on arms and material.



7. (C) The roots of the current cycle of rebellion can be
found in the years 2004 and 2005, when President Deby made
clear that he would renege on his promise of presidential
term limits, and the prospect of new oil wealth dizzied the
imagination of ambitious relatives and senior GOC officials.

NDJAMENA 00000877 002 OF 002


Some of these disgruntled former colleagues may return to
Chad. But it is widely believed that former Defense Minister
Mahamat Nouri and former Cabinet Director Erdimi cannot
return and save face right now. President Deby has outfoxed
his opponents once again: although the lingering presence of
disgruntled and undemobilized soldiers will continue to
bedevil and destabilize the border area, this cycle of
rebellion may in fact have run out of gas. But despite
Deby's pronouncements, we doubt it is the last one.

TAMLYN