UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000792

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR AF/C, PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL LY GB BN CD
SUBJECT: PEACE ACCORDS MULTIPLY WITH FRINGE CHAD REBEL
GROUPS

REF: A. NDJAMENA 751

B. COTONOU 779


1. (SBU) Summary. Five minor Chadian rebel/exile groups have
signed generic peace agreements with the Government of Chad
(GOC) in the last two weeks. The agreements include amnesty
for rebels and a commitment to integrate rebel forces into
the Chadian army and civil service. Negotiations in Tripoli
with the two major rebel groups belonging to Mahamat Nouri
and Timan Erdimi appear to be making headway, but are not as
advanced. Local commentators are deeply skeptical of the
trustworthiness of any party to these agreements, and believe
that it is only a matter of time before new challenges to the
regime will arise. End summary.

SIGNING CEREMONY IN NDJAMENA MARKS PEACE WITH ARAB GROUP


2. (U) On October 1, the diplomatic community was invited to
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to witness the signing of a
peace agreement between the Government of Chad (represented
by Minister of Infrastructure Adam Younousmi) and Ali Ahmat
Akbach, President of the CDRT (Chadian Democratic and
Revolutionary Council). (Comment: the CDRT is a Rachid Arab
group based in Batha whose origins date back to the early
eighties. End comment.) Chadian Intelligence Chief Chaibo
was also present on the podium. Libyan Foreign Minister
Treiki witnessed the signing, and both parties acknowledged
the support of Libyan mediation in reaching the agreement.
The twelve articles of the accord call for a cease-fire,
exchange of prisoners, a general amnesty and for the
cantonment and disarmament of CDRT forces (said to number
some 100). The CDRT is free to become a recognized political
party if it wishes, and CDR cadres are to be integrated into
the Chadian army or civil service. Minister Younousmi was
fulsome in his praise of Libyan President Ghaddafi and
Libya's efforts to assist Chadian national reconciliation.

CONFLICTING REPORTS OF AGREEMENTS IN TRIPOLI


3. (U) Two days later an agreement was reported on Radio
France International (RFI) between the Government and four
rebel groups in Tripoli: RFC, CNT, UFDD and UFDD
Fondamentale. Of these four, however, only UFDD Fondamentale

(led by Arab leader and former Ambassador to the United
States Acheikh Ibn Oumar) hewed to the government line that a
decisive peace agreement had been signed. In subsequent
reports the "signature" was downgraded to "initialing;" the
agreement itself was apparently only for a three week
cease-fire during which time negotiations would take place.
UFDD leader Mahamat Nouri (former Defense Minister) told the
media that "the struggle still continues." RFC leader Timan
Erdimi told RFI that what had been agreed was the "principle
of reconciliation and durable peace." He added,"the details
still need to be worked out." As reported in Reftel A, the
question of disarmament appears to be the most contentious,
although the number and level of ministerial appointments is
also considered to be an important point of discussion
between the rebels and the government delegation.

BENIN GROUP SIGNS - LIBREVILLE NEXT?


4. (U) On October 10 agreement was reached between the
Government of Chad and four minor exile groups (RDT, UPTRN,
ANR and GPI) based in Benin (Reftel B). Senior Chadian
Minister Haroun Kabadi (currently Minister of Agriculture,
formerly Coordinator of the National Petroleum Office) led
the negotiation. The agreement followed the same format as
that used for the CDRT. Separate negotiations are reported to
be ongoing with additional groups in Libreville, Gabon, under
the purview of former Chadian President Goukouni Weddeye.

N'DJAMENA RUMOR MILLS RUN ON NOUR


5. (SBU) Meanwhile, speculation on the status of the January
2007 agreement between the GOC and FUC rebel leader Mahamat
Nour keeps the N'Djamena rumor mills working. Given the
unveiled ambition of (now) Defense Minister Nour, the
off-and-on difficulties in integrating FUC troops in the
Chadian army (ANT), and the continuing spikes in conflict

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between Tama and Zaghawa in the Guereda region, most Chadians
think it is only a matter of time before Nour and President
Deby have a falling out. The disposition of FUC troops loyal
to Nour is a source of constant comment (and concern). Last
month rumors circulated that Nour's house had been taken
over; this week the rumor is that he was poisoned and had to
be medevaced to France. In an RFI radio broadcast on October
12 Nour denied that he had been poisoned, and said that his
relationship with President Deby was fine (although he could
not say the same thing for some of Deby's close advisers.)
He said that he hoped to return to Chad soon.

COMMENT
--------------

6. (SBU) With the exception of Nouri and Erdimi, the groups
that have signed peace agreements are marginal and do not
represent a serious threat. However, it is also acknowledged
that Nouri and Erdimi seem to be moving faster towards some
kind of reconciliation than most observers thought possible,
given the deep enmity and profound lack of trust between
these individuals and President Deby.


7. (SBU) What is striking is the lack of confidence that the
average Chadian feels in the stability which external
observers consider the country to have enjoyed since January

2007. Local commentators scoff at the appearances of "peace
breaking out." Most view the accords with the armed
opposition as a "show" and consider all parties - on the
government side as well as the rebel side - to be chronically
untrustworthy. The most jaundiced observers view the
agreement reached August 13 with the political opposition as
a cynical "selling out" by opposition politicians who were
willing to exchange their integrity for another shot at
government positions.


8. (SBU) That being said, those citizens with a grievance are
rapidly finding their mouthpieces vanishing as group after
group puts down their weapons (real or figurative) and comes
in from the cold. Is it just a matter of time before a new
group springs up to protest what is perceived to be the
widespread corruption and relentlessly autocratic governance
of the Deby regime?


9. Minimized considered.
TAMLYN